A scenario: 7 wins this year, 14 next year

1977Hawkeye

1977Hawkeye

Well-Known Member
I was thinking about the rest of this year and next, and let's say this scenario pans out:

This year: We win 7-8 games
Next year: We win 14 or 15 games but still go something like 14-17 or 15-16

Will you be satisfied with the 14-15 wins next year?

I'm sure some will take the view that, hey, we won twice as many games this year as we did last year. We have turned the corner and are improving!

Others, no doubt, will say, well we went 13-19 the first year, 15-17 the second year. We haven't made in progress since the start of Lickliter's tenure!

Which camp will you fall in?

I think myself, I would be the latter. I've always been a bottom-line kind of a guy, and if in year 4, we still haven't had a winning record under Lickliter, it will be time to part ways. IMO, we need to win at least 17-18 next year for me to be satisfied with the direction we're headed.

Are we lowering the bar too much if we are satisfied with a 14-15 win season on the heels of a single-digit win season?

Who knows how things will actually end up, but I'm just curious as to what everyone would think if it plays out this way.
 
Fired, end of story.

4 years of "this" is long enough, personally 2.5 years has been enough for me. The fans are currently making it known how much they disapprove, Carver is basically empty.
 
i think if the admin's ride this out we can turn the corner, but the ? is if they and the fans and boosters are willing to wait that long. "could" be a really good team in 2-3 years, but what about the waste of the first three?
 
1977Hawkeye said:
I was thinking about the rest of this year and next, and let's say this scenario pans out:

This year: We win 7-8 games
Next year: We win 14 or 15 games but still go something like 14-17 or 15-16

Will you be satisfied with the 14-15 wins next year?

I'm sure some will take the view that, hey, we won twice as many games this year as we did last year. We have turned the corner and are improving!

Others, no doubt, will say, well we went 13-19 the first year, 15-17 the second year. We haven't made in progress since the start of Lickliter's tenure!

Which camp will you fall in?

I think myself, I would be the latter. I've always been a bottom-line kind of a guy, and if in year 4, we still haven't had a winning record under Lickliter, it will be time to part ways. IMO, we need to win at least 17-18 next year for me to be satisfied with the direction we're headed.

Are we lowering the bar too much if we are satisfied with a 14-15 win season on the heels of a single-digit win season?

Who knows how things will actually end up, but I'm just curious as to what everyone would think if it plays out this way.
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Seven (7) wins this season will not put bodies in the seats at Carver. Seven wins will not bring in the big bucks donations, even the small bucks donations. The other teams in the Big 10 are are improving and I see nothing that tells me that the team could double their wins next year except in the scenerio that is more likely true that the teams wins 5 games this year, so they only have to win 10 next year.

So I don't think it is a matter of which I like, former or later. It's that the 14 wins are not going to happen.
 
Next year Lick must get this team to post-season play, and at the bare minimum the NIT. If the team has not improved to that point, I support a change. I wrote a "stay the course" letter to Barta this year - and believe that next year is the make-or-break season for Lick.

Putting a target on the number of wins is tough, this year's ream progress won't be measured by the number of wins (at least not by mea) but in how much improvement is or is not seen on the court. ANd there's no telling from season-to-season what lands a team in post-season play.

That written, doubling the win total from this year to next would be very encouraging to most, and it me as well. However, I still plant the flag on post-season tourney opportunities next year.
 
I think we all know which posters will fall on each side in this scenario. If you have been saying give the coaches time, I'm sure 15 wins will be enough to say, wow, they will be making the tourney in year 5. If your in the fire Lick camp you will say, we are only now back to where we were in year 1, so fire Lick.

I think the fact is in either scenario whoever coaches the team in year 5 will be making the tourney. I mean lets face it we will have SR (Gatens, Fuller) JR (Payne, Cougill, May) So (Larson, Brust, Marble, and McCabe). Plus whatever other recruits we get for 2011. That would be a sweet gig to walk into as a 1st year coach, 5 upperclassman with 3 & 4 years worth of game time experience with 4 talented So pushing them during practice, maybe even being starters in some cases.
 
I think it depends on how one defines progress...

IF those wins included wins over some of the top teams in the Big 10, some of the big wins were on the road, and they were competetive (only lost by a few points in all the other games or most of the games), then I think most people would think that Iowa was making progress (compared to how they are losing this year).

If on the other hand, Iowa basically beatsteams like this year, can't win on the road, and only wins a few games (3 or 4) in the Big 10 and those wins are against the bottom teams in the Big 10, then I would say most fans will NOT be very happy.
 
NewMexHawk said:
I think it depends on how one defines progress...

IF those wins included wins over some of the top teams in the Big 10, some of the big wins were on the road, and they were competetive (only lost by a few points in all the other games or most of the games), then I think most people would think that Iowa was making progress (compared to how they are losing this year).

If on the other hand, Iowa basically beatsteams like this year, can't win on the road, and only wins a few games (3 or 4) in the Big 10 and those wins are against the bottom teams in the Big 10, then I would say most fans will NOT be very happy.
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I have to agree NewMexHawk.

I have been on the side of patience and think it will come down to not only wins next year but also competitiveness. 15 wins will not be enough if we aren't competitive in the other games, however, 15 wins with close losses to the upper echelon of the conference will get Lick another year and then as stated above year 5 with Gatens and Fuller as seniors along with the current cast of characters and the incoming recruits will see us back in the 20 to 24 win level.

Only then do I think an extension should even be considered and I am not sure then is even the right time. The ice in Iowa City is getting very thin and the slope very slick. Not sure Lick can ever scramble back over the hump but I hope so as he seems to be a great person who truly wants to win. Just a bad situation coming in and then couple that with some bad luck on injuries and the loss of players and I am afraid the handwiritng is on the wall.
 
The key is to not win anything this year and then 14 wins look great. How far we have slid when another losing season without post season play looks good.
 
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The sad thing about this is all of this because Bowlsby wanted to go to "the next level".

Sure wish we would have understood which level he was talking about!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
I think it should be 3 and done with TL. I don't see any improvement in his 3 years. Not sure if there will be either. I will give him the fact that he salvaged Cole and Gatens. They seem to be the two players that make the most impact on the team. Loosing Tucker may not hurt. If you were to evalute his first three years you could say that he has not shown any improvement among his resume.

Before you jump on the 3 years is not enough wagon, I would say you are wasting your time. You can go through the league on coaches who in there first 3 years made impacts and are still competing in the leauge.

Bo Ryan has got to be the poster-guy of the leauge. He has made Wisconsin a contender every year since stepping foot on campus.

Curtis Painter took a little hit to start but ASAP turn the club around and they two have been to the post season each year.

Bill Carmody is a blue collar guy. He has not really took a step back. Northwestern has been improving year in and year out. They have climbed the steps in the leauge and now he has his team playing upper Big -Ten ball. I don't look for him fall either.

Name slips me but the Penn State head coach has really brought his squad along also. He has one of the most dominating players in the leauge and his team has only gotten better in the past 3 years.

Tubby Smith, Tom Izzo, have a championship backround. Tom Crain came into Indiana with a VERY BARE cobered last year. This year he has his players and has his team improving. They will only get better. I can go on with the rest of coaches but you can see that each team in the past 3 years except for Northwestern have gone to a post season tournament. I expect the Wildcats to be in one this year and probably next year too. TL is a Horizon leauge coach not a Big-Ten.

Next years class is only good on paper and two Brust and Larson seem to be the two that on paper could be some good bench players in the Big-Ten. McGabe and Marble not sure. Not sure if the first two will either. We have not seem them play enough to really say they can save TL's job.

I really want Iowa to finish with a .500 record or better this year. Realistic we all know that it probably won't happen. Especially with the lack of depth. Next year if the week ago rumors about 3 leaving the team comes true then that will really put a damper on the program. The job is to keep players and get them to improve and make impacts.

The best case sceniro next years team with or with out TL is that you have a SR. Cole and a Jr. Gatens that are and will only get better. They are the givens. Those two will make a statement. Who will help? Under TL's system not sure if those two are good enough to carry the team on their back. Then again I hope I am wrong and that this team really plays out of their minds and throws a big crap burger at our faces. This will be determine to be seen.

Bottom line is if any one has some positives about TL's first 3 years Then I will apologize for totally writing him off.
 
I have wanted Coach Lick to get this thing turned around but if last week's rumors come through I will be ready for the change. We can't have another year of players leaving the program and continue down this path. Sad but true, big time college athletics is about the money and right now the University of Iowa is not as profitable in basketball as it should be and that makes the entire athletic department suffer.
 
NewMexHawk said:
I think it depends on how one defines progress...

IF those wins included wins over some of the top teams in the Big 10, some of the big wins were on the road, and they were competetive (only lost by a few points in all the other games or most of the games), then I think most people would think that Iowa was making progress (compared to how they are losing this year).

If on the other hand, Iowa basically beatsteams like this year, can't win on the road, and only wins a few games (3 or 4) in the Big 10 and those wins are against the bottom teams in the Big 10, then I would say most fans will NOT be very happy.
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Unless Iowa makes a miracle run and compete for the Big 10 I don't think most people will care either way.
 
Its not enough, and time isnt on his side ( he has blown three years now ). At Butler he had the benefit of FOUR years of Thad Matta's recruiting ( kind of like Mr. Davis with Raveling's guys ), he started with experienced and successful assistants on his staff (like Jeff Meyer, who had a wonderful record at Liberty. He then was a assistant at Butler with TL until 2004. His stature was strong enough that Mizzou brought him in as a top asst to help stabilize and clean up Snyder's mess, though it was too deep a hole for Snyder to dig out of, and then was sought out by IU to offer stability to Sampson, but was unfortunately soiled by association. Now, he is with Michigan ), and then he comes to IOWA with no assistants or recruiters of note ( and isnt one himself....the blame has to be shared with Barta ) and look at what we have.

We need Scott Drew. He is a TOP notch recruiter, a TOP notch coach, fearless (you would have to be to take the mess that Bliss had left ) to go to a school that had a BIG mess and really wasnt a school with a big BB provenance, and he has results of building a program from a wreck. THAT IS WHO AND WHAT IOWA NEEDS!
 
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Here's the deal. It's going to take a lot more than a little "progress" to get fans back into Carver. I've been saying this for a while. Even a 17-18 win season isn't going to get the necessary amount of fans back into the seats. When you figure in the horrible last three seasons, the boring system, and the apathy that has fallen upon Iowa basketball....I think even giving TL a fourth year is a waste of time. Unless it wins championships, his style just isn't going to excite our fan base enough.

I'm not saying this to be a troll or a jerk. I truly do like TL. But this will be the last year that I am a season ticket holder while he is the head coach. I remember how Iowa basketball was when I was growing up. This product isn't even the same species.

Delaying the inevitable makes no sense. Admit the mistake...drop some cash....and let's get Iowa basketball back to where it's suppose to be.
 
bcl20 said:
Unless Iowa makes a miracle run and compete for the Big 10 I don't think most people will care either way.
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What do you mean in "most people will care either way"? People care. They care whether Iowa wins! That's why the seats at Carver aren't full. They want a winner. Fans would follow a winner. People that I talk to don't think Lick can turn it around and the apathy is getting so great. It is scary how many people are saying they don't even know when the games are on, don't follow the team any more. Have more time to do things since they don't follow the Hawks any more. When this starts happening a program is almost dead in the water. Does Lick really in his mind think he is doing a good job? Does he really think that ending this year with the worst winning percentage in Iowa history and possibly the worst season in modern history is the right course for the Iowa bb program? He is clueless or just stubborn?
 
therealforeverhawk said:
What do you mean in "most people will care either way"? People care. They care whether Iowa wins! That's why the seats at Carver aren't full. They want a winner. Fans would follow a winner. People that I talk to don't think Lick can turn it around and the apathy is getting so great. It is scary how many people are saying they don't even know when the games are on, don't follow the team any more. Have more time to do things since they don't follow the Hawks any more. When this starts happening a program is almost dead in the water. Does Lick really in his mind think he is doing a good job? Does he really think that ending this year with the worst winning percentage in Iowa history and possibly the worst season in modern history is the right course for the Iowa bb program? He is clueless or just stubborn?
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That's pretty much what I meant. The post I responed to was saying that Iowa fans would be satisfied with a handful of wins as long as they were competitive and stole a few on the road.

My point was, most fans won't care about any progress that's being made unless that progress is competing for a Big Ten championship this year. People just don't care about this program right now and won't care about "little victories" and small signs of improvement.
 
I have to say from what I have seen in TL, I really think he is a great guy, but being a nice guy won't fill seats in CHA. I just can't watch any games this year. I turn the game on and I find myself being bored worse than watching paint dry.
 
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