6/20 PTL Stats

[tm3308]

I'm not arguing that Ogs had good numbers. Just that you should talk about them in the context of the season like you do for every other player. When you talk about Gesell, White, Marble or others do you break down what they did in conference VS non conference? No, you do it for Ogelsby only, and that is the very definition of cherry picking.

That's because people point to a pretty obvious outlier as evidence that Oglesby is/will be a good shooter. Marble, White, etc. don't have wildly contradictory numbers (save for Marble post-injury this year).

To use baseball as an analogy: Say you've got a hitter who just tears it up in April and May. He's hitting .450+ with 15 homeruns through the the quarter turn. Then he falls off a cliff and is a .270 hitter the rest of the way. Using a rough average of 535 AB's, that hitter would end the year hitting somewhere around .314. Hardly a bad average but that player wouldn't have been anywhere near as good, over the course of the season, as that average suggests. Such is the case with Oglesby.

If his good games from his freshman year were scattered around a little more, this argument wouldn't have much credence. But to look at his career, and the absolutely abysmal shooting for the last 3/4 of it, it's pretty foolish to think that his 37% mark is anywhere close to an accurate representation of his abilities as a player.

That's not really any different than people pointing to 37%. You're still breaking it down and cherry picking if you do that, only your numbers are a lot more misleading than mine.

 

[deanvogs]

That's because people point to a pretty obvious outlier as evidence that Oglesby is/will be a good shooter. Marble, White, etc. don't have wildly contradictory numbers (save for Marble post-injury this year).

To use baseball as an analogy: Say you've got a hitter who just tears it up in April and May. He's hitting .450+ with 15 homeruns through the the quarter turn. Then he falls off a cliff and is a .270 hitter the rest of the way. Using a rough average of 535 AB's, that hitter would end the year hitting somewhere around .314. Hardly a bad average but that player wouldn't have been anywhere near as good, over the course of the season, as that average suggests. Such is the case with Oglesby.

If his good games from his freshman year were scattered around a little more, this argument wouldn't have much credence. But to look at his career, and the absolutely abysmal shooting for the last 3/4 of it, it's pretty foolish to think that his 37% mark is anywhere close to an accurate representation of his abilities as a player.

That's not really any different than people pointing to 37%. You're still breaking it down and cherry picking if you do that, only your numbers are a lot more misleading than mine.

We all look at things in different ways. I guess I look at his FR #'s and then last years #'s. I don't break it down into conference/non conference, big game, unimportant game, etc. Just as I look at Gatens shooting a good % his Fr. year, then dropped off his So, and Jr. years, only to bounce back with a great Sr. year.

 

[tm3308]

We all look at things in different ways. I guess I look at his FR #'s and then last years #'s. I don't break it down into conference/non conference, big game, unimportant game, etc. Just as I look at Gatens shooting a good % his Fr. year, then dropped off his So, and Jr. years, only to bounce back with a great Sr. year.

Gatens' yearly totals fluctuated, but within those seasons, he was usually pretty consistent (save for the superhuman stretch his senior year). 32 or 33 percent is average, and that's what you could expect from him during those two years in the middle on any given night (and even most of his senior year). Oglesby hasn't given us that, at least not at an average percentage. He's just been consistently bad from behind the arc. He throws in a handful of games that bump his total up a little, but you can usually count on him having a bad night.

Shooting 45% in the first half of his freshman year and shooting 28.8% in the second half begs the question: Which type of shooter is he? Shooting 27% over his sophomore season gives pretty strong evidence that he's not a good college shooter.

Maybe he'll improve. I hope he does. But it's nice knowing we don't have to rely on him to be the go-to guy from deep, because he's demonstrated little ability to be that guy.

 

[tm3308]

If you take away the 5 game stretch in which Gatens played absolutely out of everyone's minds (he shot 71% from behind the arc in that stretch, for Christ's sake), he shot 33% in his senior year. That falls in line with his stats from his sophomore and junior seasons pretty well.

So what's more likely? That Gatens was a 30-35% shooter who got insanely hot for 5 games, or that he was a top-flight shooter who could shoot with the best of them consistently?

 

[wundergrape]

tm3308> You're free in the context of this argument to assert that Oglesby is a poor late season shooter. You've proven that to be true. However, you asserted that he doesn't perform when the bright lights are on. Deanvogs proved that's not always the case.

Take your licks, bro. Move on.

 

[Hawkfnntn]

Being a good passer and an efficient defender is not going to be enough next year at the 2.

The starting 5 will be:
Marble -1
MG - 2
Uthoff -3
White - 4
Woody - 5

Mel, Zach, and Gabe will get front line minutes. Clemmons is a better option as a distributor and defender than Ogs. Jok looks like a better shooter.

At that point your rotation is ten deep.

All of this being said, the second team of

Clemmons - 1
Jok - 2
McCabe - 3
Mel - 4
Gabe - 5

Could be fun to watch. Teams would have to sell out to cover Jok and McCabe leaving Clemmons to drive the line or lob city to Mel and Gabe.

I love the lineup flexibility they will have. It's not even just that they can go small at times (not to start the game necessarily just for handfuls of mins at a time)

1. MG
2. Clemmons
3. Marble
4. White
5. Uthoff.... Gabe or Mel

But they can play big too

1. Marble
2. Uthoff
3 White
4. Gabe
5 Woodbury.

I don't suspect you'll ever see that big lineup together on the court very much if ever at all. I think coach prefers small ball with shooters/ball handlers more. But the the versatility is there and I think as long as this team has good chemistry and click well they should be a tough tough team to match up with.

 

[rschneider]

tm3308> You're free in the context of this argument to assert that Oglesby is a poor late season shooter. You've proven that to be true. However, you asserted that he doesn't perform when the bright lights are on. Deanvogs proved that's not always the case.

Take your licks, bro. Move on.

Exactly, I/we don't care to read two full pages of you two going back and fourth, private message each other.

 

[tm3308]

Exactly, I/we don't care to read two full pages of you two going back and fourth, private message each other.

So don't read it?

It's the offseason for football and basketball. The basketball forum has seen just three threads posted in since this morning. If we banned bickering/tangental debates, there'd be like 4 posts a day at this point.

 

[1hawkeye1]

Exactly, I/we don't care to read two full pages of you two going back and fourth, private message each other.

You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of what a sports forum is for. I enjoy the back and forth, and even more so between these two, because they are respectful and don't resort to name calling. It is possible for people to have different points of perspective.

That being said, Tork is clearly correct.

 

[wundergrape]

Let me clarify, since I was the one who started this argument critique business.

I'm all for back and forth. Hell, I'm the king of stretching out multi-page bickering.

But tm3308 needs to concede that point. Deanvogs shouldn't let him off the hook because he moved the goalpost. You made lots of salient arguments in that discussion, tm. But you predicated the discussion on an assertion that Ogs doesn't perform when it matters. You gotta be held to task for that. The ONLY time he showed up this year was in five or six big games (all of them before new year's, I'll grant you).

 

[HawkeyeShane]

You seem to have a fundamental misunderstanding of what a sports forum is for. I enjoy the back and forth, and even more so between these two, because they are respectful and don't resort to name calling. It is possible for people to have different points of perspective.

That being said, Tork is clearly correct.

Shut up a-hole...

 

[tm3308]

Let me clarify, since I was the one who started this argument critique business.

I'm all for back and forth. Hell, I'm the king of stretching out multi-page bickering.

But tm3308 needs to concede that point. Deanvogs shouldn't let him off the hook because he moved the goalpost. You made lots of salient arguments in that discussion, tm. But you predicated the discussion on an assertion that Ogs doesn't perform when it matters. You gotta be held to task for that. The ONLY time he showed up this year was in five or six big games (all of them before new year's, I'll grant you).

That was more directed at schneider than you. His point was "I/we don't want to read this," not "the argument has already been won, so move on."

 

[wundergrape]

Gotcha.

 

[jacknicholson]

Don't get me wrong, I like our size from guard to center. I think with the addition of Uthoff and Jok, and both Gesell and Clemmons getting another off season under their belt, the shooting woes of last year seem remote to me in 2013-2014...there are just too many options for Fran.

The one area I think we need to improve is rebounding against physical teams and someone who can strike some fear in people driving to the paint...ala Ed Horton. Dude was money on the glass and scared the crap out of people.

Announcers kept saying: That was a man's rebound. I can remember Ed getting a rebound and hearing BJ yelling, Eddie, Eddie to get his attention and the ball.....

 

[jacknicholson]

Schedule - Prime Time

Are there two courts, Woody......

I am thinking about going with my son on Sunday......

 

[woodyk1]

Are there two courts, Woody......

I am thinking about going with my son on Sunday......

Yes, there are 2 courts there. Tomorrow there is 1 game at 3:00 and 2 games at 4:30.

 

[tm3308]

Don't get me wrong, I like our size from guard to center. I think with the addition of Uthoff and Jok, and both Gesell and Clemmons getting another off season under their belt, the shooting woes of last year seem remote to me in 2013-2014...there are just too many options for Fran.

The one area I think we need to improve is rebounding against physical teams and someone who can strike some fear in people driving to the paint...ala Ed Horton. Dude was money on the glass and scared the crap out of people.

I think both Gabe and Woody have potential in that area, particularly Woody. He was pushed around at times last year, but he doesn't play soft. Once he adds more strength and bulk, he can pair that with his already nasty attitude in the paint.

Gabe is just a guy who, if he puts in the necessary work, could be an absolute monster.

 

[wundergrape]

I think both Gabe and Woody have potential in that area, particularly Woody. He was pushed around at times last year, but he doesn't play soft. Once he adds more strength and bulk, he can pair that with his already nasty attitude in the paint.

Gabe is just a guy who, if he puts in the necessary work, could be an absolute monster.

I agree, but we're talking A LOT of work. Walter Payton level work.

 

[tm3308]

I agree, but we're talking A LOT of work. Walter Payton level work.

I definitely don't think we'll see it this year. But there's been nothing to suggest he doesn't bust his butt, and he made tremendous strides just from November to March. He's just scratching the surface.

 

[jacknicholson]

Yes, there are 2 courts there. Tomorrow there is 1 game at 3:00 and 2 games at 4:30.

Thanks once again, Woody....