4th Through 9th in the Big Ten

[ssckelley]

The problem is with Illinois is they only have 1 bad loss (@ Purdue) on their resume. IMO even a 7-11 conference record will get them on the bubble and they may only need to win the first round in the BTT to get in (20 wins overall). On the flip side Iowa already has 2 bad loses on their resume, one could make a case that a 7-11 Illinois team is more deserving than a 9-9 Iowa team. Iowa can still get to 9-9 without really beating anybody.

 

[mehawk]

The problem is with Illinois is they only have 1 bad loss (@ Purdue) on their resume. IMO even a 7-11 conference record will get them on the bubble and they may only need to win the first round in the BTT to get in (20 wins overall). On the flip side Iowa already has 2 bad loses on their resume, one could make a case that a 7-11 Illinois team is more deserving than a 9-9 Iowa team. Iowa can still get to 9-9 without really beating anybody.

I don't know the answer to this and won't take time to look it up, but how many times has a team had that bad of a regular season conference record (7-11) and made the tournament?

If Iowa is 9-9 and Illinois is 7-11, and they both do about the same in the conference tourney, I would have to think that Iowa is in over Illinois easily.

I could be completely wrong though...

 

[WindsorHawk]

I tried to find this a couple different places and didn't come up with anything. I'm pretty sure a team has gotten an at-large bid with an 8-10 record. I'm almost positive no team ever has at 7-11...but I could be wrong.

I don't know the answer to this and won't take time to look it up, but how many times has a team had that bad of a regular season conference record (7-11) and made the tournament?

If Iowa is 9-9 and Illinois is 7-11, and they both do about the same in the conference tourney, I would have to think that Iowa is in over Illinois easily.

I could be completely wrong though...

 

[volhawk50]

I tried to find this a couple different places and didn't come up with anything. I'm pretty sure a team has gotten an at-large bid with an 8-10 record. I'm almost positive no team ever has at 7-11...but I could be wrong.

I think we went 6-12 once and got in. Don't know that for sure.

Edit: couldn't find that. In 04-05 we went 7-9 and got an at-large in the tournament.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Illinois is 1-4 at home in conference play. The home loss to NW (68-54) is a bad loss. They have also lost at home to MN (84-67), MI (74-60) and WI (74-68). That's 4 home losses with 3 being by double digits. Indiana will most likely add a 5th home loss (most likely by double digits) tomorrow night.

Assuming they lose to Indiana...the best Illinois can do is 4-5 on their home court and most of them weren't close. They have 1 road win at Nebraska by 20 because Richardson scored a career high or it would have been closer...watched that game and he was on fire.

I don't think Iowa will make the tournament at 9-9 unless they win at least 2 games in the BTT. I still have them projected to go 10-8 and I think that puts them in with 1 win in the BTT...probably don't deserve to go if they can't get that win. Setting Iowa aside for now I will be stunned if Illinois makes the tournament at 7-11...only scenario I can see being 3 wins in the BTT.

The problem is with Illinois is they only have 1 bad loss (@ Purdue) on their resume. IMO even a 7-11 conference record will get them on the bubble and they may only need to win the first round in the BTT to get in (20 wins overall). On the flip side Iowa already has 2 bad loses on their resume, one could make a case that a 7-11 Illinois team is more deserving than a 9-9 Iowa team. Iowa can still get to 9-9 without really beating anybody.

 

[ssckelley]

Windsor, Illinois loss to Northwestern is not considered a bad loss. Northwestern is still a top 100 team, ofc that can change.

Funny right after my last post I tuned into a Chicago radio station arguing the same point. One said Illinois just needed 5 more wins to get in and the other one disagreed. Keep in mind I am not claiming Illinois gets in with a 7-11 conference record, but they will be a bubble team. The B1G is considered one of the top conferences and they could end up with the top 2 ranked teams after this weekend. Last year Minnesota (6-12) and Northwestern (8-10) were on the bubble but did not get in, however, UConn got an at large from the Big East with a 8-10 conference record.

Right now the B1G is a 6 bid conference, Iowa and Illinois are the only other schools with a reasonable chance for an at large but both have a lot of work to do.

 

[WindsorHawk]

It will be interesting to see what happens if Iowa goes 10-8 and Illinois goes 8-10...regardless of how they each get there. We have our current wins over Iowa State and Wisconsin and most likely (in this scenario) 2 out of 3 against Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois still to be played...to get to 10-8.

Illinois has their out of conference wins plus Ohio State and the 4 projected wins yet to come. They also have to win 2 most likely out of Minnesota, Iowa and Ohio State.

Illinois is then in with this chain of events. Does the Big Ten get 8 if Iowa then wins their 1st round game in the BTT? I think Iowa makes 8 in the dance if we are close in our 2nd round game of the BTT and/or we beat Illinois head to head...meaning they got their wins elsewhere. Your thoughts Kelley...

 

[Section136]

Last year Minnesota (6-12) and Northwestern (8-10) were on the bubble but did not get in

Umm, not really.

NU grabbed a 4 seed in the NIT, which means they were around the 13-16 team left out of the Big Dance.

Minnesota was seeded 6th, which means they were between 20-23 in order of teams who did not make the NCAA tourney.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I am applying the same rationale as I have throughout this thread. Ohio State and Wisconsin are off the list since both almost certainly will be in the top 5...so this is now for 6th through 9th. Iowa is still in good shape. Now it's time to get these 7 wins on the back end of the schedule.

IA = 10
MN = 9
PU = 7
IL = 6

 

[volhawk50]

Illinois is then in with this chain of events. Does the Big Ten get 8 if Iowa then wins their 1st round game in the BTT? I think Iowa makes 8 in the dance if we are close in our 2nd round game of the BTT and/or we beat Illinois head to head...meaning they got their wins elsewhere.

We are currently 37th in Sagarin, 33rd in Pomeroy. Illinois is 51st in Sagarin, 56th in Pomeroy. Based on this, if we can get 7 more wins (maybe only 6), then it will be up to Illinois to be the eighth team in the tournament.

 

[clicheusername3]

We are currently 37th in Sagarin, 33rd in Pomeroy. Illinois is 51st in Sagarin, 56th in Pomeroy. Based on this, if we can get 7 more wins (maybe only 6), then it will be up to Illinois to be the eighth team in the tournament.

With an RPI in the 90's right now. Remember, the KP/Sag and RPI are going to come together more and more as the season ends, so don't expect to be sitting at those #'s at the end.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I am applying the same rationale as I have throughout this thread. Ohio State and Wisconsin are off the list since both almost certainly will be in the top 5...so this is now for 6th through 9th. I added a win to Illinois' total for beating Indiana last night.

IA = 10
MN = 9
PU = 7
IL = 7

 

[ssckelley]

Illinois upsetting Indiana last night hurts Iowa's chances to get into the NCAA, IMO. Like I said before a 8-10 or 7-11 Illinois team has a better NCAA resume than a 9-9 Iowa team and now they can add a win over Indiana to their impressive quality win list of Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio State. It would be a first time if the B1G got 8 teams into the tournament.

 

[WindsorHawk]

The math (number of wins has to equal number of losses) almost makes it impossible to get 8 out of 10 teams in the tournament. We are now a 12 team league...haven't been for very long. This is also the best the Big Ten has been in a long long time.

The committee says they don't look at how many teams there are from a conference but which team is most deserving. We have to be in the group of deserving teams. I don't think the selection committee will say "Okay, it's time to decide between Iowa and Illinois because we all know the Big Ten only gets 7."

 

[ohhawk]

The Barta Barometer says Iowa risks being the only member in the BIG not having a participant in either the bowls or the upcoming Big Dance with their men's big money programs. Illinois looks to be the only one to possibly challenge our sole possession in this less than elite club.

 

[WindsorHawk]

We took care of NW and Michigan State took care of Purdue. These numbers are still on track. Illinois plays at Minnesota tomorrow so Iowa wins either way IMO.

I am applying the same rationale as I have throughout this thread. Ohio State and Wisconsin are off the list since both almost certainly will be in the top 5...so this is now for 6th through 9th. I added a win to Illinois' total for beating Indiana last night.

IA = 10
MN = 9
PU = 7
IL = 7