I basically agree with everything I read above. My take:
Fran has done a solid job of getting the program back on his feet, though the recruiting has been hit and miss, peaks and valleys.
Woody and Gesell were critical commits though I think we mostly all agree that those guys didn't quite live up to their 4* rankings. But at the time, they were huge gets for the program. They were still contributors, though.
Let me throw out a few "what if's":
- What if Aaron White doesn't go from a 2-3* recruit to the program's #2 all time scorer? Most don't.
- What if Peter Jok doesn't get hurt and fall off everyone's radar, and goes to a blue blood instead of Iowa?
- What if Devyn Marble decided he didn't want to play for Lickliter just because his dad played at Iowa? He also really outperformed his "ranking" as well.
- What if Jarrod Uthoff didn't decide to leave Wisconsin?
If not for all that, maybe Fran finds other options and everything turns out fine, or maybe he doesn't and the first 5 years are a total failure and he's shown the door. I give full credit to Fran for finding these guys and taking advantage, absolutely. But that's a lot of talent that IMO was fairly fortuitous and could easily have not been available. But it is what it is, and it still counts. After that, there were a couple of disastrous recruiting classes. Fleming, Wagner, Uhl, etc. etc. No need to elaborate. But some better hits as of late: Cook, Moss, JBo, Wieskamp, etc. This newest class has me very much once again very concerned, though, a'la 2014 or so, as the OP mentioned. Zero recruits to this point in the 2020 class that have even a single P5 offer besides Iowa.
As for the program, I feel Fran has things CLOSE to where Mr. Davis had them though maybe just a hair short. If he keeps getting us back to the dance with more regularity, I'll be more comfortable saying that we ARE back to that point. I want to see it sustained a little longer, though.
I don't put a lot of stock in the "we were a second away from the Sweet 16" stuff, though. Upsets happen, or almost happen, all the time in the tournament. And, Steve Alford took SWMS to the Sweet 16 and we all know how things worked out for him at Iowa. I look more at full seasons than I do what happens in 1 or 2 tournament games. It's fluky. That said, it does irk the crap out of me that we have just ONE Sweet 16 since 1988. That speaks volumes about the program when you look at that long time frame.
Fran hasn't really raised the bar, but he is hardly the embarrassment some make him out to be, either. Solid coach, just hasn't gotten us to that next level. I honestly don't think he ever will, unless recruiting picks up.