2013 Big 10 Review and NCAA Seeding Predictions

twade70

Well-Known Member
125
So I’m assuming everyone else is as concerned as I am about McD’s prospects for his 3rd national title (let alone a 4th appearance in the NCAA finals). He really struggled against the 8th seed, Malone, in the quarters match, gutting out a 5-4 win on a riding time point. Then a painful match vs. Delgado in the final. Going into the weekend, I had the seeds as:

1. Waters (Mizzou) 25-0 (W over McDonough, 2 Ws over Garrett)
2. McDonough (Iowa) 17-2 (W over Megaludis, Garrett, Ls to Waters, Delgado)
3. Megaludis (PSU) 20-2 (W over Delgado, Garrett, Ls to McDonough, Zanetta)
4. Garnett (VA Tech) 25-2 (W over Delgado, Ls to Soto, Kraisser)
5. Delgado (Illinois) 18-3 (Ls to Megaludis, Garnett, Cory Clark)

So Delgado knocks off both McDonough and Megaludis. Waters wins the MACs, Garnett wins ACCs (where he avenges his loss to Kraisser). Now, we could see Delgado jump into the #2 seed, but there’s a chance Garnett gets it based on his win over Delgado in the Midlands final. I’ll give Delgado the benefit of the doubt as he just dominated the #2 and #3 ranked wrestlers this weekend. Not sure if they’ll jump Garnett over McD (McD does have a W over Garnett, but it was in the 2011 Midlands final), but I’m guessing they’ll give McD the nod based on his career resume.

1. Waters
2. Delgado
3. McDonough
4. Garnett
5. Megaludis

133
After dominating all season, it was strange to see Tony struggle a bit on Saturday in a 9-5 win over Quiroga and a 3-1 win over Graff. I’m chalking it up to him being so focused on taking down Stieber that he was just doing what he could to get to the final. The Graff matchup had to be a bit of a mental hurdle – Graff knocked Tony off in the 2011 Big 10 semi – if Tony would have won that match, Iowa wins the tourney as they only lost by 1 point to PSU in the conference tournament. It was Stieber and Tony as the #1 and #2 seeds this weekend; it will be the same in DSM.

141
After a disastrous end to the regular season (he came into Big 10s off 3 consecutive losses), it was good to see Ballweg have success this weekend. A very nice win over Dardanes in the semis. Unfortunately, Stieber looked to be on a completely different level in the final. Ballweg had no answer for Stieber’s leg attacks. However, Ballweg did some good things for his NCAA seeding. Pre-Conference tournament, I had it:

1. Maple (OU) 22-0
2. Stieber (Ohio St) 27-0
3. Mangrum (Oregon St) 32-4 (Ls to Stieber, Futrell, Undrakhbayar, Jackson)
4. Port (Edinboro) 28-3 (Ls to Maple, Stieber, Mangrum)
5. Henderson (UNC) 30-6 (2 Ls to Port, L to Cimato, 3 Ls to Carter)
6. Undrakhbayar (Citadel) 34-4 (2 Ls to Henderson, L to Nevinger, Carter)
7. Nevinger (Cornell) 32-9 (L to Maple, Stieber, Graff, Mangrum, Vaith, Hucke,
8. Dardanes (MN) 22-6 (L to Stieber, Mangrum, Nevinger, Ballweg, Feikert, Vaith)
9. Ballweg (IA) 18-4 (L to Stieber, Port, Nevinger, Dardanes)

The top 6 all won their conference tournaments. Nevinger got knocked off in the semis of EIWAs, but came back to finish 3rd. Based on conference results, I don’t see a lot of changes to seeding:

1. Maple
2. Stieber
3. Mangrum
4. Port
5. Henderson
6. Undrakhbayar
7. Nevinger
8. Ballweg
9. Dardanes

149
Dwieza really gave it a go this weekend. Too bad we didn’t have any other serviceable 141 pounders on the roster this year. That would have allowed Dwieza to bump up to 149 for the full season, rather than backup Ballweg and go to 149 for the Big 10s. I think he’ll do just fine next year at 141. I’m trying to stay positive, but I’m worried 149 may be a lot of what we saw this year.

157
While it was disappointing, that semis result wasn’t exactly shocking. DSJ barely knocked off Green in the dual this year – just a bad matchup for him. Good to see DSJ come back to finish 3rd. That win over Alton in the consis was huge. Now as far as seeding for NCAA, I’m really curious to see what the committee does. Pre conference tourneys, I think it would have been:

1. St. John (IA) 22-1 (L to Bradley)
2. Welch (NW) 25-1 (L to Green)
3. Napoli (Lehigh) 18-2 (L to Welch, St. John)
4. Fleming (Clarion) 28-2 (L to Welch, Walsh)
5. Alton (PSU) 22-3 (L to Napoli, Fleming, St. John)
6. Green (NEB) 18-3 (L to Ivanov, Bonin, St. John)

DSJ loses to Green, but comes back to get 3rd. Welch knocks off Green in the final. Napoli wins EIWAs. Fleming was injured at the EWLs and had to pull out. Not sure if this is going to be a factor for NCAAs. Alton has a disaster of a Big 10 tournament losing to Demas, St. John and freaking Zilverberg. I think DSJ’s early season win over Napoli keeps him as the #2 seed, but we’ll have to see how the committee treats it. I was pretty nervous when Green looked to be in control of the finals match vs. Welch before Welch got the pin. A win by Green there would have really thrown a wrench in things. As long as DSJ stays away from Green, I like his chances vs. anyone else in this bracket. He absolutely owns Welch (career record of 5-0 vs. Welch). I’m really worried that the committee is going to put Green and DSJ on the same side. Regardless, I think there’s a decent chance Green gets upset before a semis matchup vs. DSJ if it shakes out that way. Anyway, for now I don’t think the committee jumps Green that far and I see it going:

1. Welch
2. St. John
3. Napoli
4. Fleming
5. Green

165
C’mon Nick Moore. He beats Yohn the first 3 times he faces him this year and then loses in the 3rd place match – when he had Yohn taken down and to his back before Yohn somehow rolled him through to get his own winning TD. Brutal. Going into the conference tourneys, Moore was a border line top 12 seed. After Big 10s, he could still get the 12 seed, but not sure it’s going to happen. I’m going to say he goes in unseeded.

174
Out of all the results on Sunday, this one probably stung the most for me. With Storley’s brutal Saturday (losing to the 8 seed Yates and the 4 seed Heflin and wrestling for 7th place), a #2 seed at NCAAs was just sitting there for Evans. All he had to do was knock off Brown, a guy he’d beaten a month before in a nail-biter, but with Evans’s propensity to pull out close victories to all opponents not named Chris Perry or Logan Storley, I felt pretty good about his chances. Evans lost this match because of bad luck – he was going for a shot and just got in a bad position and put to his back. Would have liked to see him do a better job of battling back, but I think he was just stunned. Anyway, pre-conference tournament I think it was:

1. Storley (MN) 22-1 (L to Perry)
2. Perry (Okie St) 30-2 (L to Porter, Storley)
3. Evans (IA) 17-3 (L to Perry, 2 Ls to Storley)
4. Kokesh (NEB) 28-2 (L to Storley, Evans)
5. Brown (PSU) 21-4 (L to Storley, Evans, Kokesh, Heflin)
6. Asper (MD) 17-1 (L to Blanton)
7. Heflin (OSU) 12-3 (L to Storley, Evans, Porter)

Storley had the aforementioned flameout. Perry wins Big 12s. Kokesh loses to Blanton in the Big 10 quarters but then avenges that loss in the 3rd place match. Brown beats Evans to win Big 10s. Asper wins ACCs. Heflin loses to Brown and Blanton at Big 10s. I struggled with this one, but based on past experience, the seeding committee normally places a TON of importance on 2 things: conference tourney results and pretty records. Based on this, I think we see Asper (who btw got screwed last year by the seeding committee who suffered his first loss of the year in the ACC final and was rewarded with the freaking 7 seed) get the 2 seed.

1. Perry
2. Asper
3. Storley
4. Brown
5. Evans
6. Kokesh

184
That was hands down the best Ethen’s looked all year. I’m shocked he dominated Ihnen the way he did in the 3rd place match. He still looks completely outsized for 184 (Ihnen had a good 3-4 inches on him), but hopefully he’s starting to feel more comfortable here – his confidence at least should be sky high. Unfortunately, he’s still not going to get a great seed for the tourney. Pre-conference tourneys:

1. Ruth (PSU) 24-0
2. Bennett (CMU) 23-0
3. Hamlin (Lehigh) 22-2 (L to Ruth, Bennett)
4. Bosak (Cornell) 20-2 (L to Ruth, Hamlin)
5. Steinhaus (MN) 22-1 (L to Bosak)
6. Loder (UNI) 28-3 (L to Larson, 2 Ls to Rutt)
7. Sheptock (MD) 34-3 (L to Ruth, Bennett, Loder)
8. Ihnen (NEB) 21-4 (L to Ruth, Bosak, Steinhaus, Loder)
9. Swartz (BSU) 27-3 (L to Steinhaus, Ihnen, Loder)
10. Rinaldi (Rut) 24-4 (L to Ruth, Hamlin, Sheptock, Ihnen)
11. Chionuma (Okie St.) 22-8 (3 Ls to Steinhaus, L to Bosak, Rutt, Loder, Beard, Larson)
12. Larson (Mizzou) 24-9 (L to Rutt, Bosak, Steinhaus, Ihnen, Ruth, Bennett, Loder, 2Ls to Chionuma)

Ruth beats Steinhaus in the Big 10 final. Bennett wins the MACs over Loder. Hamlin had an injury and defaulted out of EIWAs (which Bosak won). Sheptock wins ACCs. Ihnen loses to Steinhaus and then Lofthouse at Big 10s. Swartz wins Pac12s. Rinaldi loses to Bosak and then some schmo from Brown at EIWAs. Chionuma wins Big 12s. Larson loses to Loder at MACs but comes back to get 3rd. Here’s how I see NCAA seeding shaking out:

1. Ruth
2. Bennett
3. Bosak
4. Hamlin
5. Steinhaus
6. Loder
7. Sheptock
8. Swartz
9. Chionuma
10. Larson
11. Lofthouse
12. Ihnen

197

Really nice tourney for Burak. Good to see him get over the hump against a quality wrestler, knocking off Gonzalez in the quarters. He still can’t figure out Schiller, but it was good to see him stay aggressive throughout a very close match. Nice job, wrestled above his seed. However, the Big 10 is super weak at this weight. He’s going to be unseeded in the tournament.

HWT

After Ethen, Telford was the other Hawkeye who really looked to be firing on all cylinders this weekend. He seems to be getting closer with Nelson, just can’t seem to finish that single once he gets a hold of the leg. I’m glad to see he’s changing his strategy by going neutral when it’s his choice. Pre-conference tourney, I had it:

1. Nelson (MN) 24-1 (L to Bradley)
2. Gelogaev (Okie St.) 22-3 (2 Ls to Nelson, L to Bradley)
3. Bradley (Mizzou) 31-1 (L to Gelogaev)
4. Hanke (Oregon St.) 30-3 (L to Nelson, Bradley, McClure)
5. Telford (IA) 16-5 (2 Ls to Nelson, L to Gelogaev, L to Bradley, L to Capone)
6. McMullan (NW) 16-1 (L to Chalfant)
7. Thomusseit (Pitt) 22-2 (L to Gelogaev, Hanke)
8. McClure (MSU) 27-3 (L to Nelson, Medbery, Gingrich)
9. Trice (CMU) 19-3 (L to Bradley, Hanke, McClure)

Nelson beats McMullan in the Big 10 Final. Gelogaev breezes through the Big 12s. Bradley beats Trice in the MAC Final. Hanke wins Pac12s. Telford loses to Nelson, but comes back to finish 3rd at Big 10s. Thomusseit wins EWLs. McClure flames out at Big 10s, getting dominated by Telford and then getting pinned by Apland in the consi semis. There’s a clear top 3 at this weight. After that, I’m not sure how they’re going to seed it. I’ll go:

1. Nelson
2. Gelogaev
3. Bradley
4. Hanke
5. McMullan
6. Telford
7. Thomusseit
8. Trice
 
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Good run down. I agree with McD getting the 3 seed, which isn't that bad. As long as he doesn't slip to 4 I think he'll be fine. My thoughts are Waters, Garnett and Mega would all be on the top side of the bracket...leaving Delgado and McD on the bottom. Best case scenario someone knocks off Delgado and McD makes the finals. Worst case scenario McD gets another shot at Delgado. Yes, Delgado has McD figured out, but right now I guarantee there's no one else that McD wants to wrestle. He's obviously ticked at how he wrestled in the finals...he threw his medal in the trash! If McD gets the 3 seed, that's not that bad.

Yes, it was disappointing not having any champions this year, but all in all they wrestled decent. Ramos is so close to beating Stieber, Ballweg made finals, Burak & Lofthouse surprised me, Telford is right there and DSJ got a wake up call.
 


I can't believe how fast Ramos got off of bottom. I think now the confidence and technique is there to take the shots and not worry about going underneath.
 


PSU had a "murder's row" with 4 straight conference champions. I think there's a realistic possibility that out of the four, they come away with only 1 title (ruth). Plus the way Steinhaus slowed him down a little, maybe he's not going to bonus all the way through the tourney again.

125 McD 3rd- I just don't see how he stops Delgado. It wasn't a move here a there that is preventing him from winning. Delgado is getting takedowns from position, and the way he rides (by going to the legs and out in front) just eats up riding time.

133 Ramos 1st- no he can get out, and the energy of being in Iowa will put him over the top.

141 Ballweg RD 12- little more on the conservative side until I hear more about his knee. Sounds like he tweaked it against Minny, and it seemed to bother him against Steiber.

157 DSJ 1st- I know Green is his nemesis, but man does he gas hard. I still can't believe DSJ couldn't mount a comeback in the third. Maybe some who was able to see the match can better explain what happened. Welch, we beat him all the time. The guy that scares me here is Demas.


165 Moore 8th- I still think is AA material, will just take the right bracket.


174 Evans 4th- Yet to see him get over the Storley hump. I think Brown beats him in the 3rd place match. His strength really seems to wear Evans out pretty good.

184 Lofthouse 8th- seems to be wrestling better but will probably have a tough 1st round match and have to work hard through the bottom bracket.

197 Burak 1-2- great 1st season for the freshman. Next year he will be a beast.

HWT Telford 2nd- as long as he stays on the opposite side of Nelson. If not he gets 3rd.
 




Pump I really like those predictions. Ramos will need to pull the trigger to get past Stieber and hopefully the Iowa fans can help

Iowa fans were pretty quite at assembly hall unless there was a bad call


Twade as always great work
 


Asper might of won the conference championship but other then wrestling Blanton and losing to him, he hasn't wrestled anyone.
 


Nice breakdown Twade.

Here are my placement predictions for the Hawks at NCAA's.

125 McD 3rd - 4th

133 Ramos: 2nd

141 Ballweg RD 12: Hopefully Mark can score big pts for the team in consolation rounds.

157 DSJ: 2nd - 5th: Just depends which DSJ shows up for nationals.

165 Moore: RD 12: Hopefully can score some points in Consolation rounds.

174 Evans: Anywhere from 2nd - 7th place. This weight class can be won by any of the top 8.

184 Lofthouse: RD of 12: Needs to score big pts in consolation rounds.

197 Burak: Hopeful he scores pts in consolation rounds. Expect him to lose 2nd Rd match.

HWT Telford: 5th - 7th place.

As a team I think the Hawks take 3rd or 4th place at NCAA's. Could possibly take 2nd if McD, Ramos, and DSJ all make it to the finals.....but that's a very big if.
 


Asper might of won the conference championship but other then wrestling Blanton and losing to him, he hasn't wrestled anyone.

You're absolutely right. If I was in charge of the seeding committee, I would whole-heartedly agree with you. However, the seeding committee historically hasn't done things that make sense. I'm just going off my best guess and I see Asper as the logical beneficiary of the craziness that was the Big 10 tournament. If I was in charge, I'd have it:

1. Perry
2. Storley
3. Evans
4. Brown
5. Kokesh
6. Asper
 




I don't necessarily have black and gold glasses, but I am an eternal optimist. And I really like seeing our wrestlers win their final match (meaning they place 1st, 3rd, 5th or 7th). So...here's how they win the tournament - and no, I don't think these are unreasonable predictions at all - each wrestler has proven or shown the ability to place this high.

1st - McDonough
1st - Ramos
5th - Ballweg
1st - St. John
3rd - Evans
7th - Lofthouse
5th - Telford

Moore and Burak contributing to team points but not placing.

With these results, the Hawks stand a very good chance of winning the title.
 




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