2012-13 Minutes & Roster Predictions

[1977Hawkeye]

I was a little bored this morning so took a look at this year's roster and made my best guess on who I think will get the minutes this year, and some speculation on who the starting 5 may be.

I assumed 200 minutes available per game (40 minute game * 5 players on the court), and here's what I came up with, with the "average" minutes played per game in parentheses. I didn't list walk-ons or Uthoff, who is not eligible this year:

(35) Devyn Marble G
(30) Mike Gesell PG
(25) Zach McCabe F
(25) Aaron White F
(20) Melsahn Basabe F
(15) Eric May SG
(15) Josh Oglesby G
(10) Gabe Olaseni C
(10) Adam Woodbury C
(5) Anthony Clemmons PG
(5) Patrick Ingram G
(5) Kyle Meyer F

This is all subject to fluctuation of course based on who is playing well, injuries, etc. Guess I expect Gesell to get the lion's share of minutes at the point, with Clemmons & Ingram coming in to give him a breather, and Marble obviously can play some point as needed.

May saw his minutes shrink late last year, but based on experience and being healthy, I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt at this point to get 15+.

Seem like there are alot of guys in the front court who could earn minutes this year, so I figured somewhere in the 20's for our regular bigs.

I'm not convinced that my "top 5" in minutes played are necessarily your starting five, though. That would be 3 forwards. Do you start May/Oglesby and bring maybe Basabe/McCabe off the bench and go a bit smaller? Or do you go big at some point in the season and put Woody in the starting 5 at some point in the season, or go with White/McCabe/Basabe?

Will Clemmons & Gesell split time more evenly than I listed above?

One thing that seems certain is that we have more depth and options this year, so alot of guys could get minutes. I'm curious as to how you guys think it will shake out.

 

[doclee]

Glad you were bored! This is an interesting post. Not much to argue with at this point. The recent announcement that McCabe would be moved to forward was interesting and may hint at what Fran may have in mind for the center position. More time for Olesani? More minutes than we may expect for Adam W.? Of course, I would be thrilled if these two guys came around and then we could watch the fight for minutes at the forward positions. I am also fascinated with the potential at the point guard. I am really hopeful that Marble won't spend a lot of time there, since I want him on the wing. Ogelsby may also surprise...I have seen some flashes in his defense and general floor play that have impressed. I think Basabe is a wild card as well. Could he see some minutes at the center position, or will he be on the wing fighting for minutes? Can't wait!

 

[JerkyHerky]

There's no way white doesn't play at least thirty minutes a game. He's far too versatile and does way too much to be off the court for nearly 40 percent of game action.

 

[conn53victor]

I looked at Fran's Siena teams, skipping his first year as a transition. Here's what he did at Siena:

Sienna 2009-10 (Fran's Fifth year)
9 players in double figure minutes
4 with more than 30 minutes/game
1 with more than 20 minutes
3 with more than 10 minutes
next player had less than 6 minutes/ game

Sienna 2008-09 (Fran's Fourth year)
8 players in double figure minutes
4 with more than 30 minutes/game
1 with more than 20 minutes
4 with more than 9 minutes
next player had less than 5 minutes/ game

Sienna 2007-08 (Fran's Third year)
8 players in double figure minutes
3 with more than 30 minutes/game
2 with more than 20 minutes
3 with more than 9 minutes
2 player had more than 8 minutes/ game

Sienna 2006-07 (Fran's Second year)
8 players in double figure minutes
2 with more than 30 minutes/game
4 with more than 20 minutes
2 with more than 9 minutes
next player had more than 8 minutes/ game

source:
Siena Saints Official Athletic Site - Men's Basketball

 

[pmchawk]

I see it more like this. I struggle with saying anyone will average 30+ minutes.

(30) Devyn Marble G
(25) Aaron White F
(25) Mike Gesell PG
(20) Zach McCabe F
(20) Melsahn Basabe F
(15) Anthony Clemmons PG
(15) Eric May SG
(15) Josh Oglesby G
(10) Gabe Olaseni C
(10) Adam Woodbury C
(10) Kyle Meyer F
(5) Patrick Ingram G

 

[Travisam]

Aaron White will play 30 minutes. Period.

 

[CRPodhaj]

PMC- I basically agree with you top to bottom. The only player getting 30 minutes will be Marble. The coach has the horses and he will want to run. In the the post above you can see, usually, he goes with a top eight, plus one that gets some regular play. You can see the top eight very clearly, with the two young true centers being the ninth and tenth pieces so coach can mix and match. The only glaring weakness is the inexperience of the point guards. That is it.

 

[Foval21]

I see it more like this. I struggle with saying anyone will average 30 minutes.(30) Devyn Marble G (25) Aaron White F (25) Mike Gesell PG(20) Zach McCabe F (20) Melsahn Basabe F(15) Anthony Clemmons PG (15) Eric May SG (15) Josh Oglesby G (10) Gabe Olaseni C (10) Adam Woodbury C(10) Kyle Meyer F (5) Patrick Ingram G

i am close to this...4 players different.

1) white - 30 min: he was a 27 min guy last yr as a frosh at the end of the yr i would be surprised if he isnt at that or at 30 min. he will be a defensive liability at the 3 but if basabe and olaseni can block some shots they could make up for him enough to warrant time there instead of always at the 4.

2) ogelsby - 20 or 25 min: he is our only true 3 pt threat we need him on the court at least 20 min. i feel he will really surprise people with how good his game will be on both sides of the court.

3) ingram - 0 min: i think he redshirts or plays only in mop up time. he doesnt seem ready to me (obviously just highlight viewing) but he has no outside shot and he is short for a sg especially if you only finish at the basket.

4) meyer - 0 or 5 min: i think he is another redshirt possibility as he is very thin and with mccabe being more of a 4 i see meyer as being more of a 5. which means he is also behind woody and olaseni in depth along with basabe and mccabe (who both will play some at the 5).

 

[activebadger]

In college basketball today teams can easily survive playing 5-7 guys major minutes even against teams that like to run. Assuming no injuries a 5-7 man rotation where multiple players play 30+ minutes is totally realistic.

There is a stoppage in play every 4 minutes for official TV timeouts. Each team has 5 timeouts and the halftime. Factor in stops for foul shots and the players only really need to play in short spurts.

Also factor in that today's college athletes condition themselves year round. There are very few guys that can't play 25+ minutes per game. People think that Ohio State's depth is going to give them problems every year and every year they are proven wrong.

The NCAA tournament there are even longer stoppages in play so there is even more recovery time.

 

[Tmoney12]

In college basketball today teams can easily survive playing 5-7 guys major minutes even against teams that like to run. Assuming no injuries a 5-7 man rotation where multiple players play 30 minutes is totally realistic.There is a stoppage in play every 4 minutes for official TV timeouts. Each team has 5 timeouts and the halftime. Factor in stops for foul shots and the players only really need to play in short spurts.Also factor in that today's college athletes condition themselves year round. There are very few guys that can't play 25 minutes per game. People think that Ohio State's depth is going to give them problems every year and every year they are proven wrong. The NCAA tournament there are even longer stoppages in play so there is even more recovery time.

and?

 

[zhawk21]

i am close to this...4 players different.

1) white - 30 min: he was a 27 min guy last yr as a frosh at the end of the yr i would be surprised if he isnt at that or at 30 min. he will be a defensive liability at the 3 but if basabe and olaseni can block some shots they could make up for him enough to warrant time there instead of always at the 4.

2) ogelsby - 20 or 25 min: he is our only true 3 pt threat we need him on the court at least 20 min. i feel he will really surprise people with how good his game will be on both sides of the court.

3) ingram - 0 min: i think he redshirts or plays only in mop up time. he doesnt seem ready to me (obviously just highlight viewing) but he has no outside shot and he is short for a sg especially if you only finish at the basket.

4) meyer - 0 or 5 min: i think he is another redshirt possibility as he is very thin and with mccabe being more of a 4 i see meyer as being more of a 5. which means he is also behind woody and olaseni in depth along with basabe and mccabe (who both will play some at the 5).

There is zero chance Ingram redshirts. One of the main reasons Pat signed with Iowa was because he was told by Fran that he would play significant minutes. The only player that will possibly RS like you said is Meyer with the depth at PF/C and I believe a slow adjustment to the college game.

 

[Foval21]

i am close to this...4 players different.1) white - 30 min: he was a 27 min guy last yr as a frosh at the end of the yr i would be surprised if he isnt at that or at 30 min. he will be a defensive liability at the 3 but if basabe and olaseni can block some shots they could make up for him enough to warrant time there instead of always at the 4.2) ogelsby - 20 or 25 min: he is our only true 3 pt threat we need him on the court at least 20 min. i feel he will really surprise people with how good his game will be on both sides of the court.3) ingram - 0 min: i think he redshirts or plays only in mop up time. he doesnt seem ready to me (obviously just highlight viewing) but he has no outside shot and he is short for a sg especially if you only finish at the basket.4) meyer - 0 or 5 min: i think he is another redshirt possibility as he is very thin and with mccabe being more of a 4 i see meyer as being more of a 5. which means he is also behind woody and olaseni in depth along with basabe and mccabe (who both will play some at the 5).

There is zero chance Ingram redshirts. One of the main reasons Pat signed with Iowa was because he was told by Fran that he would play significant minutes. The only player that will possibly RS like you said is Meyer with the depth at PF/C and I believe a slow adjustment to the college game.

well if he was told significant minutes as a frosh i would file that under he was lied to. significant minutes is at least 10 min to me. i have yet to see anyone list him at more than 5. with the theory mccabe will play at the 4 sometimes that makes me think that white will play more at the 3 than originally thought (even though i dont think he should). this means more time for marble at the 2 along with the fact that gesell will play at the 2 some and ogelsby will probably be around 20 min i dont see how ingram will get on the court. i feel like him not playing in the ptl will hurt his chances also as he wont have as much time with the team. ingram and clemmons are going to be battling for minutes even though they play different positions...and from video and the fact ac is in iowa i give him the leg up.

maybe "significant minutes" means something different to you and ingram but to me he isnt even sniffing that.

 

[zhawk21]

(30) Devyn Marble G-F
(25) Mike Gesell PG
(25) Aaron White F
(20) Zach McCabe F
(20) Melsahn Basabe F
(18) Josh Oglesby SG
(17) Adam Woodbury C
(15) Pat Ingram SG-SF
(10) Eric May F
(10) Gabe Olaseni C
(10) Anthony Clemmons PG
(0) Kyle Meyer F

 

[JerkyHerky]

well if he was told significant minutes as a frosh i would file that under he was lied to. significant minutes is at least 10 min to me. i have yet to see anyone list him at more than 5. with the theory mccabe will play at the 4 sometimes that makes me think that white will play more at the 3 than originally thought (even though i dont think he should). this means more time for marble at the 2 along with the fact that gesell will play at the 2 some and ogelsby will probably be around 20 min i dont see how ingram will get on the court. i feel like him not playing in the ptl will hurt his chances also as he wont have as much time with the team. ingram and clemmons are going to be battling for minutes even though they play different positions...and from video and the fact ac is in iowa i give him the leg up.

maybe "significant minutes" means something different to you and ingram but to me he isnt even sniffing that.

Ahhh, it feels good to have these problems. Remember the good ol' days when we were starting third string D3 point guards and giving them major minutes?