A reader recently posted a thread on HN that addressed expectations for the upcoming football season. The thread asked, "What record would you take?"
The answers varied from 13-0 to, "I would be satisfied with a 9-4 record."
Obviously, everyone would "take" an undefeated season, but if we're to believe the original post was asking for a threshold of satisfaction for this year --- the comment about being satisfied with a 9-4 record really got me thinking.
I've also had a number of conversations in recent weeks with fellow Hawkeyes fans about what record we should "expect" out of this team based on what we know right now.
The answers varied almost as much as that original thread.
These examples are enough proof to me that the Hawkeye fanbase is clearly divided in what it expects out of the 2010 season... and before I go any further, I want to throw one word out there, address it and then remove it from the rest of the conversation.
That word is "hope."
We all hope for the best.
I hoped I would ace that political science test in college. I hoped I would blow everyone away my first day on the job. I hoped my child would be the nicest, most well-adjusted student in kindergarten this year.
We can all hope, but what did I expect to get on that test based on how long I studied?
What did I expect co-workers would say about me based on my appearance, demeanor and level of experience before my first day on the job?
What did I expect that first day of school based on my child's ability to meet other children and mind his manners?
Similarly, we hope Iowa wins every football game this fall, but what do we expect based on last year's success, returning players, schedule, etc..?
I think hopes and expectations are used interchangeably too often... because what I hope for doesn't necessarily match what I expect.
So what I plan to do with this post is address what I expect from this team.
By now, it's well established who the Hawks have returning (starting QB who's 18-4 in his career, elite defense, a talented receiving corps and a veteran special teams) and what the schedule has in store... in that they could be a favorite in every game. I'm going to address some other things below while referencing what's already known.
Some of you may agree with me. Others may not. At the very least, I want to give you more food for thought as we embark on what is believed to be the most anticipated Iowa football season in 25 years.
I'm going to lay out a case through a series of categories with my conclusion following each, beginning with:
#1: 8-year run
We'll examine one of the best runs in school history by record, draft picks, competitiveness and compare those things to a comparable 8-year run in school history.
Record & Draft picks
Here's a look at the cumulative Big 10 standings since 2002. Next to the record is the number of NFL draft picks each school has had in that time.
1. Ohio State 54-10 (53)
2. Iowa 42-22 (33)
3. Michigan 41-23 (34)
4. Wisconsin 37-27 (30)
4. Penn State 37-27 (34)
6. Purdue 31-33 (24)
7. Northwestern 30-34 (10)
8. MSU 27-37 (18)
9. Minnesota 24-40 (11)
10. Illinois 17-47 (17)
11. Indiana 12-52 (9)
Iowa had the second best record and third most draft picks in a league that has produced one BCS champ and two runners-up over that span.
Iowa also went to two BCS bowls over that eight-year period.
Among the schools with multiple BCS bids since 2002 --- see how Iowa stacks up when it comes to draft picks:
USC 58
Ohio St. 53
LSU 45
Georgia 44
Miami 44
Oklahoma 43
Florida 42
Florida St. 40
Texas 39
Virginia Tech 36
Michigan 34
Penn St. 34
Iowa 33
Notre Dame 33
Alabama 32
Utah 22
Cincinnati 19
West Virginia 14
Boise St. 9
Would you have guessed that Florida averaged only one more draft pick than Iowa in the past eight years? Or that Texas would have a total of six more picks than the Hawks?
Competitiveness
Success can also be measured by how consistent a team measures up against its opponents. Some may claim Iowa's style of play (which I'll address later) lends itself to competitive games, but before we get into that --- let's lay out the facts:
In games decided by more than 21 points over the past eight years, Iowa was 25-3.
The last time Iowa was out of a game on its final possession was the final contest of the 2007 season, a 28-19 home loss to Western Michigan.
In the next 26 games, Iowa is 20-6. In those six losses, they had a chance to win or tie the game on their final possession.
The last time Iowa was overmatched in a game was a 31-6 loss at Purdue in the '07 season, a span of 30 games.
The only other school that can say that --- on the list of multiple BCS qualifiers above ---- is Boise State.
****Let's compare these things to a comparable 8-year run in the 1980's.***
Record & Draft picks
Here's a look at the cumulative Big 10 standings from 1981-'88. Next to the record is the number of NFL draft picks each school had in that time.
1. Michigan 52-14-2 (32)
2. Iowa 46-16-4 (31)
3. Ohio St. 44-21-1 (38)
4. Illinois 42-23-3 (37)
5. MSU 35-30-3 (31)
6. Wisconsin 27-40-1 (36)
7. Purdue 26-41-1 (21)
8. Indiana 24-44 (15)
9. MN 20-46-2 (22)
10. NW 13-54-1 (13)
Iowa had the second best record, but had the fifth most draft picks in the league in that time period.
Iowa also went to two Rose Bowls, the equivalent of the Hawkeyes' two BCS bids in their recent run of success.
Competitiveness
In games decided by more than 21 points, Iowa was 31-5.
The Hawkeyes blew out an opponent -- on average -- about one more time a year than did the Iowa program in its most recent run.
Conclusion
These recent Iowa teams compare favorably to the successful squads of the 1980's. I don't think it's a major stretch to say Iowa is now a top-15 program based on its current run (when considering record, BCS appearances, draft picks)... So when you take that into account, the fact that Iowa is coming off an 11-2 record with a lot of talent returning and a favorable schedule... is it unfair to expect 10 or 11 wins again?
Take another look at that list of schools that received multiple BCS bids since '02. Pick a name on that list and become a fan of that school for a moment. Once you do, imagine having the most talented squad you've had in years coming back for 2010. Would you be satisfied --- as that one Hawkeye fan indicated --- with a 9-4 record?
#2: Injuries
Injuries are never good, in any sport... so if Iowa is dealt a rash of injuries at key positions, there will be a deep impact, as I would expect there to be at any major program.
Be that as it may, I continue to hear this comment from fans when they preach caution for the 2010 season: "The margin for error is razor thin here at Iowa."
One credible way to measure depth is how programs stack up in the draft over a lengthy period of time. It shows how programs have productive talent consistently coming up through the ranks.
Compared to the cream of the crop in college football --- in other words -- the programs that have produced the most NFL talent in recent years (USC, Ohio State and LSU) -- that argument of a razor thin margin of error is somewhat merited. But that's if you measure Iowa vs. the top three or four schools. If you look at the other programs Iowa compares favorably to in recent years in the draft (Virginia Tech, Michigan, Penn St, Notre Dame) -- that argument loses steam. If it's razor thin here --- it is almost everywhere.
Conclusion
This is not the Iowa basketball program of recent memory we're talking about here. The margin for error is greater than the perception. How else would you explain a redshirt freshman almost winning the Big 10 title at Ohio State in his first collegiate start?
#3: 2006
The following comment was recently posted on HN as a response to someone who said they expected 10 or 11 wins this year: "We kind of saw this mentality after our three-year Top 10 run. I think it's a shame if that mentality is returning."
My guess is that person was referring to 2006 --- and Drew Tate's senior year.
Iowa was coming off back-to-back January bowl appearances, started 4-0 and was ranked 13th before being humbled by #1 Ohio State at home in front of a national TV audience. The Hawkeyes would lose six of their last eight games, including a home game to Northwestern in which Coach Ferentz called his team "fat cats."
That was perhaps the most disappointing football season since the '97 year when Tim Dwight and Tavian Banks were seniors.
No one wants a duplication of '97 or '06 in 2010... which could explain the aforementioned "mentality" comment. The perception is --- if you expect a lot, the fall is much greater when those expectations aren’t met.
Conclusion
Iowa fans are skittish because of 2006. They don't want to raise the expectations too much for fear of a major letdown as was the case in '06. In my opinion, they also don't want to rock the boat by putting too much pressure on Kirk Ferentz. Iowa fans want to make him feel comfortable. If he feels the heat from the media/fanbase -- the fear is he could bolt for the NFL and leave the program in disarray. I think that's a major reason for a comment like this: "We'll take 9-3 every year." Hawk fans remember the 1970s well. Football was bad. Very bad. They also remember what happened when Lute Olson took Iowa to the Final Four. Expectations rose... and he soon left. They want to make Kirk happy. I can see their point... but it becomes increasingly hard to temper expectations when you begin to be recognized on a national level... which is what's happening now.
#4:Bowl games
One comment I've heard a number of times in recent months is the following: "I'd take 9-3 and a January bowl game every year."
Two ways to address that:
1) This year is not like every other year. Iowa is coming off an 11-2 record with a slew of starters back and a favorable schedule.
2) January bowl games are not the same measuring stick they once were.
This was the schedule of January bowl games in 1986:
Rose -- UCLA/Iowa
Cotton -- A&M/Auburn
Fiesta -- Michigan/Nebraska
Orange -- Oklahoma/Penn St.
Sugar -- Tennessee/Miami
That's five games on New Year's Day or later.
In 2011, that number is 13, including a game that could feature the team that finishes 7th in the Big 10. Not exactly elite. I don't think the majority of Iowa's fanbase will be thrilled if the Hawkeyes end up in the Dallas Football Classic vs. a team from Conference USA... but that would be considered a January bowl game.
The "January bowl game accomplishment" is a marketing tool coaches use in recruiting --- "We've been to x number of January bowl games in the past x years."
Today, the BCS should be the measuring stick. That carries the prestige the "January bowl game appearance" did 20 years ago... and in Iowa's 8-year run of success in the 1980's -- the program made two New Year's Day appearances, just as the program has made two BCS appearances in its most recent 8-year run.
Conclusion
I'm not saying the expectation should be a BCS bowl game every year, but I think fans should re-evaluate how watered-down the system has become before they use the January bowl game as a starting point. No one wants Iowa to end up in the Dallas Football Classic on January 1st this year... with the exception of the Dallas Chamber of Commerce that is.
#5: Record vs. bottom dwellers
In their most recent 8-year run, the Hawkeyes were 20-12 vs. the top five in the conference (Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State & Purdue).
They were 22-10 vs. the bottom five (Northwestern, MSU, Minnesota, Illinois & Indiana).
Not much of a difference there.
In the 8-year run of the 80's, the Hawkeyes were 13-12-3 vs. the top tier of the conference.
They were 33-4-1 vs. the bottom five.
Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has been better against the league's best than Hayden Fry was, but worse against the doormats.
You may wonder --- is the league more competitive these days? Perhaps it was more top-heavy back in the 80's?
Consider this:
The collective wins among the five worst teams from '81-'88 was 110.
The collective wins among the five worst teams from '02-'09 was 110.
Other statistics:
Indiana has 12 conference wins in the past eight years. They have not beaten Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State in that time, but have beaten the Hawks twice.
Northwestern is 4-2 against Iowa in the past eight years. Iowa has had more than three times the number of draft picks (33) than the Wildcats (10) in that time frame.
Those four losses vs. Northwestern equal what Iowa has had vs. Wisconsin, Penn State and Minnesota combined in the last eight years.
Conclusion
Why is it that Iowa has dominated some of the better teams, but struggled vs. lesser competition? One Hawkeye fan suggested to me that it has to do with conservative play calling --- that Iowa tends to take the air out of the ball when it gets a lead instead of going for the kill which can level the playing field.
If that's true, is that the only reason? I don't have an answer, but feel like these numbers are worth a deeper look by the media and fanbase.
I heard an ESPN radio host say recently that Iowa may have had the most exciting season of anyone in college football last year. That got me thinking: Was that exactly a compliment?
Let me explain.
The memorable 2009 season featured the following: two blocked FGs in the final seconds vs. UNI, the second-half dominance at Penn State, holding on vs. Arkansas State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks, scoring a TD on the final play vs. MSU, rallying from 14 down to beat Indiana, losing in OT vs. the Buckeyes... What a rush!
Obviously, what matters most is the "W" but it is noteworthy that three nail biting wins at home came against programs (Arkansas St., Michigan & Indiana) that were a combined 13-23. And when you factor in the heart-stopper at home against the D-1 Championship Subdivision Panthers, you begin to see what that radio host could have meant by that comment. The Hawkeyes had a thrilling season, but a large chunk of it was the by-product of them playing down to their competition. And don't tell me there isn't much that separates Iowa from most of those programs in talent. That's no longer true.
Other than winning it all, I believe this is the biggest obstacle standing in the way of the Iowa program taking the next leap... becoming a program in which --- through the eyes of the nation --- excellence is the expectation, much like it is at the other dominant BCS programs. Beat the teams they should on a more consistent basis --- while at the same time dispatching of the ones they do beat in a more convincing fashion.
Ultimately, I believe there is more separation between Iowa and schools like Indiana and Northwestern than others think... and the Hawkeyes are closer to Texas & Florida in talent than they're given credit for.
So..... with all of that said:
****I agree with those who expect 10 to 11 wins in 2010 based on Iowa's talent and schedule. That's what the lion's share of programs on that BCS list above would expect considering everything I've already addressed (talent, schedule, etc..)
At the same time...
****Based on past performance against the bottom dwellers, it would appear that 10 or 11 wins is too much to expect. Iowa hasn’t beaten Indiana AND Northwestern in the same year since 2002.
I do think it's time for Iowa to rise above that. I can definitely see Ohio State beating the Hawks, perhaps even Penn St. or Michigan.
But if Iowa fails to reach double-digit wins (or perhaps an unblemished regular season) because of losses to either Indiana or Northwestern, we'll always wonder: What if? How close could Iowa have come to the penthouse of college football had it been able to beat teams it should have? Were the Wildcats and Hoosiers what stood in the way of greatness? Of history?
At the end of the day, I think it's OK to raise those expectations: Expect greatness from a program that has as much going for it as Iowa does entering 2010. There is nothing wrong with that. 2011 will be a different year. Let's get wrapped up in the possibilities of 2010. If we can't expect greatness this year, when can we?
I'll close with one more thought:
For those who want to temper expectations in fear of a letdown, I'll refer you to the 2008 year. There were a lot of unknowns heading into that season. Expectations weren't great --- and they were extremely low after Iowa lost at Michigan State to fall to 3-3 overall. But then the Hawks ripped off six of their last seven and were playing (arguably) the best football in the Big 10 when the season ended.
The team finished 4th, but had the conference MVP in Shonn Greene. By my count, the only other MVP to come from a team outside the top three in the past 15 years was Indiana's Antwaan Randle El.
So while a good chunk of the fanbase was thrilled with the season because of how Iowa finished, there were others --- who were celebrating the wins --- but left wondering, "How good were they?" Did anyone really know? They were very talented, but were they better than a 4th place team?
I don't want there to be any doubt this year. I think everyone believes this team is capable of 10 or 11 wins again, perhaps even more... but many are reserved in their expectations for one reason or another as I tried to address above.
I'm here to tell you those reservations are no golden parachute if the Black & Gold finish 8-5. That doesn't stop the "What ifs" as 2008 showed.
Go Hawks! Let's think big.
The answers varied from 13-0 to, "I would be satisfied with a 9-4 record."
Obviously, everyone would "take" an undefeated season, but if we're to believe the original post was asking for a threshold of satisfaction for this year --- the comment about being satisfied with a 9-4 record really got me thinking.
I've also had a number of conversations in recent weeks with fellow Hawkeyes fans about what record we should "expect" out of this team based on what we know right now.
The answers varied almost as much as that original thread.
These examples are enough proof to me that the Hawkeye fanbase is clearly divided in what it expects out of the 2010 season... and before I go any further, I want to throw one word out there, address it and then remove it from the rest of the conversation.
That word is "hope."
We all hope for the best.
I hoped I would ace that political science test in college. I hoped I would blow everyone away my first day on the job. I hoped my child would be the nicest, most well-adjusted student in kindergarten this year.
We can all hope, but what did I expect to get on that test based on how long I studied?
What did I expect co-workers would say about me based on my appearance, demeanor and level of experience before my first day on the job?
What did I expect that first day of school based on my child's ability to meet other children and mind his manners?
Similarly, we hope Iowa wins every football game this fall, but what do we expect based on last year's success, returning players, schedule, etc..?
I think hopes and expectations are used interchangeably too often... because what I hope for doesn't necessarily match what I expect.
So what I plan to do with this post is address what I expect from this team.
By now, it's well established who the Hawks have returning (starting QB who's 18-4 in his career, elite defense, a talented receiving corps and a veteran special teams) and what the schedule has in store... in that they could be a favorite in every game. I'm going to address some other things below while referencing what's already known.
Some of you may agree with me. Others may not. At the very least, I want to give you more food for thought as we embark on what is believed to be the most anticipated Iowa football season in 25 years.
I'm going to lay out a case through a series of categories with my conclusion following each, beginning with:
#1: 8-year run
We'll examine one of the best runs in school history by record, draft picks, competitiveness and compare those things to a comparable 8-year run in school history.
Record & Draft picks
Here's a look at the cumulative Big 10 standings since 2002. Next to the record is the number of NFL draft picks each school has had in that time.
1. Ohio State 54-10 (53)
2. Iowa 42-22 (33)
3. Michigan 41-23 (34)
4. Wisconsin 37-27 (30)
4. Penn State 37-27 (34)
6. Purdue 31-33 (24)
7. Northwestern 30-34 (10)
8. MSU 27-37 (18)
9. Minnesota 24-40 (11)
10. Illinois 17-47 (17)
11. Indiana 12-52 (9)
Iowa had the second best record and third most draft picks in a league that has produced one BCS champ and two runners-up over that span.
Iowa also went to two BCS bowls over that eight-year period.
Among the schools with multiple BCS bids since 2002 --- see how Iowa stacks up when it comes to draft picks:
USC 58
Ohio St. 53
LSU 45
Georgia 44
Miami 44
Oklahoma 43
Florida 42
Florida St. 40
Texas 39
Virginia Tech 36
Michigan 34
Penn St. 34
Iowa 33
Notre Dame 33
Alabama 32
Utah 22
Cincinnati 19
West Virginia 14
Boise St. 9
Would you have guessed that Florida averaged only one more draft pick than Iowa in the past eight years? Or that Texas would have a total of six more picks than the Hawks?
Competitiveness
Success can also be measured by how consistent a team measures up against its opponents. Some may claim Iowa's style of play (which I'll address later) lends itself to competitive games, but before we get into that --- let's lay out the facts:
In games decided by more than 21 points over the past eight years, Iowa was 25-3.
The last time Iowa was out of a game on its final possession was the final contest of the 2007 season, a 28-19 home loss to Western Michigan.
In the next 26 games, Iowa is 20-6. In those six losses, they had a chance to win or tie the game on their final possession.
The last time Iowa was overmatched in a game was a 31-6 loss at Purdue in the '07 season, a span of 30 games.
The only other school that can say that --- on the list of multiple BCS qualifiers above ---- is Boise State.
****Let's compare these things to a comparable 8-year run in the 1980's.***
Record & Draft picks
Here's a look at the cumulative Big 10 standings from 1981-'88. Next to the record is the number of NFL draft picks each school had in that time.
1. Michigan 52-14-2 (32)
2. Iowa 46-16-4 (31)
3. Ohio St. 44-21-1 (38)
4. Illinois 42-23-3 (37)
5. MSU 35-30-3 (31)
6. Wisconsin 27-40-1 (36)
7. Purdue 26-41-1 (21)
8. Indiana 24-44 (15)
9. MN 20-46-2 (22)
10. NW 13-54-1 (13)
Iowa had the second best record, but had the fifth most draft picks in the league in that time period.
Iowa also went to two Rose Bowls, the equivalent of the Hawkeyes' two BCS bids in their recent run of success.
Competitiveness
In games decided by more than 21 points, Iowa was 31-5.
The Hawkeyes blew out an opponent -- on average -- about one more time a year than did the Iowa program in its most recent run.
Conclusion
These recent Iowa teams compare favorably to the successful squads of the 1980's. I don't think it's a major stretch to say Iowa is now a top-15 program based on its current run (when considering record, BCS appearances, draft picks)... So when you take that into account, the fact that Iowa is coming off an 11-2 record with a lot of talent returning and a favorable schedule... is it unfair to expect 10 or 11 wins again?
Take another look at that list of schools that received multiple BCS bids since '02. Pick a name on that list and become a fan of that school for a moment. Once you do, imagine having the most talented squad you've had in years coming back for 2010. Would you be satisfied --- as that one Hawkeye fan indicated --- with a 9-4 record?
#2: Injuries
Injuries are never good, in any sport... so if Iowa is dealt a rash of injuries at key positions, there will be a deep impact, as I would expect there to be at any major program.
Be that as it may, I continue to hear this comment from fans when they preach caution for the 2010 season: "The margin for error is razor thin here at Iowa."
One credible way to measure depth is how programs stack up in the draft over a lengthy period of time. It shows how programs have productive talent consistently coming up through the ranks.
Compared to the cream of the crop in college football --- in other words -- the programs that have produced the most NFL talent in recent years (USC, Ohio State and LSU) -- that argument of a razor thin margin of error is somewhat merited. But that's if you measure Iowa vs. the top three or four schools. If you look at the other programs Iowa compares favorably to in recent years in the draft (Virginia Tech, Michigan, Penn St, Notre Dame) -- that argument loses steam. If it's razor thin here --- it is almost everywhere.
Conclusion
This is not the Iowa basketball program of recent memory we're talking about here. The margin for error is greater than the perception. How else would you explain a redshirt freshman almost winning the Big 10 title at Ohio State in his first collegiate start?
#3: 2006
The following comment was recently posted on HN as a response to someone who said they expected 10 or 11 wins this year: "We kind of saw this mentality after our three-year Top 10 run. I think it's a shame if that mentality is returning."
My guess is that person was referring to 2006 --- and Drew Tate's senior year.
Iowa was coming off back-to-back January bowl appearances, started 4-0 and was ranked 13th before being humbled by #1 Ohio State at home in front of a national TV audience. The Hawkeyes would lose six of their last eight games, including a home game to Northwestern in which Coach Ferentz called his team "fat cats."
That was perhaps the most disappointing football season since the '97 year when Tim Dwight and Tavian Banks were seniors.
No one wants a duplication of '97 or '06 in 2010... which could explain the aforementioned "mentality" comment. The perception is --- if you expect a lot, the fall is much greater when those expectations aren’t met.
Conclusion
Iowa fans are skittish because of 2006. They don't want to raise the expectations too much for fear of a major letdown as was the case in '06. In my opinion, they also don't want to rock the boat by putting too much pressure on Kirk Ferentz. Iowa fans want to make him feel comfortable. If he feels the heat from the media/fanbase -- the fear is he could bolt for the NFL and leave the program in disarray. I think that's a major reason for a comment like this: "We'll take 9-3 every year." Hawk fans remember the 1970s well. Football was bad. Very bad. They also remember what happened when Lute Olson took Iowa to the Final Four. Expectations rose... and he soon left. They want to make Kirk happy. I can see their point... but it becomes increasingly hard to temper expectations when you begin to be recognized on a national level... which is what's happening now.
#4:Bowl games
One comment I've heard a number of times in recent months is the following: "I'd take 9-3 and a January bowl game every year."
Two ways to address that:
1) This year is not like every other year. Iowa is coming off an 11-2 record with a slew of starters back and a favorable schedule.
2) January bowl games are not the same measuring stick they once were.
This was the schedule of January bowl games in 1986:
Rose -- UCLA/Iowa
Cotton -- A&M/Auburn
Fiesta -- Michigan/Nebraska
Orange -- Oklahoma/Penn St.
Sugar -- Tennessee/Miami
That's five games on New Year's Day or later.
In 2011, that number is 13, including a game that could feature the team that finishes 7th in the Big 10. Not exactly elite. I don't think the majority of Iowa's fanbase will be thrilled if the Hawkeyes end up in the Dallas Football Classic vs. a team from Conference USA... but that would be considered a January bowl game.
The "January bowl game accomplishment" is a marketing tool coaches use in recruiting --- "We've been to x number of January bowl games in the past x years."
Today, the BCS should be the measuring stick. That carries the prestige the "January bowl game appearance" did 20 years ago... and in Iowa's 8-year run of success in the 1980's -- the program made two New Year's Day appearances, just as the program has made two BCS appearances in its most recent 8-year run.
Conclusion
I'm not saying the expectation should be a BCS bowl game every year, but I think fans should re-evaluate how watered-down the system has become before they use the January bowl game as a starting point. No one wants Iowa to end up in the Dallas Football Classic on January 1st this year... with the exception of the Dallas Chamber of Commerce that is.
#5: Record vs. bottom dwellers
In their most recent 8-year run, the Hawkeyes were 20-12 vs. the top five in the conference (Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Penn State & Purdue).
They were 22-10 vs. the bottom five (Northwestern, MSU, Minnesota, Illinois & Indiana).
Not much of a difference there.
In the 8-year run of the 80's, the Hawkeyes were 13-12-3 vs. the top tier of the conference.
They were 33-4-1 vs. the bottom five.
Under Kirk Ferentz, Iowa has been better against the league's best than Hayden Fry was, but worse against the doormats.
You may wonder --- is the league more competitive these days? Perhaps it was more top-heavy back in the 80's?
Consider this:
The collective wins among the five worst teams from '81-'88 was 110.
The collective wins among the five worst teams from '02-'09 was 110.
Other statistics:
Indiana has 12 conference wins in the past eight years. They have not beaten Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State in that time, but have beaten the Hawks twice.
Northwestern is 4-2 against Iowa in the past eight years. Iowa has had more than three times the number of draft picks (33) than the Wildcats (10) in that time frame.
Those four losses vs. Northwestern equal what Iowa has had vs. Wisconsin, Penn State and Minnesota combined in the last eight years.
Conclusion
Why is it that Iowa has dominated some of the better teams, but struggled vs. lesser competition? One Hawkeye fan suggested to me that it has to do with conservative play calling --- that Iowa tends to take the air out of the ball when it gets a lead instead of going for the kill which can level the playing field.
If that's true, is that the only reason? I don't have an answer, but feel like these numbers are worth a deeper look by the media and fanbase.
I heard an ESPN radio host say recently that Iowa may have had the most exciting season of anyone in college football last year. That got me thinking: Was that exactly a compliment?
Let me explain.
The memorable 2009 season featured the following: two blocked FGs in the final seconds vs. UNI, the second-half dominance at Penn State, holding on vs. Arkansas State and Michigan in back-to-back weeks, scoring a TD on the final play vs. MSU, rallying from 14 down to beat Indiana, losing in OT vs. the Buckeyes... What a rush!
Obviously, what matters most is the "W" but it is noteworthy that three nail biting wins at home came against programs (Arkansas St., Michigan & Indiana) that were a combined 13-23. And when you factor in the heart-stopper at home against the D-1 Championship Subdivision Panthers, you begin to see what that radio host could have meant by that comment. The Hawkeyes had a thrilling season, but a large chunk of it was the by-product of them playing down to their competition. And don't tell me there isn't much that separates Iowa from most of those programs in talent. That's no longer true.
Other than winning it all, I believe this is the biggest obstacle standing in the way of the Iowa program taking the next leap... becoming a program in which --- through the eyes of the nation --- excellence is the expectation, much like it is at the other dominant BCS programs. Beat the teams they should on a more consistent basis --- while at the same time dispatching of the ones they do beat in a more convincing fashion.
Ultimately, I believe there is more separation between Iowa and schools like Indiana and Northwestern than others think... and the Hawkeyes are closer to Texas & Florida in talent than they're given credit for.
So..... with all of that said:
****I agree with those who expect 10 to 11 wins in 2010 based on Iowa's talent and schedule. That's what the lion's share of programs on that BCS list above would expect considering everything I've already addressed (talent, schedule, etc..)
At the same time...
****Based on past performance against the bottom dwellers, it would appear that 10 or 11 wins is too much to expect. Iowa hasn’t beaten Indiana AND Northwestern in the same year since 2002.
I do think it's time for Iowa to rise above that. I can definitely see Ohio State beating the Hawks, perhaps even Penn St. or Michigan.
But if Iowa fails to reach double-digit wins (or perhaps an unblemished regular season) because of losses to either Indiana or Northwestern, we'll always wonder: What if? How close could Iowa have come to the penthouse of college football had it been able to beat teams it should have? Were the Wildcats and Hoosiers what stood in the way of greatness? Of history?
At the end of the day, I think it's OK to raise those expectations: Expect greatness from a program that has as much going for it as Iowa does entering 2010. There is nothing wrong with that. 2011 will be a different year. Let's get wrapped up in the possibilities of 2010. If we can't expect greatness this year, when can we?
I'll close with one more thought:
For those who want to temper expectations in fear of a letdown, I'll refer you to the 2008 year. There were a lot of unknowns heading into that season. Expectations weren't great --- and they were extremely low after Iowa lost at Michigan State to fall to 3-3 overall. But then the Hawks ripped off six of their last seven and were playing (arguably) the best football in the Big 10 when the season ended.
The team finished 4th, but had the conference MVP in Shonn Greene. By my count, the only other MVP to come from a team outside the top three in the past 15 years was Indiana's Antwaan Randle El.
So while a good chunk of the fanbase was thrilled with the season because of how Iowa finished, there were others --- who were celebrating the wins --- but left wondering, "How good were they?" Did anyone really know? They were very talented, but were they better than a 4th place team?
I don't want there to be any doubt this year. I think everyone believes this team is capable of 10 or 11 wins again, perhaps even more... but many are reserved in their expectations for one reason or another as I tried to address above.
I'm here to tell you those reservations are no golden parachute if the Black & Gold finish 8-5. That doesn't stop the "What ifs" as 2008 showed.
Go Hawks! Let's think big.
