12/2 Iowa Bowl Projection

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Iowa will learn its bowl destination on Sunday evening. We'll have an even better idea of where Iowa will go bowling late Saturday night after the final regular season games have been played.

Here are some games to keep an eye on that could have an impact on Iowa's bowl situation...

SEC Title Game: If LSU beats Georgia, the Bulldogs will likely drop below Michigan in the BCS. Michigan is currently 16th and teams must be in the Top 14 for BCS at large selection.

Iowa State at Kansas State: The Wildcats are currently 11th and if they lost to Iowa State, they'd drop below Michigan.

Big Ten Title Game: Michigan State (13) and Wisconsin (15) are both ahead of Michigan, but somebody has to lose and they'll fall below the Wolverines.

Texas-Baylor: Baylor is sitting at 17 and as Mike Hlas points out , a big win over Texas could sway some voters.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: The outcome of this game will have an impact on which team Iowa may face in its bowl game.

Conference USA Title Game: Houston vs Southern Miss. If Houston wins, they are in the BCS. If Southern Miss wins then we may not see a BCS buster in this year's BCS field.

I think LSU will beat Georgia. With one of the Big Ten teams losing, I believe that will be enough to get Michigan into the Top 14, so I am still picking there to be a 'Two Up' scenario in the Big Ten, meaning two teams to the BCS.

ROSE: Wisconsin
BCS: Michigan
CAP ONE: Nebraska
OUTBACK: Michigan State

INSIGHT: This week, the tea leaves are pointing to the Insight Bowl bringing Iowa back for a second straight season. If Michigan gets into the Top 14 of the BCS, that is. If that happens, then it seems more than a 50/50 bet that Iowa goes back to Tempe. Who they will play is what is up for debate. Let's assume Oklahoma State's passing offense shreds Oklahoma the way Texas Tech and Baylor's passing offenses shredded the Sooner defense. Let's also assume that Kansas State beats Iowa State, Baylor beats Texas and that Houston beats Southern Miss. All of those 'bets' are on the favorites, by the way.

Here is the Big 12 bowl picking order and the teams I believe will be in the corresponding bowl:

BCS - Tostitos Fiesta (Oklahoma State)
AT&T Cotton (Kansas State)
Valero Alamo (Oklahoma)

This brings us to the Insight's Big 12 pick. If Baylor beats Texas, the Bears are 8-4 and the Longhorns 7-5. The Bears have an electrifying Heisman candidate in Robert Griffin III, which is a decent TV draw for them. But they are a small private school and Texas would send more fans to the Insight Bowl than would Baylor and I still believe the TV draw from Texas would eclipse that of Baylor. Texas, not Baylor, has their own television network and that only happens because a lot of people want to watch your games...err, a lot of people live in Texas and are Longhorn fans.

I'll go with Iowa vs Texas in the Insight Bowl as long as the Big Ten gets two to the BCS.

If things play out where Michigan gets left out of the BCS mix, here is the direction I'll go:

ROSE: Wisconsin
CAP ONE: Michigan
OUTBACK: Nebraska
INSIGHT: Michigan State
GATOR: Ohio State
TEXAS: Iowa, likely against Texas A&M

Check back in late Saturday night for the final projection
 
Iowa vs Texas is by far the best scenario for the hawks. A win in this matchup would at least ease some of the disappointment of back to back 7-5 seasons.
 
I want iowa to win their bowl game. I say drop them lower and play a lesser team. Iowa has proven they can't win against the better teams. Scratching my head on how they beat michigan. I don't want them going to a higher bowl just for the sake of saying they got in a better bowl, just to get beat. The guy who prints my Iowa bowl shirts for me to sell, sent me a proof that shows the in care care bowl. Do the printers know already? Perhaps.
 
JonDMiller said:
Iowa will learn its bowl destination on Sunday evening. We'll have an even better idea of where Iowa will go bowling late Saturday night after the final regular season games have been played.

Here are some games to keep an eye on that could have an impact on Iowa's bowl situation...

SEC Title Game: If LSU beats Georgia, the Bulldogs will likely drop below Michigan in the BCS. Michigan is currently 16th and teams must be in the Top 14 for BCS at large selection.

Iowa State at Kansas State: The Wildcats are currently 11th and if they lost to Iowa State, they'd drop below Michigan.

Big Ten Title Game: Michigan State (13) and Wisconsin (15) are both ahead of Michigan, but somebody has to lose and they'll fall below the Wolverines.

Texas-Baylor: Baylor is sitting at 17 and as Mike Hlas points out , a big win over Texas could sway some voters.

Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: The outcome of this game will have an impact on which team Iowa may face in its bowl game.

Conference USA Title Game: Houston vs Southern Miss. If Houston wins, they are in the BCS. If Southern Miss wins then we may not see a BCS buster in this year's BCS field.

I think LSU will beat Georgia. With one of the Big Ten teams losing, I believe that will be enough to get Michigan into the Top 14, so I am still picking there to be a 'Two Up' scenario in the Big Ten, meaning two teams to the BCS.

ROSE: Wisconsin
BCS: Michigan
CAP ONE: Nebraska
OUTBACK: Michigan State

INSIGHT: This week, the tea leaves are pointing to the Insight Bowl bringing Iowa back for a second straight season. If Michigan gets into the Top 14 of the BCS, that is. If that happens, then it seems more than a 50/50 bet that Iowa goes back to Tempe. Who they will play is what is up for debate. Let's assume Oklahoma State's passing offense shreds Oklahoma the way Texas Tech and Baylor's passing offenses shredded the Sooner defense. Let's also assume that Kansas State beats Iowa State, Baylor beats Texas and that Houston beats Southern Miss. All of those 'bets' are on the favorites, by the way.

Here is the Big 12 bowl picking order and the teams I believe will be in the corresponding bowl:

BCS - Tostitos Fiesta (Oklahoma State)
AT&T Cotton (Kansas State)
Valero Alamo (Oklahoma)

This brings us to the Insight's Big 12 pick. If Baylor beats Texas, the Bears are 8-4 and the Longhorns 7-5. The Bears have an electrifying Heisman candidate in Robert Griffin III, which is a decent TV draw for them. But they are a small private school and Texas would send more fans to the Insight Bowl than would Baylor and I still believe the TV draw from Texas would eclipse that of Baylor. Texas, not Baylor, has their own television network and that only happens because a lot of people want to watch your games...err, a lot of people live in Texas and are Longhorn fans.

I'll go with Iowa vs Texas in the Insight Bowl as long as the Big Ten gets two to the BCS.

If things play out where Michigan gets left out of the BCS mix, here is the direction I'll go:

ROSE: Wisconsin
CAP ONE: Michigan
OUTBACK: Nebraska
INSIGHT: Michigan State
GATOR: Ohio State
TEXAS: Iowa, likely against Texas A&M

Check back in late Saturday night for the final projection
Click to expand...

No way the Cotton Bowl passes on Oklahoma or OK State. K State will play in the Alamo Bowl.

If Baylor wins this weekend then they will play in the Insight. If Baylor loses this weekend then they will play in the Holiday. Texas will play in the Insight or Holiday as well.

Missouri and A&M are done for the year. I would have thought A&M had a shot at the Meineke bowl but now that they've fired Sherman, Missouri will play there.

New Era Pinstripe. This is a tricky one and its based solely on where Iowa falls. If we fall to the Texas bowl then there will likely be a side deal that sends Iowa State to this bowl and A&M will be our opponent in Texas. If we go to the Gator then A&M heads to the New Era and Iowa State to the Texas.
 
Could the Insight pick Ohio State? OSU vs Texas? The Insight is doing everything they can to be perceived to be what they in fact are, not the Insight.com of the past and an "up and coming" bowl. Then we would have a chance at the Gator?
 
A rematch with Texas, this time in the Insight Bowl, would be outstanding. Three fans from the Tweeter household would be in attendance.
 
I believe Fozey Whittaker is out for the year. He is their best offensive player. Give KOK a month he could probably come up with a decent game plan. I will take this match up.
 
hawkeye12345 said:
No way the Cotton Bowl passes on Oklahoma or OK State. K State will play in the Alamo Bowl.

If Baylor wins this weekend then they will play in the Insight. If Baylor loses this weekend then they will play in the Holiday. Texas will play in the Insight or Holiday as well.

Missouri and A&M are done for the year. I would have thought A&M had a shot at the Meineke bowl but now that they've fired Sherman, Missouri will play there.

New Era Pinstripe. This is a tricky one and its based solely on where Iowa falls. If we fall to the Texas bowl then there will likely be a side deal that sends Iowa State to this bowl and A&M will be our opponent in Texas. If we go to the Gator then A&M heads to the New Era and Iowa State to the Texas.
Click to expand...

^ great post.

Jons predictions looked good until he had Kansas State being selected before Oklahoma.
 
I wonder if the Big 12 will get two in - if Oklahoma beats Okie St. I doubt Okie St. would drop down past 14, and even if Okie St. wins, if it's close then would Oklahoma drop more than 4?
 
If Okie State loses there will not be any BCS Bowl for them.

But 1 scenario no one is paying any attention to is if Geogia beats LSU. If this happens many project LSU to still be in the NC game against Alabama. Georgia would get into the Sugar Bowl as SEC Champions and the SEC would get 3 bids.
 
ssckelley said:
If Okie State loses there will not be any BCS Bowl for them.

But 1 scenario no one is paying any attention to is if Geogia beats LSU. If this happens many project LSU to still be in the NC game against Alabama. Georgia would get into the Sugar Bowl as SEC Champions and the SEC would get 3 bids.
Click to expand...


I don't think one conference can get 3 bids no matter what. Am I missing something? There is no way that happens. One of LSU/BAMA is going to be looking from the outside in. Unless both are in the top 4, but I think LSU would drop out if they got beat by #14 Georgia
 
Those are terrible. Nebraska wouldn't jump michigan state because they lost in the championship? You can't say cause nebraska beat them because that would mean michigan state would jump wisconsin because they beat them once.
 
Texas is the 600lb gorilla and if it comes down to Baylor vs Texas...Horns in a NY minute. Insight picks before the Gator,so will they go with OSU over Iowa?
I am now fully onboard for an Insight Texas vs Iowa matchups.
The more I thought about it,it has everything I want.
1. Great Iowa following,between transplants and Iowa folks flush with corn money,and Arizona being the sure thing on warm weather vs Fl.
2. Great opponent....hey,its Texas.
3. Beatable opponent...this is the jackpot...a great name school who is beatable?yes.
4. Recruiting bonuses....texas,anyone? We still go there.
5. Time slot- only game on at that hour on that day,which happens to be a holiday friday nite...cannot pick better.
6. No conflict with other Big Ten bowl games....like on 1/2,plus on 1/2 we will be heading back to work the next day,so the drinking is impaired.
7. It will **** off the clone fans.

Perfect....git r dun.
 
I see picking K-State ahead of Oklahoma for Cotton.

The bowl is in Dallas, and selling hotel rooms is a big deal for Bowl Games - they are all partners in the local Chamber of Commerce.

The local impact of 40,000 Oklahoma fans getting in their car, going to a game and leaving is not nearly what 35,000 K- State fans getting in their car (or flying) staying overnight or two nights, eating out etc...

This matters. A lot.
 
If Iowa ends up playing Baylor, they might just move RG3 ahead of Luck in the draft order. ;)

Absolutely the worst case scenario.
 
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