HawkInATX
Well-Known Member
We don't even need ND to lose again. They won't have a conference championship and will be 11-1 if they beat stanford, going against a 12-1 Iowa with a conference championship (who is already out of the picture)
12-1 Iowa, a lock for the playoff?
- Thread starter Chips28
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We don't even need ND to lose again. They won't have a conference championship and will be 11-1 if they beat stanford, going against a 12-1 Iowa with a conference championship (who is already out of the picture)
A
alexzelada
Guest
You are truly blind if you think an undefeated Iowa is left out.
A team as prestigious as ND against a team as unprestigious as Iowa could be the one exception where Iowa gets left out. They showed a percentage the other day of what Iowa's chances are of being in the playoffs if they're undefeated and it was 91%. The other 9% is the likelihood of ND and a Big 12 school winning out and getting selected over Iowa. That's like having a bigger pocket pair than your opponent and getting all in after the flop. You know you're probably going to win but you're still nervous.
taffaej
Well-Known Member
nope completely out of the picture with one loss. There way to many other teams that have a bigger name and have earned that respect to be voted ahead of us.
Give me a scenario with teams and records where a one loss Iowa is left out. Right now the Pac 12 is out, they have no way of playing themselves in.
ACC - Clemson or UNC, Conf champs, only one team makes it
SEC - Bama 12-1 Conf champs
BIG 10 - Iowa 12-1 Conf Champs
Big 12 - OU or OSU 11-1 or 12-0 Conference champs
ND - 11-1
The only hurdle would be ND at 11-1, but Iowa has another win and a conference championship win over undefeated OSU. Iowa is not getting left out.
Look at our resume before the Minnesota game. The road wins we had, the number of Power 5 conference wins we had...if it were Alabama, or ND, or even a blue blood BIG team they would not only be in the top 4, but either number 1 or 2. But it's not those team with that resume, it's Iowa, and we were 5th. Purely based on the "eye test". So to think that we would get in with a loss is not rational unless a lot of other teams lose to bad teams.
nationalchamps
Well-Known Member
Here's another scenario for ya:
tOSU - 13-0
Iowa - 12-1 (loss to tOSU)
Alabama - 12-1
Okla St 11-1 (loss to Oklahoma)
Oklahoma 11-1 (loss to TX)
Clemson 12-1 (loss to NC)
Could Iowa still get in with a loss in the Big title game? Their lone loss would be to a likely top 2 tOSU. Alabama's would be to a 3 loss Ole Miss at home, Clemson would have lost to NC, Okie St would have a loss to Oklahoma or TCU....this scenario here would be chaos.
tOSU - 13-0
Iowa - 12-1 (loss to tOSU)
Alabama - 12-1
Okla St 11-1 (loss to Oklahoma)
Oklahoma 11-1 (loss to TX)
Clemson 12-1 (loss to NC)
Could Iowa still get in with a loss in the Big title game? Their lone loss would be to a likely top 2 tOSU. Alabama's would be to a 3 loss Ole Miss at home, Clemson would have lost to NC, Okie St would have a loss to Oklahoma or TCU....this scenario here would be chaos.
shonblatt
Well-Known Member
In this scenario, probably not. Teams that just lost it's conference championship game would almost certainly be out (Clemson, Iowa), UNLESS the alternative is a bunch of 2-loss teams. The committee prioritizes championships.
So based on your scenario, Ohio State and Alabama are locks. Oklahoma would probably be in for beating Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State in consecutive weeks. The 4th spot would be between Notre Dame (if they finish 11-1) and North Carolina, who would be 12-1 and on a 12 game winning streak.
I don't think there is a 2nd place conference team that would get in over a 1 loss iowa team who won the conference championship. So since the Pac 12 is out, that leaves 5 teams fighting for 4 spots. If ND loses or the BIG 12 champ has 1 or 2 loses, we would get in. It's a simple matter of there being no one else to put in over us. Houston maybe? I highly doubt it.
kicker22
Well-Known Member
While I see the logic in looking at the loses, I think in this scenario it would come down to who has the more impressive wins. As much as I hate the Big 12 and their backloading of their schedule I can't see Oklahoma not getting in with victories over OK St., Baylor and TCU (despite Baylor and TCU being overrated) I still think those wins would put them in.
The other side of that argument is that UNC could find themselves in the equation of competing for a spot. There's still a lot of season left and I think the polls and rankings will look much different in 3 weeks. I think tonight its going to look much different, not necessarily top 4, but I see a lot of teams moving into the picture.
HawkPrdatr40
Well-Known Member
If the 1-loss is from the loss in the Big Ten Championship game than the answer is no.
SmokeTownHawk
Well-Known Member
Haven't read the entire thread but for a one-loss Iowa team to make the top 4 they'd have to have a lights-out game in the B1G championship winning by a comfortable margin. And that's just to have an outside chance.
Bumping this as Iowa is now #4 and even Herbie knows who ever wins the big ten is getting into the playoff. JM needs to start getting on board with the idea that a 12-1 Iowa is more than likely in the playoff. I know those fans have nostalgia with the Rose bowl, but its not what it use to be and the playoff gets you so much more notoriety nowadays.
ND might get in over us but if they lose we would be in.
kicker22
Well-Known Member
Just my thoughts but I could see a ND win vs. Stanford bumping them up to #4 and moving us back to #5 or #6; interchangeable with MSU, next week. Then ether us or MSU (assuming it's MSU) jumping them for the #4 spot after the Conference Championship.
ND not having a Conference championship or a marquee win bigger then Iowa (with a win over MSU) or MSU (with wins over OSU and Iowa) will have them on the outside looking in.
ND not having a Conference championship or a marquee win bigger then Iowa (with a win over MSU) or MSU (with wins over OSU and Iowa) will have them on the outside looking in.
ChosenChildren
Well-Known Member
I think it comes down to the Big Ten championship game. A victory over Nebraska would be terrific, but not absolutely necessary.....
nationalchamps
Well-Known Member
Ken Silverstein said the same thing. Big Ten winner is getting in regardless of who it is and even if they have one loss.
What if it is a 2 loss Michigan team? They are not getting in - they would take a second 1 loss big-12 first
ColumbusHawk
Well-Known Member
Agree entirely. However, a win over a two loss Michigan might not get the Hawks into the playoff. A win over Sparty or the Bucks guarantees a spot.
ColumbusHawk
Well-Known Member
ESPN would love to have the Hawks or any B1G team in the playoff. When the B1G says jump, ESPN asks: How High?
The executives at ESPN aren't stupid. The B1G is probably their largest revenue maker.
