11/26/18 - KENPOM/SAGARIN BIG TEN COMPOSITE RANKINGS
- Thread starter JG10Hawk
- Start date
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
What, you telling me the B12 only has played 56 games. Most others are up in the 80-90 games. Is that right? What am I missing?
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
Yes, this is correct. Only having 10 teams in their conference lowers the number of total games played compared to others.
mopkins
King Kong
56 games divided by 10 big 12 teams = 5.6 games
80 games divided by 14 big 10 teams = 5.7 games
85 games divided by 15 ACC teams = 5.66 games
WindsorHawk
Well-Known Member
I look forward to our games with Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State and Nebraska...4 of the conference teams allegedly better than us according to these rankings.
mopkins
King Kong
Hopefully Cook can dominate Happ like he did last year.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
Oh yea. I feel like an idiot.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
It’s a Monday after a holiday weekend. I’ll give you a pass.
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
The Big 10 has 14 teams, the Big 12 has 10 teams, I mean it's easy to be confused.
Hey I was right there with you on that one.
MelroseHawkins
Well-Known Member
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
Haha no worries. I'm not going to lie, when I initially read your post I thought my spreadsheet got messed up. Then a few seconds later it clicked for me.
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
I don't know exactly how the NET works but Ohio State at #1 in the first poll makes little sense. Throw in Loyola Marymount at #10 and a bunch of small schools in the top 50 and I have concerns.
Upon digging into it briefly, it looks like the strength of the opponent isn't factored into the efficiency components used like it should be. The margin of victory element is also capped at 10 points. In other words a team that statistically posts efficient results against a directional school and a team that posts the same efficiency results vs a team like Duke would be given the same credit within the formula... That's a major flaw.
I ran some comparisons and noted the following number of variances of ranking differences greater than or equal to 50.
- Kenpom vs Sagarain = 21 teams with >= 50 ranking spots (Highest ranked team is SMU which is 85 in Kenpom and 158 in Sagarin).
- NET vs Sagarin = 83 teams with >= 50 ranking spots.
- NET vs Kenpom = 108 teams with >= 50 ranking spots.
The season is still young and the sample sizes for all metrics is still small. Given the large discrepancies above, I trust the two I'm tracking more at the moment. That said, I have added NET to my spreadsheet to track and may include it in future postings if it proves to improve over time.
GotTimDodge
Well-Known Member
Have Kenpom/Sagarin rankings ever meant anything. Ever?
JG10Hawk
Well-Known Member
Depends who you ask. They are both better than the RPI ever was in estimating how good teams actually are while also trying to limit the bias of AP and Coaches polls.
SteveGarvey1
Well-Known Member
Supposedly the selection committee looks at them.
eveningnewsteam
Well-Known Member
If they attempt to put Happ on Cook, Happ will be fouled out before halftime
GotTimDodge
Well-Known Member
Ah. Then yes, certainly.
NikeHawk21
Well-Known Member
https://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=3540&s=305972
Here is another computer model. I know nothing about it’s strengths or weaknesses. You most certainly do not need to add to your spreadsheet but this one is interesting to look at because they give projected scores.
For whatever it’s worth this model has Iowa at 31st in the country. They have Iowa as underdogs in 9 of their 10 B1G road games and 4 B1G home games so if their scores go scratch Iowa would be at 7-13 in B1G play.
Here is another computer model. I know nothing about it’s strengths or weaknesses. You most certainly do not need to add to your spreadsheet but this one is interesting to look at because they give projected scores.
For whatever it’s worth this model has Iowa at 31st in the country. They have Iowa as underdogs in 9 of their 10 B1G road games and 4 B1G home games so if their scores go scratch Iowa would be at 7-13 in B1G play.
thedukeofearl
Well-Known Member
Purdue looks very good, but I believe we can handle the Badgers and Nebraska. We owe Ohio State in a Large manner for the unsportsmanlike, despicable behavior at Carver last season. I don't believe the Lads have forgotten about that.....
