1 minute to go, 73% chance Iowa wins. They didn't

storminspank

storminspank

Justin VanLaere
Are you sick of seeing these yet?

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Some critical mistakes by Iowa in the last two minutes, starting with the coach and the players he selected to play at that point, continuing into some non-freshman leadership...
 




Yep, sick of seeing these. This team would have almost clinched a NCAA bid if they would have just won 1/2 of the close games they basically gave away. Indiana, MSU, @ Purdue, and @ Minnesota all should have been wins.

This is the pains of having a young team, the talent is there but the ability to finish is not.
 




For all the close losses, Iowa's computer rankings aren't hurting that badly. Pomeroy - 36. Sagarin - 38. RPI - 89.
 


1hawkeye1 said:
Well, I'm not even sure what that is, so no. Can someone explain it?
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It's the win%.
On the middle line is the score. (it's also the 50% line, where both teams have an equal chance to win in terms of probability)
The time goes from left to right.
Minnesota is on top, Iowa is on bottom.
Minnesota had the best chance to win the entire game until Iowa went up 54-50 (with 5:30 left), that was the first time Iowa (statistically) had the better chance to win.
 


Basically this tells you mathematically Iowa is not winning games they are supposed to win. With 1 minute to go teams up by 4 win 73% of the time. The law of averages are not working in Iowa's favor yet.

Spank, isn't this the 4th time Iowa was favored to win by a lot in the final minutes but lost? I am thinking Indiana, MSU, Purdue, and Minnesota, I forget if Iowa was favored in the Ohio State game.
 


Statistically, it's the third game.

MINNESOTA: 73% chance to win, under min to go
PURDUE: 75% chance to win, under min to go
MICHIGAN STATE: 83% chance to win, under 2 min to go; 55% chance to win, under min to go

Iowa never had the odds vs. Indiana or OSU late, but they had their chances to win or tie late.
Iowa was down just 3 with the ball against Indiana w/ 35 seconds to go and missed the three to tie.
OSU game was more of a crazy, unlikely comeback that got them within 4 pts (a missed FT would have put them within 3 just over a min left)
 


Perhaps our lack of veteran guard play is hindering us at the end of games. No one's fault. Just a lack of experience.:confused:
 


storminspank said:
For all the close losses, Iowa's computer rankings aren't hurting that badly. Pomeroy - 36. Sagarin - 38. RPI - 89.
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Please tell me the difference in these 3. Why is there such a big difference between Pomeroy/Sagarin and RPI?

Are the first 2 predicting how the rest of the season will play out and RPI only accounts for the games that have been played?

Please explain....in great detail.
 


ssckelley said:
Yep, sick of seeing these. This team would have almost clinched a NCAA bid if they would have just won 1/2 of the close games they basically gave away. Indiana, MSU, @ Purdue, and @ Minnesota all should have been wins.

This is the pains of having a young team, the talent is there but the ability to finish is not.
Click to expand...

Yep, that's where I'm at. This team should be 17-5 (6-3) at this point and have an NCAA bid locked up, barring catastrophe against the weaker part of the schedule that's coming up. But alas, three blown leads late (MSU, Purdue, Minnesota) and here we are. Even 16-6 (5-4), the team would be in far better shape than it is now. You know what they say about if's and but's, though.

It's not as if Iowa was just plain beaten in most of these games that it's lost. Instead, it had golden opportunities to win and let it slip away three times. That's hard to swallow.
 


The only game Iowa was completely outclassed was the Michigan game. Which makes sense as that teams has been ranked #1 in the nation and it was on the road.

Iowa has been great at home, shaky on the road (but not terrible, just can't close out games).
 




Not making free throws thruout the game has been a big factor in many of these losses. Against Minny, I believe the Hawks only made 6 out of 13 attempts? Purdue and Ohio State the same story. When the Hawks shoot 75+% from the line they usually win.
 


Hopefully the law of averages come into our favor the rest of the way and we go on a tear and win 7 games the rest of the way.
 


DunderMifflinHk said:
Hopefully the law of averages come into our favor the rest of the way and we go on a tear and win 7 games the rest of the way.
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Fran makes plenty of money so you can't feel to sorry for him. If he does make the NCAA tournament he gets something like $200,000 extra dollars, so you have to believe he feels how close Iowa is to making it. Every loss makes it less likely, but Iowa still has a shot at it. Next year the freshmen will be sophomores.
 


Please start a thread showing how Wisconsin is about 85% sure to win Wednesday. Maybe we need to have overwhelming odds against us...since we continue to buck the odds.
 






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