1-5 against ranked teams.

deanvogs said:
So not that the non conference is basically over, and Iowa has 2 losses (which is exactly what I figured they'd lose), here are my updated BIG predictions. I'm not going to game by game them, but rather put them in categories:

Homes games: I think Iowa will lose 1 home game this year.


Easier Road games: Minny, Illinois, jNW, Penn St. I have them 3-1 on the road against easier competition.
Tough Road games: IU, Michigan, Mich. St., Wisconsin, Ohio St. I see them struggling on the road VS top competition, going 1-4


So overall I have them at 12-6 in the BIG. That would be 23-8 and probably be good for a #4-#6 seed depending on how they do in the BIG tournament.


What say you, am I crazy?
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Switch Minnesota and IU and this is looking damn prophetic at this point. (Given wins over Penn State and Illinois) winning both gives us 14-4, losing both gives us 12-6. Not terrible by any means.

About that weather, lightning1, I would tell you to come down here but it's not a whole lot better than where you are. It was 3° yesterday morning and there has been snow on the ground everywhere for four days. Might have to leave the country to find good weather right now.
 
Say what you will, but Iowa is a better team this year than last. When the smoke clears, they will be in the hunt for a BT championship, either regular season or tournament, for the remainder of the year. I would remind you that the expectation for Iowa going into this season was for them to finish as HIGH as fourth. Quite frankly, a third place finish would be pretty darn good...but I hope for better! As to the argument that Iowa has not beaten a lot of highly ranked teams, or that they have not been able to close out some close games, that may well be true. However, how they have done in those areas in the past is not nearly so important as how they handle those situations in the future. I believe we will continue to get better and those victories will come. Sometimes, we make far too much of what has happened in past games; predict the future if you really want to take some risks...hindsight...blah.
 
Iowa is a better team than last year. Good enough to compete with ranked teams. Just not good enough to beat them?
 
Technically every team in the country is ranked. Why stop at 25? Better yet why go clear up to 25? That sure is an arbitrary number for a sport with a post-season tournament that allows 64 into the FINAL bracket.

In other words, this 1-5 stuff is random and meaningless. Do you know what happens to teams that act like certain opponents matter more than others? They get effing BEAT by Nebraska and PSU, that's what. Phone up Madison and ask them how cool they are being slapped around at home by Northwestern. If you want an even bigger laugh, go check out the first poll going into this season. Look at the teams who were ranked. Wanna know how I know Iowa can certainly beat great teams? Because Iowa is one of those teams.

Man oh man am I happy the Iowa players and coaches don't sit around obsessing about how many ranked teams they have beat or will beat this year. That's all I know.
 
1-5 record w no bad losses.

How do you account for teams that can be so off their games they get beat by poor teams, like MICH losing to Charlotte, a team w losers to College of Charlestown, UTSA, Rice, and LaTech. They must have the ability to really play very poor on occasion.

Or MSU getting creamed at home by UNC, a team that is 13-7 and sits 10th in the ACC.

Losing to teams ranked high, and above you while on the road is one thing, losing to poor teams means, simply means that you are always vulnerable to that possibility again.
 
Qualiy wins, no bad losses, and quality losses.

There's a reason why KenPom has IOWA at # 5 overall. They are consistently good at offense and defense, regardless of who, or where.
 
kctom said:
Qualiy wins, no bad losses, and quality losses.

There's a reason why KenPom has IOWA at # 5 overall. They are consistently good at offense and defense, regardless of who, or where.
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It's not just KenPom. Sagarin is similar in its ultimate goal of measuring team quality but entirely different. They have us at 8th. KenPom is more of a performance meter. Those sound extremely similar to identical but they're really not. A team can play over its head and fool KenPom with smoke and mirrors. Sagarin's measurement of your body of work is a little more difficult to fool.

There are two facts of life people hate but are just going to have to learn to get used to:
1. Team quality can be displayed in a game you lost.
2. Some unranked teams are better than other unranked teams.

For the first one, people hate the mere mention of moral victories but that is not what this is. Bad teams that lose to the 7th, 8th, 9th, 14th and 16th ranked teams in the country lose worse than great teams that lose to the 7th, 8th, 9th, 14th and 16th ranked teams do. One fact about Sagarin is Iowa could come out better than a team that actually WON one of those games. And guess what? That's a rightful quirk. You can't fluke your way to a claim that you've done something better than Iowa did if your true colors are exposed so regularly.

For two: This isn't a matter of beating Minnesota and Xavier vs beating Farliegh Dickinson and Penn. Every idiot gets that. They just aren't consistent about it. We beat UTEP by more than 40 in the same week they beat a good Tennessee club and lost by 4 to Kansas. They're 2nd in their conference with only one other 10-point loss, otherwise they're a solid club. Much like how we beat Northwestern by 26 during their hottest stretch.

Sagarin sees these things and says: Sorry folks, you may not like it but THIS STUFF MATTERS. It doesn't mean moral victories exist. They absolutely do not. We want a Top Ten ranking, a B1G Championship and a very high NCAA Tournament seed. But all that Sagarin and KenPom are saying is that the 8-1, 7-2 finish we need is very much in reach for this Iowa team. For that there is no argument.
 
Nicely laid out LibraHwak.

Iowa has consistently displayed quality team metrics in every game b/c their team has the proven skill sets and Fran has managed them well.

Untimely momentum changing Technicals, Gesell suddenly shoots 50% from line in last min, or Spartys Byrd Avg 1 pt/gm drains a 3 in last sec of shot clock are all events that will turn around for Iowa more close big games the 2h, the BTT, and the NC2As.

I see a higher ceiling for this team the 2nd half.
What about you?
 
Listening to the Katz/Greenberg espnu podcast from 1/31... Both Greenberg still has the hawks as a maybe final 4 team and Katz says at least second weekend.
 
Iowa has a top 15 defense to go with a top 5 offense. Wagering in Iowa to make 2nd wkend or Elite 8 is a pretty good Vegas bet.
 
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