Recent content by Westernhawk

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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Some people think all of this is benign. I think it's a mistake to just say "Trump's an idiot and we shouldn't worry." We should. He may well be an idiot, but he's an ambitious one. He has a history of testing the waters to see what he can get away with. He's doing it now with the...
  2. W

    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Also, not "societal collapse" level but certainly adds a level of uncertainty to our current situation. For those that could use a reminder, Trump campaigned heavily on the idea of improving the economy, right away. He said "I will lower prices day one." I'm no macroeconomics guru, but this...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    They are. I've done the race twice, and at that time of day, there is a very strong current that is going back out to sea. The race organizers admonish people over and over again to "sight" straight across the bay and aim for a key landmark, and not try swimming directly to the finish, as you...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Not exactly societal collapse, but adjacent, IMHO. Not a societal collapse warning, but perhaps a societal collapse watch:
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Fantastic. I love going to SF. I'll be there the first few days of June to do the Escape from Alcatraz Triathlon, which is an amazing event. They drop you from a boat right by Alcatraz and you swim to shore, and there is a massive current. Such a cool event. I'll walk around a lot there...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Thanks. I'm going to read that book. Where in California are you vacationing?
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    Tariffs

    One thing about globalization that doesn't get discussed enough is that it lifted millions out of extreme poverty.
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    Tariffs

    This is why I think it's such a great discussion topic. The fundamental assumption is that we can, or would want to, bring all of this back to the US. You eloquently noted that it can't and shouldn't work. I wonder if our administration is remotely aware of all of this. Today, Long...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Good points, all of them. I do feel like a specific school that poorly managed protests and antisemitism should be dealt with appropriately. We agree on that. I work at a university that attempted (maybe not so well) to straddle the very tough line between cracking down on some of these...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Speaking as a person who thinks it's very important to punt Trump and his cronies at the earliest possible time, I'm hoping that his obvious terrible choices (overcorrection is the most euphemistic term I've heard about this) for HHS and DOD Secretaries will make Trump's obvious poor leadership...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Thanks for the thoughtful post. Trump may be an idiot, but I don't give him a pass on everything just because he appears to be an idiot. I'm sure you'll disagree with this, but Trump obviously appointed unqualified leaders in his cabinet because they are loyal to him. Most (if not all of...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    I'm not sure how to square the "window" concept with whatever is going on now under Trump. First off, I'm not sure what to call MAGA. They have elements of alt-right extremism, but they are sort of unique. At any rate, I'm not sure what one considers radical, but: 1. Ignoring court rulings...
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Maybe the moderate left and moderate right can unite on that topic. ICE needs some kind of restraint and guardrails. My personal opinion (feel free to disagree) is that the far right is now perceived as center, so maybe we're just f'd.
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    Yes, it's sad and frustrating. Cue the idiots who support shitting in our own nest and say "cOloNiZe mArS!"
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    Odds of societal collapse in US...

    I think natural resources are a potent limiter to our future utopia. We need water, for example, and AI just uses more of it. The earth is going to be less habitable in some areas, and it might be a tall order to expect any kind of technology to fix that. I think the next big cause of...


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