Basketball Season Predictions

nickhawk

Well-Known Member
2012-13 Hawkeye Basketball Predictions:

For the first time since Horner and Brunner’s senior year, I think the Hawks will start the year with realistic expectations to be in consideration for a NCAA Tourney spot come March.

I break the season down into 3 segments:

Non-Conference Schedule: 11 Total Games
Toughest games: at Virginia Tech, Iowa State at home, at UNI
Predicted Non-conference record: 10-1 – Most probable loss at UNI

First 7 game stretch of Big 10 Play:
Schedule: Indiana, at Michigan, MSU, at Northwestern, Wisconsin, at OSU, at Purdue
Predicted record: 3-4
Predicted wins: MSU, at Northwestern, Wisconsin
Predicted losses: Indiana, at Michigan, at OSU & at Purdue

Last 11 games of Big 10 Play:
Schedule: PSU, at Minn, at WIS, Northwestern, at PSU, Minnesota, at NEB, Purdue, at IND, Illinois, NEB
Predicted record: 8-3
Predicted wins: PSU, Northwestern, at PSU, Minnesota, at NEB, Purdue, Illinois, NEB
Predicted losses: at Minnesota, at WIS, at IND

Overall predicted record: 21-8
Big 10 predicted record: 11-7

Starters:
PG: Gessell
SG: Marble
PF: Basabe
PF: White
C: Woodbury

Bench players to see significant minutes:
McCabe, Olasani, Ogelsby, May, Clemmons

Bench players to see limited minutes:
Ingram, Meyer, Stokes

Everything I have heard from the I-Club circuit sounds like Fran is planning on starting Woodbury and Gessell from day one. I don’t expect Woodbury to contribute more than about 5 points a game, but I am hopeful that he can run the floor extremely well, find the open man when pressured with double teams and alter some shots on defense with his size. I think Gessell makes an immediate impact at the point and gives Fran the up-tempo PG that ideally fits the system he wants to run. I think Olasani will be the most improved player on the team. The outside shooting of Ogelsby and the ability for Clemmons to spell Gessell at the point and provide solid on the ball defense will also be critical success factors for this team.
 


With the UNI game in Des Moines, they won't get the home cooking they got last year. So while I agree with you on the 10-1 non-con record, I don't think we lose to UNI.

As for the B1G schedule, I think we split with Minn, Wisc, Indiana, Northwestern and Purdue and sweep Neb and PSU. We lose to MSU, Mich and OSU and beat Illinois in our single game matchups. That comes out to a 10-8 record.

I think we'll go 1-1 in the B1G tourney to give us a final record of 21-10. Because of the 10-8 record regular season B1G record, we sneak into the NCAAs as a 10 seed.
 




I agree with the first two posters and see twenty-one plus wins if our guards do a good job. If they struggle then we could end up with the record posted by the third poster in this thread. I am an optimist and so I am with the first two posters.
 




2012-13 Hawkeye Basketball Predictions:

For the first time since Horner and Brunner’s senior year, I think the Hawks will start the year with realistic expectations to be in consideration for a NCAA Tourney spot come March.

You lost me there.
 


Ghost - you seem to get lost a lot. It's not hard to follow - this is the 1st year in a long time that the hawks have some big expectations for a good season.
 


20+ wins overall, 10+ wins in the BIG = NCAA tournament

Iowa has a favorable schedule and the only nonconference loss that is acceptable is ISU.
If Iowa dinks around a loses to PSU, Neb or Illinois then they will not be in the NCAA, unless they win at least 12 conference games. The SOS does not allow for them to have any "bad" losses.
 


Ghost - you seem to get lost a lot. It's not hard to follow - this is the 1st year in a long time that the hawks have some big expectations for a good season.

Ok, well, that's not what you said. You said that an NCAA berth is "realistic" to start the year, and I do not think it is. It's realistic the same way the Cubs winning the series next year is realistic.
 


Ok, well, that's not what you said. You said that an NCAA berth is "realistic" to start the year, and I do not think it is. It's realistic the same way the Cubs winning the series next year is realistic.

That's a completely ridiculous statement. The Cubs could play 100 theoretical seasons next year and maybe win the World Series twice, but even that would be a statistical stretch. The Iowa basketball team could play 100 theoretical seasons next year and probably reach the NCAA tournament between 15-25 times - and that's fairly conservative. Either way, your statement has a statistical margin of error approaching 750%. Try again, Ghost.
 




20+ wins overall, 10+ wins in the BIG = NCAA tournament

Iowa has a favorable schedule and the only nonconference loss that is acceptable is ISU.
If Iowa dinks around a loses to PSU, Neb or Illinois then they will not be in the NCAA, unless they win at least 12 conference games. The SOS does not allow for them to have any "bad" losses.

12 wins? No way. There has never been a B1G team with 10 conference wins that failed to make the NCAAs. If the Hawks finish 10-8, no way do they miss out.
 


Ok, well, that's not what you said. You said that an NCAA berth is "realistic" to start the year, and I do not think it is. It's realistic the same way the Cubs winning the series next year is realistic.

You're right about the Cubs winning the World Series next year not being realistic. But I think you are way off base if you think the chances of the Hawks making the NCAA Tournament this year are just as unrealistic.

I wouldn't bet on it, but I give them more than a zero percent chance. I'd say maybe 30% at this point, without having seen the team play yet.
 


That's a completely ridiculous statement. The Cubs could play 100 theoretical seasons next year and maybe win the World Series twice, but even that would be a statistical stretch. The Iowa basketball team could play 100 theoretical seasons next year and probably reach the NCAA tournament between 15-25 times - and that's fairly conservative. Either way, your statement has a statistical margin of error approaching 750%. Try again, Ghost.

LOL WUT??

Well, in 5,000,000 made-up simulations of next season, Iowa only made it to the tournament -4 times, so in fact, my statement is in the made-up margin of error.

Try again professor.
 




9-2 NC
10-8 Big Ten

19-10

One win one loss in BTT 20-11.

I think that with the above, we're NIT bound.

If we go 10-1 non conference, than it means we have no bad losses (on road against VT, or ISU) and at least one good win, (the one we don't lose) and we're looking at 20-9, and 21-10 after the BTT. I think that gets us in as a 9 or 10 seed.
 


As much as the kool-aid is making everyone believes Gesell and Woodbury are Freshman at Kentucky this year, they are actually Freshman at Iowa, and are not going to be coming out of the gates on pre-season All-American lists. They are nice pieces, but its not going to be realistic to go to the NCAA tourney until 2014.

I think it's more likely to see a standstill season or possibly a slight regression this season. I'm not sure where the points are going to come from consistently except for Marble. If Fran wants May to be his defensive stopper, then that means he has to take up a space on the offensive end as well, which is crippling.

Woodbury is going to be in so much foul trouble for the first half of the season he's not going to be able to get that many minutes to make a huge impact. He will definitely improve throughout the year, however.

If Gesell runs the point its going to be a steep learning curve, he'll hit shots, but he will have a hard time setting others up when he's being hounded by more athletic defenders. On defense, get ready for the matador for at least the first half of the season.
 


LOL WUT??

Well, in 5,000,000 made-up simulations of next season, Iowa only made it to the tournament -4 times, so in fact, my statement is in the made-up margin of error.

Try again professor.

It's gonna be really difficult to top this rebuttal.

Because in my mind, out of 100,000 simulations, the Cubs win every time.
 








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