Analzying Big Ten FB Schedules for All League Teams

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
I took a hard look at 2011 Big Ten football schedules Wednesday night for the first time...you can see a handy grid at this link and it might be something you will want to bookmark and refer to. Here are a few thoughts as to what jumped out at me for various reasons...

WISCONSIN doesn't play a road game until October 22nd...that's right, October 22nd. They have just four road dates all season. Their non-conference foes are UNLV, Oregon State, Northern Illinois and South Dakota, then they open Big Ten play at home against Nebraska, get a bye, home against the Hoosiers and then have back to back roadies at Michigan State and Ohio State. The Buckeyes will be at full strength by that game. Wisconsin's other two road games are at Minnesota and Illinois, with Purdue and Penn State at home. Wisconsin loses a lot of starters off of last year's team, but this is a pretty favorable schedule for them.

OHIO STATE will play the first five games without Terrelle Pryor, Coach Tressel and a few other key players and their third game of the year is at Miami (FL), plus they host Colorado in week four. Week Five is the Big Ten opener for them and they host Michigan State, likely one of the preseason favorites to win the Legends Division. Game Six, the first game back for the aforementioned suspension crew, is at Nebraska. It's not far fetched to think the Buckeyes will be 4-2 after six games, needing to win out @Illinois, Wisconsin, Indiana, @Purdue, Penn State and @Michigan to make it to the Big Ten title game on December 3rd. However, the Leaders Division doesn't really have a sure fire challenger to Ohio State this year, in my opinion.

ILLINOIS Big Ten road schedule is nice; Indiana, Purdue, Penn State and Minnesota. Nice as in, every one of those games is winnable. The home slate? Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin. With Arkansas State, South Dakota State, Arizona State and Western Michigan as their non-conference foes at home, the Illini will be bowling again in 2011...they don't play a road game until October 8th.

IOWA is the lone Big Ten team with a bye on October 1st, the week Big Ten play kicks off. Purdue hosts Notre Dame that week as well, as two league teams will miss league action in the first seven weeks of league play, with all teams playing the final two weeks of the season. Iowa plays at Penn State following their bye, having beaten the Nits in seven of their last eight meetings. Also, Iowa does not play any opponent after they come off a bye.

MICHIGAN doesn't see the road until October 8th when they play at Northwestern...they play at Iowa on November 5th, having hosted Purdue the week before...they host Nebraska and Ohio State to end the regular season.

MICHIGAN STATE plays Iowa on November 12th, and will have just hosted Minnesota the week before visiting Kinnick. They open the year at Ohio State but won't face Terrelle Pryor. They will also play at Nebraska this year.

MINNESOTA opens the year at USC. You think the Trojans will be champing at the bit in their season opener this year, being eligible for post season play again and looking to restore some pride to Heritage Hall? The Gophers open Big Ten play with back to back road games; Michigan and Purdue and they will face Nebraska the week before hosting Iowa.

NEBRASKA begins Big Ten play at Wisconsin, having had a roadie at Wyoming the week before. They get Ohio State, Michigan State and Iowa at home and will have played at Michigan before hosting the Hawkeyes.

NORTHWESTERN opens the season with three road games in their first four games. They will have played at home against Michigan before visiting Iowa.

PENN STATE will play at Indiana the week before it hosts Iowa and will close the season with a killer three game stretch. Following a bye week on November 5th, they host Nebraska then have back to back road games at Ohio State and Wisconsin.

PURDUE will limp into their home game against Iowa on November 19th having just played a gauntlet of a schedule. @PSU in Week 7, Illinois in Week 8, @Michigan in Week 9, @Wisconsin in Week 10 and Ohio State in Week 11. Throw in a home game against Notre Dame in Week 5 and you are looking at a nightmare of a slate.

One final thought here...just from a cursory glance at the schedules without having spent a great deal of time poring over rosters and really analyzing what each team will look like this year, but having a decent idea of who loses what, I don't see any Big Ten team getting to bowl season without at least two losses, which means none will play for the national title in 2012. If I had to give one pick as the team that I think has the best chance of being undefeated, while already having told you I don't think that is going to happen, I would say Nebraska, based upon what they return and their home and road Big Ten slate. Had Wisconsin not lost so much, they might have been the pick due to what I see as a schedule that plays out well for such a run.
 
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The only team that could beat OSU in the first 5 is Miami. That game is a pick 'em in my mind based on the fact that OSU will have no choice but to run the ball constantly. MSU will lay down in C-bus, they always do. I see OSU 4-1 going to Nebraska with that game being the swing game. Win that and go 11-1, lose it and who knows....
 


It will be fun playing for the spot in our league championship game. Non-conference losses & losses to teams in the other division are NOT as important as games vs. division foes. The SEC has had this spectacle for a decade now. Tie-breakers will be all we're talking about in November! It is possible that Iowa & Neb could enter week 13 with identical season records, yet the loser could go to the championship, rather than the winner. I love it! Or, Iowa could be 7-4 and Nebraska 9-2 entering their game, and a victory could clinch the championship game for the Hawks. The odds of a three-team tie at the end of the regular season (in either division) is highly likely.

Did I say tiebreakers? Iowa could lose to ISU, Pitt, and either PSU, Mich, or MSU and enter the Neb game with a chance to lose and still make the c.game. Or, both teams could enter week 12 tied for the lead, and if Iowa loses on the road to Purdue or Neb loses on the road to Michigan, winning that day after Thanksgiving game in Lincoln could allow the team with one more conference loss coming into the game to tie the other for the division championship & make the conf.champ.game by virtue of the tiebreaker of beating the other. There is at least a 50-50 chance the Legends division will have a 4-way tie entering the last regular season game of the season. I love it, I love it, I love it!
 


Jon, you said in the front page article that MSU did some dirty recruiting on signing day and had this happened a year ago, we may have seen KF run up the score for the first time at Iowa. Did I miss something? What did MSU do on signing day that was dirty?
 


I agree that its going to change the paradigm and offer a different type of fan experience this year when there is a playoff involved...conference losses have the potential to be less damaging than they used to be.
 


Obviously,the change to divisions immediately change any Iowa fans approach to how they root thru out the season.
Wisky?- Now,my only concern is how they play vs Neb and other Legends division teams....hopefully they win. Otherwise,I have no concerns with them playing all home games ect....not a seconds thought to it.
OSU? Again, only will be rooting for them vs Neb,MSU and Michgan ect. MSU will not beat them in Columbus,and they will be Nebby also...go Bucks.
PSU- hope they beat everyone they play in the Legends,like Nebby,and lose only to the Hawks..otherwise..who cares?
Illini?...win them all,who cares?

I now root against 5 teams,not 10.
Nebby has a murderers row of Big Ten opponents and has about a one in a million chance of running the table.
MSU is a threat,and we need them to lose to OSU,and PSU,and Iowa,of course.
Nebby needs to lose to OSU,PSU,Wisky...and Iowa,of course.
Michigan,needs to lose to OSU and Iowa...and another game .
I think Iowa could win the Legends at 5-3 with tiebreakers over MSU and Michigan even tho the Hawks lose to Nebby,PSU and Purdue....
Nebby goes 4-4 with losses to OSU,Wisky,Michigan and PSU.

This is going to be crazy...but fun.
 




If history has taught us anything...it's that fOSU will win the B10 every single year.
 




I think the new Big 10 format will benefit Iowa greatly. As of October 28th, Iowa will have only played 20% of their inter-divisional games. If Iowa continues it's history of playing best in November it will have more of an impact than before. Iowa could start the Big 10 0-2 and still control it's own destiny to win the Legends divison.
 


I am not sure where all the awe of Neb is coming from...has anyone watched them play recently? They are installing a new offense, they do not have a quarterback who can hit the broad side of a barn, and while they have put together a good run in a few games, they have also struggled mightily against teams that are markedly not good (ISU last year, and many other years as well...Colorado...). They can play some defense, but it will be interesting to see how their trick defense to stop the spreads they saw in the Big 12 will morph to handle the run focus of the Big 10. You have seen how Oklahoma pushes them around with their running game nearly every year. Not saying they will not win some games, but they are far from the being one of the better team in the conference this year.
 


Pretty good analysis, although USC is still ineligible to participate in a bowl in 2011 (appeal still pending). The B10's division format is going to be spectacular and the championship game pretty special. Reasons like this are why college football has the best regular season and should not dream of attempting to institute a playoff system.
 




hawkfan8691 said:
Jon, you said in the front page article that MSU did some dirty recruiting on signing day and had this happened a year ago, we may have seen KF run up the score for the first time at Iowa. Did I miss something? What did MSU do on signing day that was dirty?
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I'm also very interested in hearing what happened here. I've heard rumblings about MSU dirty recruiting Darian Cooper very late in the process, but never heard any details. Can anyone provide some more insight here?
 


SWIowaHawkeye said:
I am not sure where all the awe of Neb is coming from...has anyone watched them play recently? They are installing a new offense, they do not have a quarterback who can hit the broad side of a barn, and while they have put together a good run in a few games, they have also struggled mightily against teams that are markedly not good (ISU last year, and many other years as well...Colorado...). They can play some defense, but it will be interesting to see how their trick defense to stop the spreads they saw in the Big 12 will morph to handle the run focus of the Big 10. You have seen how Oklahoma pushes them around with their running game nearly every year. Not saying they will not win some games, but they are far from the being one of the better team in the conference this year.
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It probably comes from the fact that Pelini puts together excellent defenses, which will keep you in most games. The players are getting more familiar with the schemes, the talent is getting better, the team should be getting better. Keep in mind that DoNU has been in every game, even ones we lost in the past couple of year, even with a pathetic offense.

If our offense can be merely average against top teams (and ISU :eek:), we probably only would have lost a game or two in the past couple of years.
 


HawkeyeMike23 said:
You're not playing in the B12 north anymore buddy.
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We also don't have to deal with top teams Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., A&M, and texa$$ every year.

I would say that the (old) Big 12 is a better football conference, and the top teams were (are) better than the (old) B1G's teams.
 






74Hunter said:
We also don't have to deal with top teams Oklahoma, Oklahoma St., A&M, and texa$$ every year.

I would say that the (old) Big 12 is a better football conference, and the top teams were (are) better than the (old) B1G's teams.
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I suppose this may have a hint of truth if you actually did have to deal with those teams on a yearly basis. Nebby was in the North not the South and if memory serves last year was the first time you played all 4 of these 'powerhouse' programs in the regular season in like the past four seasons.

74Hunter said:
While traditionally they are not, they did finish in the top 20 last year, correct?
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And by this token that automatically takes Texas out as a top program. I wouldn't argue that Texas is a bad football program because of one bad year so I would expect you not to argue that one good year makes Okla St and A&M magically a top team year in and year out.
 


Also, Mizzou, which for most of the season was the best team in the conference, got beat by a very average B10 in bowl season. The B12 is not even a little bit better than the B10 in football.
 


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