About Predicting Next Year's Record

[BSpringsteen]

But we aren't a 9-3 team, we're an 8-4 team. Or a 7.9 - 3.7 team.

I will grant you that a lot of those 4's are a result of the patented September Iowa Football Brainfart, and that if we avoided those, we would average closer to 9-3.

 

[JonDMiller]

But we aren't a 9-3 team, we're an 8-4 team. Or a 7.9 - 3.7 team.

I will grant you that a lot of those 4's are a result of the patented September Iowa Football Brainfart, and that if we avoided those, we would average closer to 9-3.

If you'd like to change the course of what we are discussing, that's fine. However, you stated Iowa is a second tier Big Ten team, which is untrue.

 

[BSpringsteen]

If you'd like to change the course of what we are discussing, that's fine. However, you stated Iowa is a second tier Big Ten team, which is untrue.

OK Fair enough. Iowa is an 8-4 team, and a top tier big ten team. Embrace it.

Unless tOSU is a tier all by itself.

 

[JonDMiller]

OK Fair enough. Iowa is an 8-4 team, and a top tier big ten team. Embrace it.

Unless tOSU is a tier all by itself.

OK....NOW you got me

 

[BSpringsteen]

Actually that 21 number is probably going to drop to 19 after this year's data is factored in.

I realize you are going to call me out for this comment, and fair enough maybe I deserve it.

But I come from the camp that when you have the highest paid coach in the Big 10 by a long shot, have asked your alums and boosters to pay for the kind of facilities that Iowa has , and have $65 conference tickets, if you're not part of that group, something is SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY wrong.

If we weren't in that group, I'd say it was total BS.

 

[Scotttyd]

Maybe I am overly optimistic but I do not think we will have the big drop off people are thinking. Our offense should be pretty good (potentially better when you factor in everybody will be a year older and more experienced and matured).
RB - everybody of importance back (although we did see how that went this year).
WR - We loose DJK but have two solid WR's to start
QB- I think JVB will be good - although it is a big unknown - could be great?
TE - lose a starter, Herman is back, and we are known lately for producing solid TE;s (CJ?)
OL - 3 of 5 returning, the lack of experience did hurt us at the beginning of the year - a year bigger and better

Def is a big question mark, but we still have some studs (Bins and Daniels) back, hopefully are younger LB's have some time to mature. Sash is a hard one to replace, but I think we can realistically expect to have as many or more wins, it all just depends on how the breaks go.

 

[JonDMiller]

I realize you are going to call me out for this comment, and fair enough maybe I deserve it.

But I come from the camp that when you have the highest paid coach in the Big 10 by a long shot, have asked your alums and boosters to pay for the kind of facilities that Iowa has , and have $65 conference tickets, if you're not part of that group, something is SERIOUSLY SERIOUSLY wrong.

If we weren't in that group, I'd say it was total BS.

I really am not on a calling out witch hunt, and I probably need to back off for about 8 weeks in bringing up positives.

So I guess we agree then that Iowa is getting what it is paying for; Top 16 football budget, Top 16 winning percentage results, 9 bowl games in last 10 years with likely 7 of them being January bowl games, 2nd most wins in Big Ten conference play in that time span, Four end of season Top 8 finishes in that time span, two Big Ten titles in that time span, etc?

What good does it do to say "Well, if we were not in that group, I'd say it's total BS' when we ARE IN THAT GROUP?

 

[BSpringsteen]

OK Jon - we've gone back and forth and now we agree on several things.

Iowa is a second tier Big Ten team if Ohio State is in a tier by itself
Iowa is a top tier Big Ten team if the tiers are broken down into 3
Iowa has a top 16 football budget, and is a top 19 winning percentage team.
Iowa gets what it pays for.

 

[SeattleHawkeye]

No, we're not in that upper tier group. I consider the upper tier being elite, and OSU is there by itself. PSU, UM, and I'm guessing Nebby would like to think they're in that group, but it's easy to argue they aren't, b/c none of those programs have had the recent, continued success of OSU.

And Jon, you're not looking at things from a "macro" view! (Sorry, couldn't resist pulling your "macro" usage...which I won't forget anytime soon.) Ferentz is historically an 8-4 coach. Some people are cool w/ that, and some have higher or lower aspirations depending on what talent he has returning. I think next season they could definitely win more than 8 games, w/ both their schedule and looking at a best case scenario...but after this season I just can't say they'll win more than that. Ferentz is an 8-4 coach and IA is an 8-4 program. It is what it is, painfully evidenced by this season.

 

[coralville]

well, we will definately lose to Northwestern---that is a yearly lock

 

[jameskalina]

No, we're not in that upper tier group. I consider the upper tier being elite, and OSU is there by itself. PSU, UM, and I'm guessing Nebby would like to think they're in that group, but it's easy to argue they aren't, b/c none of those programs have had the recent, continued success of OSU.

And Jon, you're not looking at things from a "macro" view! (Sorry, couldn't resist pulling your "macro" usage...which I won't forget anytime soon.) Ferentz is historically an 8-4 coach. Some people are cool w/ that, and some have higher or lower aspirations depending on what talent he has returning. I think next season they could definitely win more than 8 games, w/ both their schedule and looking at a best case scenario...but after this season I just can't say they'll win more than that. Ferentz is an 8-4 coach and IA is an 8-4 program. It is what it is, painfully evidenced by this season.

Iowa would be closer to a 9-3 program if the coaching staff ever figures out a way to beat Northwestern. Northwestern beating Iowa 5 out of the last six games puts the Wildcats on a level with Ohio State's success rate against the Hawks. No other Big Ten team comes close in matching this against Iowa in recent years.

Edit: I'll go on record now saying one of Iowa's losses in 2011 will be to Northwestern in Iowa City.

 

[BSpringsteen]

Iowa would be closer to a 9-3 program if the coaching staff ever figures out a way to beat Northwestern. Northwestern beating Iowa 5 out of the last six games puts the Wildcats on a level with Ohio State's success rate against the Hawks. No other Big Ten team comes close in matching this against Iowa in recent years.

You know what, beating Northwestern annually, and not having the patented Iowa Football September Brainfart, would make Iowa a 10-2 team.

 

[jameskalina]

You know what, beating Northwestern annually, and not having the patented Iowa Football September Brainfart, would make Iowa a 10-2 team.

So which team will have the honors of beating the Hawks next September? Will it be Iowa State or Pitt?

 

[JonDMiller]

If u r an 8-4 program over the past decade u r a top 20 program in the sport. Iowa is one of the 20 best football programs in the sport

Take that success then compare it to the other bcs conference teams that r also there, look at their winning tradition, national title lineage, recruiting advantages, etc.

Then come back to this post and let's see just what it is we r debating about?

I realize I am not being negative enuf for the self flagellate crowd right now. Sorry

 

[hawkfaninTX]

I have to agree with Jon on this one.

~Are you more of an investor in the stocks that are a little more "higher risk", or do you allocate your funds across many different things to diversify, guaranteeing a profit over many years of investment.

**Translation: would your trade an average teams most years, that occasionally has great years -for a team that is a roller coaster of results bad years(=no bowl) mixed in with great years (good to great bowl)?

I also am probably the only one throwing out two of the losses to NW..... '08 & '09 due to injuries to critical players (Greene & Stanzi). that would level off the results against NW, and we would have had a 3 game winning streak against them had those results held true!! Would we have made it 4 this year with all that momentum?

 

[gohawks71]

Again, I just don't understand this line of thinking. I suspect that once we get to January or February, and people have time to let these raw emotions pass, they'll come around to looking at the big picture of this program and realize that comments like this were made in the emotion of disappointment, because the data just doesn't bear it out.

Jon, this is not raw emotion. This is just myself coming to an agreement not to ever get so emotionally invested into my beloved Hawks. I am almost the same age as you and having a family that has had season tickets since before the Evy era, I know of the gambit of wins and losses this program has celebrated/endured. I found it eye opening reading one of your columns about "our" era of Hawk fans that could possibly be a little spoiled with the success that Hayden and Ferentz brought. I thought about that a while after every one of our games (win or loss) and tried to take a step back to look at our program without the cup of hawk-aid in my hand. After continually seeing year after year going by and thinking about how good I think we should be or not, we end pretty much up within the confines of my prediction. That is about as big picture as I think it can get. I am not going into a bunch of self leveling stats or diatribe about unrealistic expectations, this is just how it is for me.

I see two top tier programs in this conference right now in OSU and Mich. I can’t count PSU in that category because I am speaking with reference to that last 50 to 60 years of B10 play only. PSU would count if you put emphasis on their history of wins and having what I believe is the last thing that is required to be a top tier and that is a NC.

Bottom line again is that this season taught me something. We are and will always be a second tier program so there is no need to fall on the sword to ask for a NC title again. Just try (and the Lord knows I am trying) to be happy with this status and move on.

Take care, safe travels and I hope everyone has a Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[jameskalina]

I have to agree with Jon on this one.

~Are you more of an investor in the stocks that are a little more "higher risk", or do you allocate your funds across many different things to diversify, guaranteeing a profit over many years of investment.

**Translation: would your trade an average teams most years, that occasionally has great years -for a team that is a roller coaster of results bad years(=no bowl) mixed in with great years (good to great bowl)?

I also am probably the only one throwing out two of the losses to NW..... '08 & '09 due to injuries to critical players (Greene & Stanzi). that would level off the results against NW, and we would have had a 3 game winning streak against them had those results held true!! Would we have made it 4 this year with all that momentum?

Injuries are a part of the game. We cannot throw out (or ignore) two of the Northwestern losses because of injuries. Using the injury logic let's also throw out the 2009 loss to Ohio State because of Stanzi's injury, and the 2010 loss to Wisconsin due to injuries of our linebackers.

The facts are:

1. Northwestern beat Iowa 5 out of 6 times, a feat only Ohio State can match during this same period with the difference Ohio State being a perennial top 10 team and Northwestern not even a perennial top 25 team during this time period.

2. Iowa loses a non conference game (or comes very close to losing a non conference game) in September.

The coaching staff, for whatever reason, does not seem to adjust to these trends.

Based on said trends I again will go on record and say Northwestern will beat Iowa next year. I will also go on record saying the Hawks will lose to someone in September. Other than this I am not certain what the Hawks will do during the remainder of the 2011 season. I will wait until after spring practice to make an overall won loss prediction for 2011.