Elimination Day

[shonblatt]

Things are falling into place.

Notre Dame, Baylor, Florida, Michigan, Oklahoma State all lost and are out.

So there are basically 8 teams left competing for the 4 playoff spots.

Oklahoma finished strong and is almost certainly in.
Iowa/MSU winner will be in.
Alabama will be in if they beat Florida.
Clemson will be in if they beat North Carolina.

If Alabama or Clemson slips up:

Ohio State (done playing)
Stanford (if they beat USC)
North Carolina (If they beat down Clemson)

I can't see anyone else having a shot to get in.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

I'll say it again....really sucks how Ohio St is just sitting there, sitting pretty, getting a golden parachute pretty much any which way it turns out.

 

[MiniMoeHawk]

Things are falling into place.

Notre Dame, Baylor, Florida, Michigan, Oklahoma State all lost and are out.

So there are basically 8 teams left competing for the 4 playoff spots.

Oklahoma finished strong and is almost certainly in.
Iowa/MSU winner will be in.
Alabama will be in if they beat Florida.
Clemson will be in if they beat North Carolina.

If Alabama or Clemson slips up:

Ohio State (done playing)
Stanford (if they beat USC)
North Carolina (If they beat down Clemson)

I can't see anyone else having a shot to get in.

UNC is out. They played two FCS teams and lost to a god awful South Carolina team. That loss is worse than losing to Texas. Beating Clemson isn't enough to pass the field.

 

[Hawk1960]

Things are falling into place.

Notre Dame, Baylor, Florida, Michigan, Oklahoma State all lost and are out.

So there are basically 8 teams left competing for the 4 playoff spots.

Oklahoma finished strong and is almost certainly in.
Iowa/MSU winner will be in.
Alabama will be in if they beat Florida.
Clemson will be in if they beat North Carolina.

If Alabama or Clemson slips up:

Ohio State (done playing)
Stanford (if they beat USC)
North Carolina (If they beat down Clemson)

I can't see anyone else having a shot to get in.

I don't see Florida beating Alabama but would not be surprised to see NC upset Clemson. A one loss and defending champ OSU will get in ahead of a one loss NC and two loss Stanford.

 

[thehawk]

I'll say it again....really sucks how Ohio St is just sitting there, sitting pretty, getting a golden parachute pretty much any which way it turns out.

I don't see it that way, because they need help. It's better to be able to control your own destiny.

 

[hawkeyebob62]

I'll say it again....really sucks how Ohio St is just sitting there, sitting pretty, getting a golden parachute pretty much any which way it turns out.

It sucks more that Oklahoma has a loss to Texas--which was SHUT-FREAKING OUT by Iowa State-- and is in. The talk of "Since the Texas loss..." is bull-carp. They've beaten paper tiger Big XII teams missing their best players, or have zero defense, or simply weren't as good once they played real teams.

I have no beef with Clemson, or even Alabama. Stanford? ND? They have pretty much cancelled out and should be crossed off the list.

If UNC wins, they have every right to "expect" being in the conversation as much as any other one-loss team, and certainly more than any two-loss team. It's not like they're the only team that played FCS, they just happened to play two of them. Unlike some (cough $EC teams and F$U cough) they weren't playing them the week before Thanksgiving.

 

[bitmap]

I don't see Florida beating Alabama but would not be surprised to see NC upset Clemson. A one loss and defending champ OSU will get in ahead of a one loss NC and two loss Stanford.

And if that happens you can bet on tOSU being in the same bracket as Iowa, probably the 2-3 side of it. After all, "Iowa didn't play the conference powers"...

 

[shonblatt]

And if that happens you can bet on tOSU being in the same bracket as Iowa, probably the 2-3 side of it. After all, "Iowa didn't play the conference powers"...

I'd be fine with that.

If we think we have a chance to win the title, we have to believe we can beat anyone.

 

[Cardinals54]

It sucks more that Oklahoma has a loss to Texas--which was SHUT-FREAKING OUT by Iowa State-- and is in. The talk of "Since the Texas loss..." is bull-carp. They've beaten paper tiger Big XII teams missing their best players, or have zero defense, or simply weren't as good once they played real teams.

I have no beef with Clemson, or even Alabama. Stanford? ND? They have pretty much cancelled out and should be crossed off the list.

If UNC wins, they have every right to "expect" being in the conversation as much as any other one-loss team, and certainly more than any two-loss team. It's not like they're the only team that played FCS, they just happened to play two of them. Unlike some (cough $EC teams and F$U cough) they weren't playing them the week before Thanksgiving.

I couldn't agree more here. Same for Bama and Mississippi. It shouldn't matter WHEN you lose. A loss should be treated as a loss. I guess Ohio State could make the claim by this reasoning "Since the Michigan State loss"...
By rights, Iowa SHOULD be ranked ahead of Oklahoma AND Alabama imo. We should be sitting at #2 right now. Plain and simple if things were done correctly if you are from a power 5 conference and have beaten everyone you've been asked to beat to this point, I'm not sure how two 1 loss teams are justified to be rated ahead of the undefeated team, regardless of who it is. When the selection committee runs out of undefeateds, THEN they should start in with who the best 1 loss teams are.

 

[bitmap]

I'd be fine with that.

If we think we have a chance to win the title, we have to believe we can beat anyone.

The more I think about it, and if chaos reigns, we may end up at #1 and the Buckeyes come in at #4. And they will be the ones getting the "Cinderella" label. Whatever the case, whoever the case, they will have to get by the Hawkeyes to advance and that isn't going to be easy. I just don't see an all B!G NCG under any circumstance.

 

[hawks263344]

The scenario that I find really interesting is this: Say we lose on the last play or pretty much last play. Maybe we have some clearly bad calls go against us. Clemson wins and eliminates UNC. USC wins and eliminates Stanford ( maybe wouldn't be necessary) These I see as both 50/50 games so they could both very well happen. What if also Alabama also beats itself vs Florida. Then you have basically Alabama, OSU, and Iowa vying for the final spot. Alabama would have TWO loses! They would be 5 - 2 vs good teams (teams with 8 or more wins). Iowa would be 12 - 1 with a record of 3 - 1 vs good teams. Ohio St would be 11 - 1 with a record of 1 - 1 vs good teams. Yes Ohio St only played TWO good teams all season. Ohio St would have one less win than Iowa. We would have both lost to the same team and in similar fashion. EXCEPT: Ohio St would have lost at home vs back-up QB's and Iowa would have lost at a neutral site against the starting QB. In this scenario who would you not pick Iowa over Ohio St and a two lose Alabama team?

 

[cuihawk]

The scenario that I find really interesting is this: Say we lose on the last play or pretty much last play. Maybe we have some clearly bad calls go against us. Clemson wins and eliminates UNC. USC wins and eliminates Stanford ( maybe wouldn't be necessary) These I see as both 50/50 games so they could both very well happen. What if also Alabama also beats itself vs Florida. Then you have basically Alabama, OSU, and Iowa vying for the final spot. Alabama would have TWO loses! They would be 5 - 2 vs good teams (teams with 8 or more wins). Iowa would be 12 - 1 with a record of 3 - 1 vs good teams. Ohio St would be 11 - 1 with a record of 1 - 1 vs good teams. Yes Ohio St only played TWO good teams all season. Ohio St would have one less win than Iowa. We would have both lost to the same team and in similar fashion. EXCEPT: Ohio St would have lost at home vs back-up QB's and Iowa would have lost at a neutral site against the starting QB. In this scenario who would you not pick Iowa over Ohio St and a two lose Alabama team?

This is what I don't get...why should it be a foregone conclusion that a one loss OSU gets in over a one loss Iowa in the scenario that Bama or Clemson trip up, and why should Oklahoma get a pass for the loss to TX? I actually heard some chick on ESPN try to argue that a two loss Stanford team would be back in play in this scenario...may have been the stupidest thing I've ever heard argued. I'm thrilled that we're unbeaten, and prefer our position to depending on someone else to lose, but it kills me that we are not even being talked about in these one loss scenarios.

I know...just win, baby.

 

[HawksMN]

I'll say it again....really sucks how Ohio St is just sitting there, sitting pretty, getting a golden parachute pretty much any which way it turns out.

This is bothering me as well. Very much.