Iowa's vs. Minnesota's tourney bid odds as of March 7

[SwirlinLingerie]

I lived in Minneapolis for eight years and married a Minnesotan who went to grad school at UM, so I fully admit that I go out of my way to find ways to stick it to the Gophers.

But putting my bias aside, I would place better odds on Iowa making the NCAA tournament right now than Minnesota. I think Iowa wins the next two at least, which, in my mind, will likely put them in the thick of things.

I think Minnesota drops one to a gritty Purdue team playing at home on senior night, and then gets out hustled by Illinois in the first round.

8-10 in the conference, losers of three straight, losers of seven of the last ten...I believe the committee has an increasing awareness of the limits of the RPI (particularly compared to KenPom and BPI), and the case study of Iowa vs. Minnesota will provide even more clarity as to the marginal value of the RPI for evaluating teams.

 

[hawkforlife9]

21 RPI is tough to overcome. Wins against Mi State, Wisc. and Indiana look pretty good. We split with them.. so no real advantage there.

 

[hawktransplant]

I lived in Minneapolis for eight years and married a Minnesotan who went to grad school at UM, so I fully admit that I go out of my way to find ways to stick it to the Gophers.

But putting my bias aside, I would place better odds on Iowa making the NCAA tournament right now than Minnesota. I think Iowa wins the next two at least, which, in my mind, will likely put them in the thick of things.

I think Minnesota drops one to a gritty Purdue team playing at home on senior night, and then gets out hustled by Illinois in the first round.

8-10 in the conference, losers of three straight, losers of seven of the last ten...I believe the committee has an increasing awareness of the limits of the RPI (particularly compared to KenPom and BPI), and the case study of Iowa vs. Minnesota will provide even more clarity as to the marginal value of the RPI for evaluating teams.

I hope you are right. Unfortunately, I am thinking it is more likely that we will be playing in the NIT.

Sorry about doing eight years in minnysoda. You must be one tough dude. I couldn't do it.

 

[Xerxes]

They just beat the team that may get the overall #1 seed in the tournament. They're in good shape.

 

[Igothawked]

I would tend to agree with the above poster. Had they not won that game, they would most likely be out completely. However that win is going to carry some weight and likely carry them right into the dance. Who knows though. I really wish the Hawks would have won at Nebraska and Indiana would have beaten Minnesota. I think had that been the case the Hawks would be sitting IN and the Gooftroop sitting out.

 

[SwirlinLingerie]

21 RPI is tough to overcome. Wins against Mi State, Wisc. and Indiana look pretty good. We split with them.. so no real advantage there.

We'll see. We can't get in on the RPI argument, so in my mind, this is the next best scenario, which is to underscore how ridiculous the index is. So Iowa finishes at 9-9 and in sole possession of sixth place in the best conference in the country, and you are trying to tell me they are ranked 50 some places behind a team that finished 8-10 in the same conference, in 8th or 9th place, was destroyed by Iowa in their most recent meeting, and other than a win against the top ranked team, has essentially been tanking since January?

It'll be the perfect case study for why the RPI is a ridiculous tool for evaluating the quality of a team. Minnesota will be ranked 50 spots higher than Iowa because the Hawkeyes played 6 teams with RPI values from 261 to 342 in December, instead of 6 teams with RPI values from 150 to 260. So it comes down to Iowa needing to play a few more Gardner Webbs and Western Kentuckys in place of Central Michigans and Coppin States.

Great criteria for selecting an NCAA tournament team. Super useful tool.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

I lived in Minneapolis for eight years and married a Minnesotan who went to grad school at UM, so I fully admit that I go out of my way to find ways to stick it to the Gophers.

But putting my bias aside, I would place better odds on Iowa making the NCAA tournament right now than Minnesota. I think Iowa wins the next two at least, which, in my mind, will likely put them in the thick of things.

I think Minnesota drops one to a gritty Purdue team playing at home on senior night, and then gets out hustled by Illinois in the first round.

8-10 in the conference, losers of three straight, losers of seven of the last ten...I believe the committee has an increasing awareness of the limits of the RPI (particularly compared to KenPom and BPI), and the case study of Iowa vs. Minnesota will provide even more clarity as to the marginal value of the RPI for evaluating teams.

Minnesota is a LOCK right now! It is a done deal. No matter if they finish 8-10,I know it is hard to believe for some on here, but it is True. They are in.

 

[PCHawk]

We'll see. We can't get in on the RPI argument, so in my mind, this is the next best scenario, which is to underscore how ridiculous the index is. So Iowa finishes at 9-9 and in sole possession of sixth place in the best conference in the country, and you are trying to tell me they are ranked 50 some places behind a team that finished 8-10 in the same conference, in 8th or 9th place, was destroyed by Iowa in their most recent meeting, and other than a win against the top ranked team, has essentially been tanking since January?

It'll be the perfect case study for why the RPI is a ridiculous tool for evaluating the quality of a team. Minnesota will be ranked 50 spots higher than Iowa because the Hawkeyes played 6 teams with RPI values from 261 to 342 in December, instead of 6 teams with RPI values from 150 to 260. So it comes down to Iowa needing to play a few more Gardner Webbs and Western Kentuckys in place of Central Michigans and Coppin States.

Great criteria for selecting an NCAA tournament team. Super useful tool.

Best rant ever! Take a look at Minnesota's non conference schedule if you want to be even more annoyed.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Best rant ever! Take a look at Minnesota's non conference schedule if you want to be even more annoyed.

What about there non-conference schedule??

Minnesota played 8 teams ranked in the RPI Top 100 and Iowa played 2 and that is why we are on the bubble right now.

 

[clicheusername3]

We'll see. We can't get in on the RPI argument, so in my mind, this is the next best scenario, which is to underscore how ridiculous the index is. So Iowa finishes at 9-9 and in sole possession of sixth place in the best conference in the country, and you are trying to tell me they are ranked 50 some places behind a team that finished 8-10 in the same conference, in 8th or 9th place, was destroyed by Iowa in their most recent meeting, and other than a win against the top ranked team, has essentially been tanking since January?

It'll be the perfect case study for why the RPI is a ridiculous tool for evaluating the quality of a team. Minnesota will be ranked 50 spots higher than Iowa because the Hawkeyes played 6 teams with RPI values from 261 to 342 in December, instead of 6 teams with RPI values from 150 to 260. So it comes down to Iowa needing to play a few more Gardner Webbs and Western Kentuckys in place of Central Michigans and Coppin States.

Great criteria for selecting an NCAA tournament team. Super useful tool.

Unfortunately there is 2 months of the season played out of conference, which the RPI (and every other index) measures. It's not like the RPI is some secret formula that isn't available to anyone outside of the RPI websites and it's not like schools don't have any control over who they play out of conference.

 

[ICHAWK]

We'll see. We can't get in on the RPI argument, so in my mind, this is the next best scenario, which is to underscore how ridiculous the index is. So Iowa finishes at 9-9 and in sole possession of sixth place in the best conference in the country, and you are trying to tell me they are ranked 50 some places behind a team that finished 8-10 in the same conference, in 8th or 9th place, was destroyed by Iowa in their most recent meeting, and other than a win against the top ranked team, has essentially been tanking since January?

It'll be the perfect case study for why the RPI is a ridiculous tool for evaluating the quality of a team. Minnesota will be ranked 50 spots higher than Iowa because the Hawkeyes played 6 teams with RPI values from 261 to 342 in December, instead of 6 teams with RPI values from 150 to 260. So it comes down to Iowa needing to play a few more Gardner Webbs and Western Kentuckys in place of Central Michigans and Coppin States.

Great criteria for selecting an NCAA tournament team. Super useful tool.

The Big 10 has UNBALANCED conference schedules so you can't really just compare teams based on conference schedule. Iowa had an easier conference schedule than Minnesota so they had more chances to beat poorer teams. I still don't understand how people can't grasp this easy to grasp fact. If you want to compare both teams head to head they split. So I guess we don't gain much info than both teams won on their home court.

And if you want to really look at a better thing that RPI this time of year, Kenpom has Minnesota at 17 and Iowa at 31. I think Iowa is good enough to be an NCAA team but to say Minnesota isn't is just plain dumb.

 

[jacknicholson]

Hard to imagine a team with an 8-10 conference record making the Dance. They would have to make the championship game in the Big Ten Tournament. Remember we slaughtered them in TubbyFats most disappointing game, plus we almost beat them in Minneapolis.They needed a last second three to win the game. No way they get in ahead of us.......

This is of course mere conjecture same as everyone else.....

 

[PCHawk]

What about there non-conference schedule??

Minnesota played 8 teams ranked in the RPI Top 100 and Iowa played 2 and that is why we are on the bubble right now.

Do you know how high in the top 100 they were ranked? I just looked at the names of the schools but obviously there are no name schools ranked higher then one would think. I wasn't implying that their resume wasn't better, just that there wasn't as big of a gap as the RPI says.

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Do you know how high in the top 100 they were ranked? I just looked at the names of the schools but obviously there are no name schools ranked higher then one would think. I wasn't implying that their resume wasn't better, just that there wasn't as big of a gap as the RPI says.

So Duke, Memphis, Stanfords and Florida State are no name schools?

You have never heard of Richmond and or USC?

 

[HawkPrdatr40]

Hard to imagine a team with an 8-10 conference record making the Dance. They would have to make the championship game in the Big Ten Tournament. Remember we slaughtered them in TubbyFats most disappointing game, plus we almost beat them in Minneapolis.They needed a last second three to win the game. No way they get in ahead of us.......

This is of course mere conjecture same as everyone else.....

Hard to believe, not really IMO.

Just think Illinois will most likely finish 8-10 and my guess are in as well..

 

[volhawk50]

8-10 in the conference, losers of three straight, losers of seven of the last ten...I believe the committee has an increasing awareness of the limits of the RPI (particularly compared to KenPom and BPI), and the case study of Iowa vs. Minnesota will provide even more clarity as to the marginal value of the RPI for evaluating teams.

If you want to compare it to KenPom and BPI, the Goophs are 17th and 23rd, respectively. Rankings-wise, there is no way for this team to not make the tournament. They are substantially above us in every ranking system. They have the 10th strongest schedule and have a better record than Iowa. We are not going to get in the tournament over Minnesota, the question is whether we can get in with them.

 

[PCHawk]

So Duke, Memphis, Stanfords and Florida State are no name schools?

You have never heard of Richmond and or USC?[/QUOTE


All the other ones. Or did they just play those 6 world beater teams?

 

[BryceC]

No bcs conf team has been left out of the tourney with a sub 55 rpi since it expanded. I will bet anybody any amount of money they want to put down Minny is in.

 

[volhawk50]

So Duke, Memphis, Stanfords and Florida State are no name schools?

You have never heard of Richmond and or USC?

USC is in the RPI top 100? The fighting Aaron Fullers of USC? I thought they were below .500 and horrible.

 

[clicheusername3]

No bcs conf team has been left out of the tourney with a sub 55 rpi since it expanded. I will bet anybody any amount of money they want to put down Minny is in.

Thank you for using the RPI a useful manner.