Iowa's RPI Improved 4-5 Spots with Loss to IU
- Thread starter H8IAST8
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Yeah,the site i look at has Iowa moving from 90 to 86. If you look at the rankings there are several teams that are really close so it wouldn't take much to move either direction.That said it is a little odd we would move after a loss.
The whole season I was expecting the Hawks to be in about this same situation, with the exception of one more win against weaker competition.
However, the loss of MG might be too big to overcome. Not because of missing him on the floor as much as having Marble playing PG without a truly viable B10 option at the two.
This is the first year that Iowa has been able to field a team of B10 worthy players at every position in a while. But after Marble, there is just nobody really B10 worthy at the two. Clemons can hold down the fort for awhile at PG, while Marble plays two, but then you either don't give Marble any rest, or you have Clemons on the floor too long for his abilities.
Almost think it might not be a terrible idea to have Ogelsby play some PG. I mean he passes way better than he shoots.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Correct - that is what it's all about. That is why "wins" over those teams in the 300's also has us down in the 80's. I know this isn't actually true, but it sometimes almost seems as if the RPI doesn't even look at the actual outcome of the games.
Iowa could probably also beat Nebraska at home, and drop, or at best, not go up at all. Safe to say it has to win the last two, and make some noise in the BTT to even have a remote shot at an invite to the big dance.
Rlesterfan
Well-Known Member
Exactly, and this is why the RPI is so flawed. It is more about who you scheduled then how you played.
If Iowa would have lost by 50 points last night, we would have moved up the same. Does anybody think a model is good if you can improve by losing by 50 ? Does anybody think when if a team beats a 300+ team by 50 they should lose value in the model ?
It is really not about Iowa, the RPI is flawed. Too much SOS, not enough about the actual performance. It is just this year where Iowa really is screwed by the RPI, which is why you see such a large gap for Iowa and every other performance based metric.
Note : I don't necessarily think Iowa should be 'in' right now, but they are better than the 87th best team in the NCAA.
Sorry, it was a weak attempt at sarcasm.
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
Correct. We still have to win 3-4 in a row. Most likely 4.
ssckelley
Well-Known Member
Iowa will not drop if they beat Nebraska at home, Nebraska sits just outside the top 100 (104). The RPI still gives a little credit for beating teams in the top 150, so Iowa would probably move 2/3 spots.
You are right about those +300 RPI teams Iowa beat in the non conference, those games are killing the SOS. In the future Iowa needs to do a better job scheduling teams that will be ~150 for home OOC and top 100 if they play anyone on the road. You might be able to get a way with playing 1 team with an RPI of above 300 (first game of the year, warm up game) but not 5 of them (Texas PA, Texas A&M CC, Howard, South Carolina St, and Coppin State). If you are going to play low major schools then at least get their best (like Gardner Webb), otherwise stick to the mid majors.
SteveGarvey
Well-Known Member
The % chance of us winning 3 in a row are:
vs. Illinois-50%-They have more talent but it's at CHA.
vs. Nebraska-60%-sorry, can't go any higher than that since they seem to have our number.
vs. first round in BTT, probably vs. Purdue in the 8/9 game-50%.
I'm not sure what the overall % likelihood of us winning all three are but I'd guess it's somewhere around 20%. And then that might not be good enough to get into the dance. We'd probably have to beat Indiana in the 4th game which lowers the chances of pulling off all these games in a row to about 5%.
But let's just beat Illinois and keep the hope alive.
H8IAST8
Well-Known Member
The REAL Probablility is 61.7 % x 74.6% = 46% Chance to win the next 2 games
Illinois 61.7% chance RealTimeRPI.com GAMER - Game Scouting Report and Predictions: Men's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet
Nebraska 74.6% RealTimeRPI.com GAMER - Game Scouting Report and Predictions: Men's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet
Illinois 61.7% chance RealTimeRPI.com GAMER - Game Scouting Report and Predictions: Men's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet
Nebraska 74.6% RealTimeRPI.com GAMER - Game Scouting Report and Predictions: Men's College Basketball Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Ratings - A leading sports ratings and resources community on the Internet
mrolympia
Well-Known Member
agreed, Basabe earned his way back into the starting 5 with his energy. With May's play these last few games he deserves the same thing.
SteveGarvey
Well-Known Member
Well they would know more than me. That's for sure.
DunderMifflinHk
Well-Known Member
If we win the next two we are pretty much guaranteed a 7th in the tournament. Possibly a 6th seed if Minnesota wins out, or if Illinois, Iowa, and Minnesota all finish 9-9. The only way we get an 8th or 9th seed is if we lose one or two of the last games.