Why Iowa WILL win the Big Ten

SpiderRico

Well-Known Member
In response to Homer's Negative Nancy post, I figured I'd post my own as to why Iowa WILL win the Big 10.

1. We are the deepest team in the league. In an 18 game grind, this will pay off big time come mid-late Feb when everyone's legs are gone and everyone else is sucking wind
2. With the exception of MSU, the toughest games remaining are all at home.
3. We have shown a great knack so far of dispatching with the middle-to-lower tier teams in the league. While everyone else is struggling with NW, we blow them out by 52 combined points. While everyone is struggling with Minnesota, we put a 20+pt beat down on them. Nebraska has been scaring quite a few teams, but we beat them by double digits. Until we are challenged by a team in the 5-12 range in conference, I will continue to assume that we will handle them.
4. Michigan's offense is destined to stall. Their offense, built largely around the 3 point line, can't keep up the torrid pace it's set so far during the conference season. They will have nights when they go 4-20 from 3 and when that happens, they don't have anything to fall back on.
5. MSU's guards will hit the wall. Appling and Harris are playing killer minutes halfway thru the B1G season due to injuries. That will catch up to them as we hit the homestretch of the conference season. MSU goes as those two go and they don't have anything in the way of backups for them. Getting Payne back will help, but Dawson won't be back until the last couple games of the regular season. They will stumble.
 
i agree with most of what you say...however i don't feel michigan will fall off far enough for us to catch them. they have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. just think its too big of a hole to climb out of.

now the conference tourney is another story
 
1 - Agree
2 - Agree
3 - Agree
4 - Likely
5 - Less Likely

Good post!

#5 is a reach, for sure. I was looking for some way, any way, to show a weakness for MSU and couldn't. The best I could come up with was what I put down. While it is, technically true, that Appling and Harris are playing sky high minutes for only being halfway thru the conference, that team is so tough I don't know that they'll falter. But I'll hold out hope until we're mathematically eliminated.
 
#5 is a reach, for sure. I was looking for some way, any way, to show a weakness for MSU and couldn't. The best I could come up with was what I put down. While it is, technically true, that Appling and Harris are playing sky high minutes for only being halfway thru the conference, that team is so tough I don't know that they'll falter. But I'll hold out hope until we're mathematically eliminated.

I understand completely. I still think we will finish 9-1 down the stretch...largely because of reasons 1 to 3 on your list. Unfortunately, I'm sticking with my signature of 14-4 and 2nd place.

Now in an effort to lend an assist to your analysis...Harris and Appling have a history of injuries. Appling is playing hurt now. Tired legs/bodies are more prone to injury. Harris scored over 20 in the 3 games leading up to the Iowa game and then scored 9 in a 45 minute game...leveling off a bit.

Michigan should cool off sooner rather than later. It could be this weekend against Indiana. What happens if Stauskas has to miss 2 or 3 games with a minor injury.

A lot can happen in the 2nd half of the season.
 
I understand completely. I still think we will finish 9-1 down the stretch...largely because of reasons 1 to 3 on your list. Unfortunately, I'm sticking with my signature of 14-4 and 2nd place.

Now in an effort to lend an assist to your analysis...Harris and Appling have a history of injuries. Appling is playing hurt now. Tired legs/bodies are more prone to injury. Harris scored over 20 in the 3 games leading up to the Iowa game and then scored 9 in a 45 minute game...leveling off a bit.

Michigan should cool off sooner rather than later. It could be this weekend against Indiana. What happens if Stauskas has to miss 2 or 3 games with a minor injury.

A lot can happen in the 2nd half of the season.

The other side of that MSU coin is that they will be getting a fresh Adrien Payne back at some point which could mitigate any Appling or Harris injury. Payne raises the level of the true believers faster than the archaic scream juice of the first bloods running as a pack through the burnlands on spires of lazer cords.
 
I think Michigan State is the deepest team in the league and it showed on Tuesday. Down 2 very good starters, another with a bad wrist, win on the road against a good team. That is some quality depth right there.
 

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