Honestly depends if somehow a Big Ten team gets picked for the CFP, then for the New Year's tier of bowls. If the Big Ten keeps beating each other, we could really slip quite a ways. If OSU, PSU, MSU or MU win out, that would move us up because they will have already been picked. Things worked out "perfectly" last year and we got into a much better bowl than we deserved and got a much better opponent than we could handle.
I realize I didn't answer your question, but it's my reason for not being able to give you even an educated guess.