What's the ceiling for Iowa football?

NCHawker

NCHawker

Well-Known Member
An outsider would probably say that Iowa will never consistently win more than 8 games per year...that is sea level. Some would say that's pretty respectable - 8 wins.

What is the highest sea level Iowa will see in the next 20 years?
 
9-10 wins consistently. Not counting bowl games. It's tough to get above that. Really tough. But if you can get 9-10 games year after year, eventually you will pop and have a year when you are in the playoffs.
That's the goal, or should be.
 
The Iowa ceiling is what Wisconsin is doing now, but the coaching and talent is on a different level. The AD in Madison is far superior to the one in IC and has a real, winning, system in place. Kirk is comfy in his spot and has no real reason to get any better. Dude gets paid bank to have one great year every 7.

This isn’t the Little 8 for Nebraska in the 90s where we can play “no one” during the season (although the B1G has been nationally worthless outside tOSU since the 90s) and hope that the paper votes us high enough to get into the “national championship” game.
 
I could see approximately 2002-04 levels with Top 10 finishes, maybe top 15. If the stars align, playoff and a shot at reaching the title game once in a blue moon.

Don't see us ever being a consistent national title contender, though. Just too hard for Iowa to get the quantities of talent needed for a football team to regularly be at that level. The little guys just aren't gonna be able to hang with the Ohio State, FSU and Bama's of the world on the recruiting trails. I don't like it, but I've come to accept that there are the haves and the have nots in college sports. Doesn't mean Iowa can't be better than 7-5, though. Ditto for other "little guys" like Minnesota, Purdue, etc. etc. Not just an Iowa thing.

As mentioned, Wisconsin is a pretty good model, the way I see it. Nothing wrong with that, IMO.
 
I’d like to say back and forth with Wisconsin but if I’m being realistic I’d say 2nd place in the west and once in a blue moon beating them out in a down year. They have an AD who cares about sports and knows football, and they are better “developers” than Ferentz & Ferentz. Wisconsin has the lowest recruiting budget in the B1G by far, they are usually at or behind Iowa’s recruiting rankings, but they eat our lunch.

That, folks, is the difference between having an AD with expectations and accountability, and a mental defective who most likely couldn’t tell you how many timeouts each team gets.

Iowa could be where Wisconsin is, but we won’t be. The ceiling is 6.5 wins average, same as it always has been unless someone can give a compelling reason why not.
 
Fryowa said:
I’d like to say back and forth with Wisconsin but if I’m being realistic I’d say 2nd place in the west and once in a blue moon beating them out in a down year. They have an AD who cares about sports and knows football, and they are better “developers” than Ferentz & Ferentz. Wisconsin has the lowest recruiting budget in the B1G by far, they are usually at or behind Iowa’s recruiting rankings, but they eat our lunch.

That, folks, is the difference between having an AD with expectations and accountability, and a mental defective who most likely couldn’t tell you how many timeouts each team gets.

Iowa could be where Wisconsin is, but we won’t be. The ceiling is 6.5 wins average, same as it always has been unless someone can give a compelling reason why not.
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Alvarez is 72. No way he has more than 10 years left. I would guess 3 to 5. If Alvarez is the difference between Wisconsin and Iowa then how could Wisconsin ever replace the legend. Wisconsin's run in the sun is almost over. Someone will need to step up to dethrone them. I am hoping Iowa can edge out Nebraska (assuming Frost era is successful) for the head seat at the table when the time is right.
 
The ceiling for a single season is pretty obviously the playoffs at the bare minimum because of the way they are structured. 13-0 and you’re in. We were one flagrant targeting call away. That said, I can’t reasonably see anything beyond that until Ferentz shows that he can still succeed in high-level bowl prep.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
The ceiling for a single season is pretty obviously the playoffs at the bare minimum because of the way they are structured. 13-0 and you’re in. We were one flagrant targeting call away. That said, I can’t reasonably see anything beyond that until Ferentz shows that he can still succeed in high-level bowl prep.
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I think he meant consistently, however you do bring up a very good point. That Rose bowl was a joke.
We didn't even look like we belonged on the same level as them, so it was probably better we didn't make any sort of playoff. We not only have to make it to good bowls, we have to win them.
 
Adam said:
Alvarez is 72. No way he has more than 10 years left. I would guess 3 to 5. If Alvarez is the difference between Wisconsin and Iowa then how could Wisconsin ever replace the legend. Wisconsin's run in the sun is almost over. Someone will need to step up to dethrone them. I am hoping Iowa can edge out Nebraska (assuming Frost era is successful) for the head seat at the table when the time is right.
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You can bet Alvarez will be part of the search for his replacement. He was a great AD and will finish strong making sure they find the right guy. IMHO, Alvarez was the best of Hayden's assistants. (Which is saying something). Snyder, Stoops, Ferentz, etc...quite a lineage. He also had great support from the Admin in Madison...something that hasn't always been the case in Iowa City.
 
4thngoal said:
I think he meant consistently, however you do bring up a very good point. That Rose bowl was a joke.
We didn't even look like we belonged on the same level as them, so it was probably better we didn't make any sort of playoff. We not only have to make it to good bowls, we have to win them.
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Agreed, Michigan State played terribly too. More generally 9-10 regular season wins is attainable given a better AD.
 
SheldonHawk12 said:
The Iowa ceiling is what Wisconsin is doing now, but the coaching and talent is on a different level. The AD in Madison is far superior to the one in IC and has a real, winning, system in place. Kirk is comfy in his spot and has no real reason to get any better. Dude gets paid bank to have one great year every 7.

This isn’t the Little 8 for Nebraska in the 90s where we can play “no one” during the season (although the B1G has been nationally worthless outside tOSU since the 90s) and hope that the paper votes us high eback when.Now what is he??Doeswant
SheldonHawk12 said:
The Iowa ceiling is what Wisconsin is doing now, but the coaching and talent is on a different level. The AD in Madison is far superior to the one in IC and has a real, winning, system in place. Kirk is comfy in his spot and has no real reason to get any better. Dude gets paid bank to have one great year every 7.

This isn’t the Little 8 for Nebraska in the 90s where we can play “no one” during the season (although the B1G has been nationally worthless outside tOSU since the 90s) and hope that the paper votes us high enough to get into the “national championship” game.
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Agree.Agree..Funny did he not call someone "Fat Cat" waay baack when huh?
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Iowa starts with some disadvantages....a small in-state population, another in-state power 5 school to contend with recruiting, and a long distance from most of the recruiting hotbeds. It's actually sort of amazing what Iowa has done when you compare them to schools like minnesota and Illinois.

That being said Iowa still gets outrecruited by nebraska and hasn't developed players as well as Wisconsin. Both of those things should be preventable.

Over the last 10 years Wisconsin has won 101 games. They average almost exactly 10 wins a year. If you expand that to 15 or 20 years they are short of 10 wins a year. My point is 10 wins a year is barely sustainable....but I guess that would be Iowas ceiling.
 
Fryowa said:
A better AD and a head coach other than Brian Ferentz. If that guy stays, hello 1973.
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Lofty dreams there. Pretty sure Ferentz and Barta worked out a deal with the U of I hospital as part of that last contract extension. They’re working on research to keep him on a ventilator so that he can live forever and keep Brian as the head coach no matter how bad it gets.

Also, a moment of silence for that ‘73 team. They couldn’t even manage to score a single point on Illinois, and Indiana won two more games than them.
 
mopkins said:
Iowa starts with some disadvantages....a small in-state population, another in-state power 5 school to contend with recruiting, and a long distance from most of the recruiting hotbeds. It's actually sort of amazing what Iowa has done when you compare them to schools like minnesota and Illinois.

That being said Iowa still gets outrecruited by nebraska and hasn't developed players as well as Wisconsin. Both of those things should be preventable.

Over the last 10 years Wisconsin has won 101 games. They average almost exactly 10 wins a year. If you expand that to 15 or 20 years they are short of 10 wins a year. My point is 10 wins a year is barely sustainable....but I guess that would be Iowas ceiling.
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We won’t have that other power 5 issue forever.
 
Agree that the ceiling of 10 wins a season (10-3 avg) should be the expectation. That would equate to a Top 20 school. Expectation for 1-2 Big Ten Championships every decade and/or National Playoff. That SHOULD be the expectation. Reality might be closet to 9-4 avg. Still a step up and close to top 20 program.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
Lofty dreams there. Pretty sure Ferentz and Barta worked out a deal with the U of I hospital as part of that last contract extension. They’re working on research to keep him on a ventilator so that he can live forever and keep Brian as the head coach no matter how bad it gets.

Also, a moment of silence for that ‘73 team. They couldn’t even manage to score a single point on Illinois, and Indiana won two more games than them.
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Our head coach gets BONUS at 7 WINS....OUCH???? Some say OY...
 
So, help me understand.... what exactly is it that Alvarez does or does not do that is remarkably different than what what Barta does or does not do. My theory is that he has and nurtures a covert and highly effective recruiting apparatus (like most top programs). But that does not explain it...Iowa's recruiting is pretty much on par with Wisconsin's - so skip that.






Also...should have been clear...

I used the terms sea level and ceiling...I guess I meant to use them interchangeably... Can we expect Iowa to raise that consistent average # of wins? and how high would it get.
 
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