JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
It has been an interesting weekend of reading columns, message board posts and talking with some Hawkeye fans related to the Iowa basketball situation. That being, the majority of writers and fans feels that Lickliter is done at Iowa.
Coralville based radio station KCJJ really got the ball rolling even faster downhill on Thursday when it posted on its facebook page that sources were telling them Lickliter would be done after this season, and that Iowa would cite health concerns (did I get that right, Cpt Steve?)
That followed a morning of out of control speculation that Lickliter was done, based off several message board posts around the web.
Many of those that are paid to give their opinions (Mike Hlas, Sean Keeler, etc) have written at least one item or several where they believe it’s time for a change. I have written and said that, too. If others haven’t written that, they have written that they believe there will be a change.
I spent some time today playing devil’s advocate with myself. Sort of a boring game, but since I was home alone what else did I have to do?
I asked myself the question: What if Gary Barta doesn’t replace Todd Lickliter, and Lickliter comes back for a fourth season?
Here are the areas of impact that I considered:
Season ticket purchases and walk up support
2010-2011 Expectations
Impact on 2010 recruiting class making it in
Impact on current roster being here to start next season
Pressure on Gary Barta going forward
Economics (a good write up with links from Justin VanLaere today)
Now, I’ll go a little deeper into these areas.
Season ticket purchases and walk up support: Iowa averaged 9,550 fans per home game this year in paid attendance. Now, I don’t know if the ’students get in free’ promotion counts towards that number, and there were reduced ticket offerings here or there along the way. This was the first year in the history of Carver Hawkeye Arena where Iowa averaged less than 10,000 fans per game. There were just 2,521 fans in the arena for the Prairie View A&M game on January 12th. Actual attendance numbers for the season were around 5,000 per game. Iowa ranked in the Top 25 in attendance nationally from the late 1970’s through 2006. That’s a long time. That is an amazing fanbase, but that fanbase has spoken loud and clear. If Lickliter were to return, I think it’s nearly a guarantee that we would see fewer fans in the stands next year than we did this year, which was an historic low.
2010-2011 Expectations: This question depends on whom you speak with, and you have to make some assumptions. To be optimistic, you assume that every player that is currently on the team with eligibility for next year will return. Then you assume that the incoming freshmen will live up to their billing, which means being able to make some contributions right away. Even if these things happened, Michigan State is still Michigan State. Wisconsin is still Wisconsin. Illinois should be better, and they were a bubble team. Indiana should be better. Northwestern, who comes off their first 20 win season in school history, will return Kevin Coble and they might make their first NCAA tournament ever. Michigan and Ohio State will probably be worse, Purdue has some things in the air with regards to Johnson & Moore’s decisions on turning pro, and just how quickly Robbie Hummel can return. In short, it’s not like the league is going back to where it was for the better part of the first decade of this century. I think Iowa would win more than 10 games with next year’s team. Possibly even 15, flirting with a .500 record, but likely a finish no better than seventh (which seems real optimistic) and another year without an NCAA tournament appearance, another selection Sunday where they are not invited, making it 10 of 13 years not in the dance, when the previous 21 years prior to the start of the Steve Alford era, Iowa went to the dance 16 out of 21 times. At best, and this is probably a stretch, NIT?
Impact on 2010 recruiting class making it in: If Lickliter were retained, I would expect every one of the Class of 2010 to come to Iowa.
Impact on current roster being here to start next season: If Lickliter were retained, I would not expect for all of the players on the current roster to be at Iowa at the start of the next season. As for who that might be, I don’t think any of us knows. I believe Aaron Fuller would be a real possibility with regards to leaving, and Iowa cannot afford to have it’s best player leave the program for the fourth year in a row (Tyler Smith shortly after Lick was hired, Tony Freeman, Jake Kelly).
Pressure on Gary Barta going forward: If Lickliter were retained, I believe there would be a significant outcry from the fanbase. It probably wouldn’t be too fun reading his emails right about then, as a good number of the fans have already started to look towards the future without Todd Lickliter, many of those fans that have not been coming to Carver Hawkeye Arena during the Lickliter era. We had nearly 250,000 page views on Thursday, and many people said it was the most excited they have been about Iowa basketball in some time. Now, I am not saying Barta’s bosses would put pressure on him, just that if he would bring Lickliter back, there would be uncomfortable times for him as he made his way around the state this spring on the I-Club circuit. However, that comes with being an Athletics Director; not always making the most popular decisions. But the divide between the fans and the basketball program would likely widen, which would cause a decent number of fans to put Barta in their cross hairs, like it or not.
Economics: If Lickliter were retained, I believe there would be an impact with regards to donations to the basketball program beyond what they are already experiencing. I have reason to believe Barta has been making some ‘cash calls’ to donors over the past week if not longer. I have heard some donors have told him they have nothing to give him on this front, while others have chipped in some coin. Barta is still in a fundraising mode with regards to the Carver Hawkeye Arena renovation project, too.
All this being said, and these are just my opinions, there aren’t too many resounding positives here. Now, let’s apply the same criteria to the hypothetical where Lickliter is replaced.
Season ticket purchases and walk up support: This is slippery, because a lot of this would depend on whom Barta hires. If he were somehow able to pull off a home run hire, like say Bruce Pearl, then I believe sold attendance would shoot up by 1000-2000 per game. Actual attendance would likely shoot up 3000 or more per game. That’s more hot dogs, ice cream cones, parking, popcorn, etc. A lot more, which means more money.
2010-2011 Expectations: Another slippery topic, since we are looking at this without any understanding of the style of play. However, I really believe Barta needs to make a hire that employs an up tempo style of play…for real this time. I feel like it’s my birthright as an Iowa fan to watch up tempo basketball. I have talked with people older than I, folks that cut their teeth on the Ralph Miller days and the team that averaged more than 100 points per game for an entire Big Ten season, and they feel the same. They have an extra layer of that expectation that I don’t have, since I was born just after the Six Pack season. If Barta were to hire an uptempo coach, depending on who that is, I think the team probably wins the same amount of games as I outlined above. If it were Pearl, I’d raise my ceiling to maybe 17 or 18. Yes, I am saying that no matter what happens for next year, short of Bruce Pearl being on Iowa’s bench, I think the outcomes will be similar. But in the Lickliter retained scenario, I am of the opinion we would just be delaying the inevitable and in the Lickliter replaced scenario we would be on the road that is going to lead to…well, somewhere other than we are now, which is the lowest point in the history of Iowa basketball. As Red said in the movie the Shawshank Redemption, it’s either get busy livin’ or get busy dyin’ time.
Impact on 2010 recruiting class making it in: If Lickliter were not retained, the odds of the entire recruiting class making it in might be around 50/50, which is speculation, but make no mistake about it; right now these kids are big fans of Lickliter.
Impact on current roster being here to start next season: If Lickliter were not retained, there is a chance Iowa could lose a player or two. I think the chances of that would be much lower than if he were retained, and I think everyone would be back, depending on whom they hired to replace Todd. Were it Pearl, I think everyone would be back (picking up any Pearls of wisdom yet?).
Pressure on Gary Barta going forward: In my opinion, if Barta makes a change, he has some breathing room from the fanbase. However, the slate would not be wiped entirely clean since he hired the man who has been at the helm of the worst three year run in the history of Iowa basketball. If his 2nd basketball coaching hire didn’t work out, I suspect he wouldn’t get a crack at a third…few AD’s get that chance, just to be fair.
Economics: Were Lickliter not retained, I have to believe that the overall economic picture surrounding the program would improve. Just by how much would depend on just whom Barta would bring in. Were that person Bruce Pearl, I believe we would be talking millions of dollars worth of improvement.
PEARL: It would need to improve by that much, because Bruce would come at a steep price. You would have whatever negotiated buyout Barta and Lickliter would have agreed to, the matter of Pearl’s Tennessee buyout (unless he has some kind of Iowa clause in his contract), then the matter of paying Pearl and that would probably cost closer to $3 million than $2 million. The economic impact in the coffers at Carver Hawkeye could hopefully be wash…HOWEVER…given that I think the economic situation next year could be worse than it is now if Lickliter were retained, a break even where you are right now with Pearl at the helm makes business sense, especially since you would be on the path to moving forward in a positive and winning way…on a road to a bit of prosperity, in my opinion.
The reason I think Pearl would be a home run hire for Barta is that the Big Ten is ripe for the picking with regards to the style of play we see night in and night out. Michigan State can get up and down with you year in and year out, but Purdue is sitting on a once in a program’s history trio right now that at worst will be done after next year. I don’t think Pearl would run the table, but much like it was in 1986 when Tom Davis came to Iowa, the league doesn’t have anything in it that resembles the system Pearl employs, which is much like the system his mentor Davis employed with success at Iowa…a place where you are not going to have Top 10 recruiting classes, and a place where I believe you need to be smarter and work harder to succeed than most of your Big Ten brethren. However, no matter how much I love the guy, it would be a major pull to get him to leave Tennessee for Iowa. Not without hope, however
That’s enough on that topic for now, because I am not comfortable going into ‘my list’ whilst Lickliter is still Iowa’s head coach. It’s still no fun writing about this stuff, because I believe a decent man is probably going to lose his job. Yes, I realize he is a millionaire and will leave Iowa with a pot of gold buyout. I am not going to shed tears for him, but still, it’s just not fun business.
We’ll continue to be on the watch for you with the latest developments. If you have not signed up for our Twitter account, it’s twitter.com/hawkeyenation. If anything breaks and I am away from a computer, twitter will be where things happen first.
Coralville based radio station KCJJ really got the ball rolling even faster downhill on Thursday when it posted on its facebook page that sources were telling them Lickliter would be done after this season, and that Iowa would cite health concerns (did I get that right, Cpt Steve?)
That followed a morning of out of control speculation that Lickliter was done, based off several message board posts around the web.
Many of those that are paid to give their opinions (Mike Hlas, Sean Keeler, etc) have written at least one item or several where they believe it’s time for a change. I have written and said that, too. If others haven’t written that, they have written that they believe there will be a change.
I spent some time today playing devil’s advocate with myself. Sort of a boring game, but since I was home alone what else did I have to do?
I asked myself the question: What if Gary Barta doesn’t replace Todd Lickliter, and Lickliter comes back for a fourth season?
Here are the areas of impact that I considered:
Season ticket purchases and walk up support
2010-2011 Expectations
Impact on 2010 recruiting class making it in
Impact on current roster being here to start next season
Pressure on Gary Barta going forward
Economics (a good write up with links from Justin VanLaere today)
Now, I’ll go a little deeper into these areas.
Season ticket purchases and walk up support: Iowa averaged 9,550 fans per home game this year in paid attendance. Now, I don’t know if the ’students get in free’ promotion counts towards that number, and there were reduced ticket offerings here or there along the way. This was the first year in the history of Carver Hawkeye Arena where Iowa averaged less than 10,000 fans per game. There were just 2,521 fans in the arena for the Prairie View A&M game on January 12th. Actual attendance numbers for the season were around 5,000 per game. Iowa ranked in the Top 25 in attendance nationally from the late 1970’s through 2006. That’s a long time. That is an amazing fanbase, but that fanbase has spoken loud and clear. If Lickliter were to return, I think it’s nearly a guarantee that we would see fewer fans in the stands next year than we did this year, which was an historic low.
2010-2011 Expectations: This question depends on whom you speak with, and you have to make some assumptions. To be optimistic, you assume that every player that is currently on the team with eligibility for next year will return. Then you assume that the incoming freshmen will live up to their billing, which means being able to make some contributions right away. Even if these things happened, Michigan State is still Michigan State. Wisconsin is still Wisconsin. Illinois should be better, and they were a bubble team. Indiana should be better. Northwestern, who comes off their first 20 win season in school history, will return Kevin Coble and they might make their first NCAA tournament ever. Michigan and Ohio State will probably be worse, Purdue has some things in the air with regards to Johnson & Moore’s decisions on turning pro, and just how quickly Robbie Hummel can return. In short, it’s not like the league is going back to where it was for the better part of the first decade of this century. I think Iowa would win more than 10 games with next year’s team. Possibly even 15, flirting with a .500 record, but likely a finish no better than seventh (which seems real optimistic) and another year without an NCAA tournament appearance, another selection Sunday where they are not invited, making it 10 of 13 years not in the dance, when the previous 21 years prior to the start of the Steve Alford era, Iowa went to the dance 16 out of 21 times. At best, and this is probably a stretch, NIT?
Impact on 2010 recruiting class making it in: If Lickliter were retained, I would expect every one of the Class of 2010 to come to Iowa.
Impact on current roster being here to start next season: If Lickliter were retained, I would not expect for all of the players on the current roster to be at Iowa at the start of the next season. As for who that might be, I don’t think any of us knows. I believe Aaron Fuller would be a real possibility with regards to leaving, and Iowa cannot afford to have it’s best player leave the program for the fourth year in a row (Tyler Smith shortly after Lick was hired, Tony Freeman, Jake Kelly).
Pressure on Gary Barta going forward: If Lickliter were retained, I believe there would be a significant outcry from the fanbase. It probably wouldn’t be too fun reading his emails right about then, as a good number of the fans have already started to look towards the future without Todd Lickliter, many of those fans that have not been coming to Carver Hawkeye Arena during the Lickliter era. We had nearly 250,000 page views on Thursday, and many people said it was the most excited they have been about Iowa basketball in some time. Now, I am not saying Barta’s bosses would put pressure on him, just that if he would bring Lickliter back, there would be uncomfortable times for him as he made his way around the state this spring on the I-Club circuit. However, that comes with being an Athletics Director; not always making the most popular decisions. But the divide between the fans and the basketball program would likely widen, which would cause a decent number of fans to put Barta in their cross hairs, like it or not.
Economics: If Lickliter were retained, I believe there would be an impact with regards to donations to the basketball program beyond what they are already experiencing. I have reason to believe Barta has been making some ‘cash calls’ to donors over the past week if not longer. I have heard some donors have told him they have nothing to give him on this front, while others have chipped in some coin. Barta is still in a fundraising mode with regards to the Carver Hawkeye Arena renovation project, too.
All this being said, and these are just my opinions, there aren’t too many resounding positives here. Now, let’s apply the same criteria to the hypothetical where Lickliter is replaced.
Season ticket purchases and walk up support: This is slippery, because a lot of this would depend on whom Barta hires. If he were somehow able to pull off a home run hire, like say Bruce Pearl, then I believe sold attendance would shoot up by 1000-2000 per game. Actual attendance would likely shoot up 3000 or more per game. That’s more hot dogs, ice cream cones, parking, popcorn, etc. A lot more, which means more money.
2010-2011 Expectations: Another slippery topic, since we are looking at this without any understanding of the style of play. However, I really believe Barta needs to make a hire that employs an up tempo style of play…for real this time. I feel like it’s my birthright as an Iowa fan to watch up tempo basketball. I have talked with people older than I, folks that cut their teeth on the Ralph Miller days and the team that averaged more than 100 points per game for an entire Big Ten season, and they feel the same. They have an extra layer of that expectation that I don’t have, since I was born just after the Six Pack season. If Barta were to hire an uptempo coach, depending on who that is, I think the team probably wins the same amount of games as I outlined above. If it were Pearl, I’d raise my ceiling to maybe 17 or 18. Yes, I am saying that no matter what happens for next year, short of Bruce Pearl being on Iowa’s bench, I think the outcomes will be similar. But in the Lickliter retained scenario, I am of the opinion we would just be delaying the inevitable and in the Lickliter replaced scenario we would be on the road that is going to lead to…well, somewhere other than we are now, which is the lowest point in the history of Iowa basketball. As Red said in the movie the Shawshank Redemption, it’s either get busy livin’ or get busy dyin’ time.
Impact on 2010 recruiting class making it in: If Lickliter were not retained, the odds of the entire recruiting class making it in might be around 50/50, which is speculation, but make no mistake about it; right now these kids are big fans of Lickliter.
Impact on current roster being here to start next season: If Lickliter were not retained, there is a chance Iowa could lose a player or two. I think the chances of that would be much lower than if he were retained, and I think everyone would be back, depending on whom they hired to replace Todd. Were it Pearl, I think everyone would be back (picking up any Pearls of wisdom yet?).
Pressure on Gary Barta going forward: In my opinion, if Barta makes a change, he has some breathing room from the fanbase. However, the slate would not be wiped entirely clean since he hired the man who has been at the helm of the worst three year run in the history of Iowa basketball. If his 2nd basketball coaching hire didn’t work out, I suspect he wouldn’t get a crack at a third…few AD’s get that chance, just to be fair.
Economics: Were Lickliter not retained, I have to believe that the overall economic picture surrounding the program would improve. Just by how much would depend on just whom Barta would bring in. Were that person Bruce Pearl, I believe we would be talking millions of dollars worth of improvement.
PEARL: It would need to improve by that much, because Bruce would come at a steep price. You would have whatever negotiated buyout Barta and Lickliter would have agreed to, the matter of Pearl’s Tennessee buyout (unless he has some kind of Iowa clause in his contract), then the matter of paying Pearl and that would probably cost closer to $3 million than $2 million. The economic impact in the coffers at Carver Hawkeye could hopefully be wash…HOWEVER…given that I think the economic situation next year could be worse than it is now if Lickliter were retained, a break even where you are right now with Pearl at the helm makes business sense, especially since you would be on the path to moving forward in a positive and winning way…on a road to a bit of prosperity, in my opinion.
The reason I think Pearl would be a home run hire for Barta is that the Big Ten is ripe for the picking with regards to the style of play we see night in and night out. Michigan State can get up and down with you year in and year out, but Purdue is sitting on a once in a program’s history trio right now that at worst will be done after next year. I don’t think Pearl would run the table, but much like it was in 1986 when Tom Davis came to Iowa, the league doesn’t have anything in it that resembles the system Pearl employs, which is much like the system his mentor Davis employed with success at Iowa…a place where you are not going to have Top 10 recruiting classes, and a place where I believe you need to be smarter and work harder to succeed than most of your Big Ten brethren. However, no matter how much I love the guy, it would be a major pull to get him to leave Tennessee for Iowa. Not without hope, however
That’s enough on that topic for now, because I am not comfortable going into ‘my list’ whilst Lickliter is still Iowa’s head coach. It’s still no fun writing about this stuff, because I believe a decent man is probably going to lose his job. Yes, I realize he is a millionaire and will leave Iowa with a pot of gold buyout. I am not going to shed tears for him, but still, it’s just not fun business.
We’ll continue to be on the watch for you with the latest developments. If you have not signed up for our Twitter account, it’s twitter.com/hawkeyenation. If anything breaks and I am away from a computer, twitter will be where things happen first.
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