Thoughts on Biels decision

[Section136]

Would like to everybody's thoughts on Bielema's end of game strategy on Saturday night against MSU. They came back from 14 down to tie the game with about 1:30 left and he decides to be super aggressive and try and get the ball back by calling timeouts on defense.

It ends up working against him as MSU advances the ball past midfield and completes the Hail Mary at the end. If it would have been Iowa, KF would have let MSU run the clock out and gone to OT with all the momentum they just created.

What strategy do you like more?

 

[99topdawg]

Just ask the Wisconsin fans:

Scout.com: Wisconsin's second time-out (3rd and 7)

Bielema pulled a Zook plain and simple.

 

[theboat]

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/rivalry-forum/35755-bielema-you-idiot.html

I think it was the definitely a stupid move. Not because he lost on the hail mary, that was a fluke, but because he gave MSU a chance to get into reasonable FG range to take a lead without a whole lot to gain.

He was betting $100 with a chance to win $5.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

Not smart. His reasoning was he thought they had a good chance of returning the punt for a td or blocking the punt and returning it. Seriously, what are the odds of that happening? The last timeout on 3rd and 8 with 30 seconds left was insane. Let it go and go to OT.

 

[BlackHawk]

http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/rivalry-forum/35755-bielema-you-idiot.html

I think it was the definitely a stupid move. Not because he lost on the hail mary, that was a fluke, but because he gave MSU a chance to get into reasonable FG range to take a lead without a whole lot to gain.

He was betting $100 with a chance to win $5.

Actually, I'd say he bet straight up on 10:1 odds.

 

[HawkI101]

Actually, I'd say he bet straight up on 10:1 odds.

In hind sight it was a bad decision, but if the official would have called the false start on that 3rd and 7 play we might be saying it was a great decision, then then people would be saying, wish our coach was that aggressive.

That offensive lineman was a good 1.5 seconds ahead of the snap and it wasn't called. That was one of the easiest false starts to call and it wasn't. 3 and 7 goes to 3rd and 12, and Wisconsin gets the ball back with a min left.

 

[burky247]

I'm all for playing for the win, especially when you are on the road. But that was too big of a gamble to take considering the circumstances. Bielema is an aggressive coach. Sometimes you have to deal with the consequences of being that aggressive. The same way that sometimes we have to deal with the consequences of Ferentz being so conservative.

 

[Sirhouseman]

I think it was too aggressive. I've been one to question KF's conservativeness from time to time and I know I can't have it both ways, but there was not enough to gain and it cost him. Albeit a fluke.

 

[ICHawk24]

There are consequences to being aggressive, something that a lot of Iowa fans need to understand.

 

[eveningnewsteam]

There's a difference between being aggressive and just stupid. On 3rd and 7, which is very managable for MSU, he should have let it run out. There was only 30 seconds on the clock and Michigan St was ready to go to OT. Even if MSU doesnt pick it up, Wisconsin is gonna get the ball back deep in MSU territory with probably 10-15 seconds left in regulation. He was counting on a punt return for a td or blocking the punt.

 

[hoffahawk]

There are consequences to being aggressive, something that a lot of Iowa fans need to understand.

This, and I would guess somebody will bring it up to KF this week at his presser.

 

[tweeterhawk]

There's a difference between being aggressive and just stupid. On 3rd and 7, which is very managable for MSU, he should have let it run out. There was only 30 seconds on the clock and Michigan St was ready to go to OT. Even if MSU doesnt pick it up, Wisconsin is gonna get the ball back deep in MSU territory with probably 10-15 seconds left in regulation. He was counting on a punt return for a td or blocking the punt.

Agreed. I thought it was a presumptuous move. Perhaps you do that with three minutes left or even two. But with MSU able to move the ball, it just seems you are giving them a chance to put themselves to win by stopping the clock.

 

[EddyP]

There's a difference between being aggressive and just stupid. On 3rd and 7, which is very managable for MSU, he should have let it run out. There was only 30 seconds on the clock and Michigan St was ready to go to OT. Even if MSU doesnt pick it up, Wisconsin is gonna get the ball back deep in MSU territory with probably 10-15 seconds left in regulation. He was counting on a punt return for a td or blocking the punt.

This, and hell Wisky could have fumbled the punt return or gotten a roughing the punter call for that matter. If there was more time on the clock I can see it but 30 seconds?

 

[CP87]

In hind sight it was a bad decision, but if the official would have called the false start on that 3rd and 7 play we might be saying it was a great decision, then then people would be saying, wish our coach was that aggressive.

That offensive lineman was a good 1.5 seconds ahead of the snap and it wasn't called. That was one of the easiest false starts to call and it wasn't. 3 and 7 goes to 3rd and 12, and Wisconsin gets the ball back with a min left.

I was wondering why this was never mentioned, and why they never showed a replay. I thought it was an obvious false start, but I thought maybe I imagined it since the commentators never said a thing.

Still thought the 2nd TO was highly questionable, as was the insertion of Abrederis on D for the last play. Bielema seems like a great coach and I would trust his decision-making a million times more so than my own, but in hindsight it is pretty easy to see that these were mistakes.

I still think Wisconsin is a powerhouse; the Badgers gave MSU so many gifts, and Sparty still needed a Hail Mary to beat them at home; it will be interesting to see how Wisconsin responds.

 

[EddyP]

This, and I would guess somebody will bring it up to KF this week at his presser.

KF still remembers Brodell's fumble on a punt return against NW at home just after he called time out before the half and they go in to score a td.

 

[BlackHawk]

In hind sight it was a bad decision, but if the official would have called the false start on that 3rd and 7 play we might be saying it was a great decision, then then people would be saying, wish our coach was that aggressive.

That offensive lineman was a good 1.5 seconds ahead of the snap and it wasn't called. That was one of the easiest false starts to call and it wasn't. 3 and 7 goes to 3rd and 12, and Wisconsin gets the ball back with a min left.

You are 100% right that there was a blown call. However, the decision should be analyzed as of the time it was made, not based on what happens (or should have happened) afterwards. As of the time it was made it was the wrong call--the odds just don't support the decision.

You are also right, that if it worked, we'd call him "wrong, but incredibly gutsy", but if it doesn't work, and it didn't, we call him "stupid".

 

[MikeyJoe]

People always need to keep in mind when talking about playing for OT - overtime isn't safe either. You only have a 50% chance to win the game when going to OT, and then the single biggest factor once you get there is who wins the coin flip.

So decisions like this aren't just about the risk of losing or giving up a FG or Hail Mary or whatever - as long as Bielema thought the chance of getting the ball back was better than MSU scoring (even if it was 51% vs 49%) he made the right decision.

 

[deanvogs]

There's a difference between being aggressive and just stupid. On 3rd and 7, which is very managable for MSU, he should have let it run out. There was only 30 seconds on the clock and Michigan St was ready to go to OT. Even if MSU doesnt pick it up, Wisconsin is gonna get the ball back deep in MSU territory with probably 10-15 seconds left in regulation. He was counting on a punt return for a td or blocking the punt.

The only difference between aggressive and stupid is results. Aggressive is great if it pays off, and stupid if it doesn't, that is the nature of being aggressive.

If Wisconsin stops Michigan St. on 3rd and 7, then Michigan St. looks stupid for playing aggressive instead of Wisconsin looking stupid. Hindsight is always 20/20....

 

[PJHawk]

I thought at the time there's no way BB should have called the second TO. I'm okay with the first TO after the sack but on 2nd and long but they picked a lot of yards and were getting close to midfield. Considering there was only 30 seconds left WTF he called that second TO is beyond me.

 

[deanvogs]

People always need to keep in mind when talking about playing for OT - overtime isn't safe either. You only have a 50% chance to win the game when going to OT, and then the single biggest factor once you get there is who wins the coin flip.

So decisions like this aren't just about the risk of losing or giving up a FG or Hail Mary or whatever - as long as Bielema thought the chance of getting the ball back was better than MSU scoring (even if it was 51% vs 49%) he made the right decision.

Trying to drive 50+ yards in under 1:30 is very risky also. If the other team has TO, you risk going 3 and out (like Michigan St. nearly did) and giving the other team a chance to move the ball 30 yards for the win after the punt. So if your odds are 30-40% of driving 50+ yds for a FG, then isn't it better to look at your 50/50 odds in OT?

I'm just pointing out that the nonsense of saying you play "not to lose" or don't "play to win". If you play not to lose, by definition you are playing to win. I don't understand why fans say stuff like that. If you take the emotion out of it, then it is all about odds, and maximizing your chance of winning.