No way do I see 6 or 7 losses as a best-case scenario. I don't necessarily see 16-2, either, but 14-4/15-3 is still a reasonable possibility (especially 14-4).
Being generous, the only remaining games we SHOULD lose are MSU, @MSU and @Minnesota. With Payne limited/out, I think the only lock out of those three is @MSU. There's always a chance for a loss against one of the lower-tier teams, but the one I'd be most worried about (Nebraska) isn't on our road slate this year. Penn State hasn't lived up to my expectations this year, and I'm not scared of Purdue at all. Winning in Champaign isn't easy, but that team doesn't scare me much, either. They look pretty similar to most Illinois teams. Indiana is the only other road game I'm worried about; they've got talent.