Things setting up for 2012 ....

H

homerHAWKeye777

Well-Known Member
I anticipate that the Iowa squad will be good and competitive in 2011. However, I'm not entirely expecting world-beaters though.

Not all that long ago, I was envisioning that the 2012 season was setting up to be a pretty tough one for us ... at least insofar that I thought that our O would be very good but I felt that our D would be getting far to hammered personnel-wise.

Some of the factors that led to my "low" expectations concerning the promise of the 2012 season was:

- We'd be losing too much on the OL ... with the losses of Reiff, Zusevics, and Gettis. My fears concerning the OL have been allayed in large part due to the high level of play of James Ferentz and the emergence of MacMillan. Furthermore, it doesn't hurt that Boffeli and Van Sloten have been generating some pretty nice buzz .... and that's in addition to the fact that we've been having good luck when it comes to OL-recruiting.

- I didn't anticipate the early departure of Sash. Furthermore, I had Bernstine pegged to be a 2-year starter for us ... a stance held due to the fact that he seemingly had the starting spot "locked down" prior to his ankle injury. Thus, I had previously envisioned that we'd be taking quite a hit in the secondary in 2012. Anyhow, the injuries to Bernstine and the early departure of Sash have conspired to make the Hawks "take a hit" in the secondary a year early. However, the good news is that the Hawks have a great group of VERY promising young guys (Hyde, Lowery, and Miller ... to name but a few). Now, oddly enough, the secondary appears as though it could be a team strength in 2012.

- Our LB situation looked like it could still be a little exploitable in 2012. I definitely didn't expect for the 2010 LB corps to become a trauma ward. As a result, I thought that the lack of experience of the young LBs would likely lead us to lean more on Bruce Davis and Tyler Nielsen to be starters in 2011. The offshoot of that is that I figured that the 2012 LBs would still be a bit on the inexperienced side. Now, in contrast, given the quality reps that Morris and DiBona have already seen and given the quality of Iowa's LB recruiting over the past 2 years ... I'm inclined to believe that the LBs will likely be a TEAM strength in 2012. Of course, it will certainly be a tough chore to replace Nielsen ... however, I still have a great feeling about our '12 LBs.

- Iowa's DL just keeps on taking "big hits" personnel-wise. Not only do we lose a tremendous and talented trio in Ballard, Clayborn, and Klug after the '10 season ... but then we follow up those departures with the losses of a ton of senior D-linemen after the '11 season. To be precise, Binns, Daniels, Daniel, Nardo, and Forgy are ALL seniors in 2011 ... and each of them are likely going to be on the 2011 depth chart. We're talking the loss of EIGHT quality guys over a 2-year period. That's significant any way you cut it. Unfortunately, I simply don't have enough "solid" information to yet have my fears allayed concerning the DL. That's not to say that I don't like the PROMISE of the group ... however, as we all know, you're just asking to get stung if you're about to bank on "promise/potential."

MY TAKE:

As I see it, the biggest obstacles that Iowa has to potentially having a "special" 2012 season concerns:

1. Our ability to reload on the DL. Fortunately past precedent suggests that we tend to do a great job of developing D-linemen. Furthermore, as I've alluded before, we're not going to be lacking talent on the DL. However, as Iowa fans have come to learn ... experience and discipline are critical when it comes to the success of our DL. Thus, inexperience could lead to the group possibly being a little exploitable.

2. Our ability to fill the void left by McNutt. McNutt is not only a phenomenal talent for us ... he has also been a leader. I do not anticipate that it will be a trivial task to replace him.

3. The X-factor for the Hawk O, in 2012, might just end up being our running game and our TEs. Just a hunch ...
 


You will likely have a second year starter at QB, with Vandenberg, Keenan Davis will still be there at WR, plus it is likely two or more receivers will emerge and we will still be loaded at line- other players who will likely have potential include Donnal, Blythe, and Walsh plus others who are older.

I actually think the D-line will be less of a problem than you are anticipating because I think one of the big adjustments Iowa is likely to make is to rotate more players- both directly because of this season's performance and because their is a lot of depth at that position. As long as Coach K is at Iowa I will not worry about D-line play.
 


homerHAWKeye777 said:
I anticipate that the Iowa squad will be good and competitive in 2011. However, I'm not entirely expecting world-beaters though.

Not all that long ago, I was envisioning that the 2012 season was setting up to be a pretty tough one for us ... at least insofar that I thought that our O would be very good but I felt that our D would be getting far to hammered personnel-wise.

Some of the factors that led to my "low" expectations concerning the promise of the 2012 season was:

- We'd be losing too much on the OL ... with the losses of Reiff, Zusevics, and Gettis. My fears concerning the OL have been allayed in large part due to the high level of play of James Ferentz and the emergence of MacMillan. Furthermore, it doesn't hurt that Boffeli and Van Sloten have been generating some pretty nice buzz .... and that's in addition to the fact that we've been having good luck when it comes to OL-recruiting.

- I didn't anticipate the early departure of Sash. Furthermore, I had Bernstine pegged to be a 2-year starter for us ... a stance held due to the fact that he seemingly had the starting spot "locked down" prior to his ankle injury. Thus, I had previously envisioned that we'd be taking quite a hit in the secondary in 2012. Anyhow, the injuries to Bernstine and the early departure of Sash have conspired to make the Hawks "take a hit" in the secondary a year early. However, the good news is that the Hawks have a great group of VERY promising young guys (Hyde, Lowery, and Miller ... to name but a few). Now, oddly enough, the secondary appears as though it could be a team strength in 2012.

- Our LB situation looked like it could still be a little exploitable in 2012. I definitely didn't expect for the 2010 LB corps to become a trauma ward. As a result, I thought that the lack of experience of the young LBs would likely lead us to lean more on Bruce Davis and Tyler Nielsen to be starters in 2011. The offshoot of that is that I figured that the 2012 LBs would still be a bit on the inexperienced side. Now, in contrast, given the quality reps that Morris and DiBona have already seen and given the quality of Iowa's LB recruiting over the past 2 years ... I'm inclined to believe that the LBs will likely be a TEAM strength in 2012. Of course, it will certainly be a tough chore to replace Nielsen ... however, I still have a great feeling about our '12 LBs.

- Iowa's DL just keeps on taking "big hits" personnel-wise. Not only do we lose a tremendous and talented trio in Ballard, Clayborn, and Klug after the '10 season ... but then we follow up those departures with the losses of a ton of senior D-linemen after the '11 season. To be precise, Binns, Daniels, Daniel, Nardo, and Forgy are ALL seniors in 2011 ... and each of them are likely going to be on the 2011 depth chart. We're talking the loss of EIGHT quality guys over a 2-year period. That's significant any way you cut it. Unfortunately, I simply don't have enough "solid" information to yet have my fears allayed concerning the DL. That's not to say that I don't like the PROMISE of the group ... however, as we all know, you're just asking to get stung if you're about to bank on "promise/potential."

MY TAKE:

As I see it, the biggest obstacles that Iowa has to potentially having a "special" 2012 season concerns:

1. Our ability to reload on the DL. Fortunately past precedent suggests that we tend to do a great job of developing D-linemen. Furthermore, as I've alluded before, we're not going to be lacking talent on the DL. However, as Iowa fans have come to learn ... experience and discipline are critical when it comes to the success of our DL. Thus, inexperience could lead to the group possibly being a little exploitable.

2. Our ability to fill the void left by McNutt. McNutt is not only a phenomenal talent for us ... he has also been a leader. I do not anticipate that it will be a trivial task to replace him.

3. The X-factor for the Hawk O, in 2012, might just end up being our running game and our TEs. Just a hunch ...
Click to expand...

We could be in for a couple of .500 seasons. I think its more likely than not.
 


spudhawk said:
You will likely have a second year starter at QB, with Vandenberg, Keenan Davis will still be there at WR, plus it is likely two or more receivers will emerge and we will still be loaded at line- other players who will likely have potential include Donnal, Blythe, and Walsh plus others who are older.

I actually think the D-line will be less of a problem than you are anticipating because I think one of the big adjustments Iowa is likely to make is to rotate more players- both directly because of this season's performance and because their is a lot of depth at that position. As long as Coach K is at Iowa I will not worry about D-line play.
Click to expand...

spud -

Feel free to correct me, but do you really believe that the Iowa DL was truly gassed due to conditioning and/or lack of rotation?

They had a pretty healthy rotation that involved Daniels, Binns, and Daniel. Furthermore, the D frankly had to put out more "fires" last year given all the turnovers we had in 2009.

My interpretation of the turn of events is that we were terribly exploitable at LB in the latter part of the season ... particularly in coverage. As a result, that demoralized the D because opposing Os could almost always convert on 3rd down by picking an appropriate receiving target.

When you combine that "mental exhaustion" with the emotional undercurrents of the guys knowing that they were no longer fighting for a BCS game ... as terrible as it sounds, my impression is that many of the guys were probably having trouble finding the motivation to go that extra mile.

Lastly, I'm also under the impression that the Hawks didn't have the sort of leader on the squad who was an enforcer-type like Bob, Gallery, King, or Angerer. If we had a leader like one of those guys on the squad ... then maybe the squad wouldn't have seemingly had such a BCS or bust sort of attitude.
 


lightning1 said:
We could be in for a couple of .500 seasons. I think its more likely than not.
Click to expand...

I doubt it. The overall attitude of the squad has been very good. The "attitude issue" that hit the Hawks in 2010 largely concerned how they reacted to unmet expectations. I don't like the reaction ... but I can understand it.

If you look at Iowa's schedule and also consider that the squad won't be contending with such crazy expectations. I think that we'll see some pretty darn good Hawk squads in the coming years.

I could be wrong ... but it's my impression that .500 seasons are becoming much more of a worst-case scenario for our Hawks. And thus ... they're not going to be one of the more likely scenarios.

I see 8+ wins in 2011 and an even better record in 2012.
 


@Homer- all of those could have been factors, but you also clearly had a talent gap between 1-5 and no one (except maybe Daniels) seemed to improve their play from the year before- Iowa was successfully schemed all season- other elite DEs find a way to pressure the QB, this isn't a dig at Clayborn but the staff for not finding ways to adjust to quick passing. Part of the problem being gassed at the end of games was TOP and inability to get off the field on third and especially fourth down. Coaching will always be the wildcard with this defense. Iowa was outstanding at third down defense and pressure in the '08 and '09 versions with many similar players.

If Tarp or Nielsen is healthy the entire season, than maybe the defense performs better, but if Iowa tursts Hyde and Prater more on third downs (especially with Senior Safties) the D-line more than likely has an extra second or two to get pressure on the QB. Too much cushion and too many times playing contain instead of attacking with our line.
 


spudhawk said:
@Homer- all of those could have been factors, but you also clearly had a talent gap between 1-5 and no one (except maybe Daniels) seemed to improve their play from the year before- Iowa was successfully schemed all season- other elite DEs find a way to pressure the QB, this isn't a dig at Clayborn but the staff for not finding ways to adjust to quick passing. Part of the problem being gassed at the end of games was TOP and inability to get off the field on third and especially fourth down. Coaching will always be the wildcard with this defense. Iowa was outstanding at third down defense and pressure in the '08 and '09 versions with many similar players.

If Tarp or Nielsen is healthy the entire season, than maybe the defense performs better, but if Iowa trusts Hyde and Prater more on third downs (especially with Senior Safties) the D-line more than likely has an extra second or two to get pressure on the QB. Too much cushion and too many times playing contain instead of attacking with our line.
Click to expand...

As I recall, earlier in the season, Prater attempted to play a little more tightly ... and make more aggressive breaks on the ball. And he was also getting torched much more regularly early in the season. As the season progressed, he seemed to "back off a bit" and play more within himself and within what we traditionally do. As a result, we were able to more effectively "bait" QBs into making ill-advised throws.

Anyhow, as the CB play admittedly improved as the season progressed, the injuries continued to pile up at LB. At least against MSU we still had Nielsen for much of the game. After that it was Morris and the trauma unit.

And speaking of Morris ... do you NOT believe that having a TR FR at the MIKE position didn't impact the production of Iowa's DL? Do you believe that he was having the DL lined up nearly as well as Angerer had the guys lined up in 2009? I think that the stats are really telling in this regard. In the first part of the season ... Iowa's DL was putting up pretty darn nice numbers ... and it wasn't against terrible competition either. However, after our LB corps became a complete trauma ward ... even Mike Daniels impressive early season production absolutely vanished. I've heard various conjectures about how the Iowa D had guys who were too worried about protecting themselves for the NFL ... however, I'm not sure that I buy it. If that were true ... then the production of Daniels wouldn't have dropped off as it had.
 


spudhawk said:
@Homer- all of those could have been factors, but you also clearly had a talent gap between 1-5 and no one (except maybe Daniels) seemed to improve their play from the year before- Iowa was successfully schemed all season- other elite DEs find a way to pressure the QB, this isn't a dig at Clayborn but the staff for not finding ways to adjust to quick passing. Part of the problem being gassed at the end of games was TOP and inability to get off the field on third and especially fourth down. Coaching will always be the wildcard with this defense. Iowa was outstanding at third down defense and pressure in the '08 and '09 versions with many similar players.
Click to expand...

spud -

If there was such a lack of "improvement" on the DL, then why would you be more optimistic than I am about the DL situation in 2011? If you have a bunch of inferior players ... what good does it do to simply rotate more of them onto the field?

If Binns can re-assert himself as a team leader and regain the trust of the team/coaches ... then I think that he could make legit noise back at his DE spot and make a big impact for us. If Daniels takes his workman-like philosophy and not only leads by example but also becomes a bit more of a vocal leader ... then he could make quite an impact too. Furthermore, with more consistent LB play and with a MIKE LB who understand how to line up our front 7 better ... that could perhaps REALLY set up the D for success.

Of course, that's not to say that the group couldn't use a little bit of luck. For instance, it would be great if Alvis can remain healthy ... and if he proves to be every bit the player we've heard about (and have seen in snippets). Bigach demonstrates some flashes too ... however, he also has to prove that he can be more than a backup too. Lastly, we'll invariably need a back-up or two to prove that they're capable of contributing at a pretty high level too. All of this is possible ... but it certainly is no given.
 


These posts are a mix of 2011 and 2012. Personally, I stopped looking ahead to next year because it seemed when I did, this year became a mess.

I like the potential of OL. I think Boffelli, Van Sloten, Donnal and Scherff are going to be a factor in 2011. All four wont play that much but I can see two of them becoming factors at OG. In part because Gettis and Macmillan have history of injuries so opportunity will be there. They may not all be listed at OG now but KF has never been shy about moving people around to get his best five on field.

With a good OL and healthy Coker, I think offense will be okay. JV will get his chance to make plays too. McNutt, Davis,Shumpert and KMM will do fine at WR. Wouldnt be surprised to see some plays wiht AJ Derby running ball at QB. That is not typical KF offense but I think AJ may be good enough runner to make him think about it.

At DL, I think we will be okay with top four. I am guessing that will be Binns, Daniels, Bigach and Daniel. Coach K has not done all that much rotating during his time as DL coach and I dont expect that to change much. I think it may be similar to 2009 in that five guys get most of playing time.
 


SLarew said:
These posts are a mix of 2011 and 2012. Personally, I stopped looking ahead to next year because it seemed when I did, this year became a mess.
Click to expand...

SLarew -

The reason why the 2010 season was "a mess" had little to do with the fact that you were looking forward.

Here are some observations ....

- Wegher leaving was freaky
- Hampton blowing out his other ACL was unfortunate but not necessarily a big shock. It's not all that uncommon for that to happen. Hopefully that doesn't happen to DeAndre Johnson in 2011.
- The fact that BOTH ARob (concussions) and Coker (collar bone) battled injuries was both unfortunate and a little freaky.

- The fact that ALL of the originally projected starting LBs got hammered by injuries (Nielsen, Tarp, and Hunter) was freaky in itself. However, it got even worse when Tillison, Johnson, DiBona, and Kirksey each got dinged too at different times of the season compounded on our LB woes. Heck, Getz didn't even really landed on the radar because he was seemingly always battling injuries. All the LB injuries was completely freaky.

- Injuries on the OL is pretty common. However, the simultaneous injuries to both Gettis and MacMillan was a bit freaky. Furthermore, to compound upon that, Ferentz played dinged through the latter part of the season. When you combine all this to the fact that we had Coker, a TR FR, helping to protect Stanzi in the latter part of the season ... no wonder Stanzi wasn't quite himself at the end of the season.

All the same ... we're still talking about a Hawkeye squad that lost 5 games by a ridiculously small margin.
 


Nothing was that freaky. Iowa RB's always get hurt or leave the team. Goes back to Greving.

The injuries are part of the game. Iowa cannot afford to take injuries to any single position. We have better depth than we did years ago, which is what has kept us in games instead of blow outs, but coaching also was a problem last year.

Lack of subs early in the season to keep guys fresh, and that also seems to be a theme on defense. Keep the same 4 DL, which is also a depth concern since we recruit guys 240lbs to be DL, so it takes a few years for them to develop strength and add weight.

Last year was injuries and coaching, nothing more.

The next two years i don't expect much. Vandy didn't show much in the starts he had (yes he played well at OSU but he got away with many bad throws), and we're a bit unproven at the WR position. We know what McNutt can do, but Davis has only shown flashes.
 


homerHAWKeye777 said:
SLarew -

The reason why the 2010 season was "a mess" had little to do with the fact that you were looking forward.

Here are some observations ....

- Wegher leaving was freaky
- Hampton blowing out his other ACL was unfortunate but not necessarily a big shock. It's not all that uncommon for that to happen. Hopefully that doesn't happen to DeAndre Johnson in 2011.
- The fact that BOTH ARob (concussions) and Coker (collar bone) battled injuries was both unfortunate and a little freaky.

- The fact that ALL of the originally projected starting LBs got hammered by injuries (Nielsen, Tarp, and Hunter) was freaky in itself. However, it got even worse when Tillison, Johnson, DiBona, and Kirksey each got dinged too at different times of the season compounded on our LB woes. Heck, Getz didn't even really landed on the radar because he was seemingly always battling injuries. All the LB injuries was completely freaky.

- Injuries on the OL is pretty common. However, the simultaneous injuries to both Gettis and MacMillan was a bit freaky. Furthermore, to compound upon that, Ferentz played dinged through the latter part of the season. When you combine all this to the fact that we had Coker, a TR FR, helping to protect Stanzi in the latter part of the season ... no wonder Stanzi wasn't quite himself at the end of the season.

All the same ... we're still talking about a Hawkeye squad that lost 5 games by a ridiculously small margin.
Click to expand...

You forgot Coach Parker and his diabetes woes. I think that had an effect on the team that is hard to quantify.
 


Homer,

The not looking ahead to next year comment was meant to state my own personal superstition. I stopped anticipating next season until current season finished. I know my thinking has no impact on Iowa football. I should have stated more clearly. I am excited and focused on 2011. Will think about 2012 later simply because of my superstitious nature.

And I know when people were anticipationg 2011 season in 2009, they were projecting all those RBs to be involved. What happened is and was a shocker that way.
 


Looking forward=confident optimism
I am confident we will compete every year and when the cards fall right Iowa is in top 15 discussions. More than that is too much work at this point in the year. Sept. is a different issue. I'm confortable with the .500 season being a floor,7-9 wins common and 9+ regular enough to get some top flight recruits.
 


I would be shocked if Iowa was a .500 team next year. They have the most favorable schedule in the conference and they have way too much talent to fall that low. Homer touched on some "freaky" things that happened early and I am sure there were a couple things going on during the year that we will never hear about. 18-22 year old kids are impacted drastically by suprises. Kind of like Murphys Law. I see a much better overall team this coming year with a chance to be very good. Keep in mind the tough schedule we had last year and we lost 5 games by a total of 17 points while leading in each game late in the 4th quarter. I think the coaching did a good job even though the play calling as usual was questionable. I realistically see a 9-11 win season and the Nebby game might be the most important game of the year.
 


SLarew said:
Homer,

The not looking ahead to next year comment was meant to state my own personal superstition. I stopped anticipating next season until current season finished. I know my thinking has no impact on Iowa football. I should have stated more clearly. I am excited and focused on 2011. Will think about 2012 later simply because of my superstitious nature.

And I know when people were anticipationg 2011 season in 2009, they were projecting all those RBs to be involved. What happened is and was a shocker that way.
Click to expand...

LOL! I understood ya ... I was just dissin' your superstitiousness.
 


DBAHawkFan said:
Lack of subs early in the season to keep guys fresh, and that also seems to be a theme on defense. Keep the same 4 DL, which is also a depth concern since we recruit guys 240lbs to be DL, so it takes a few years for them to develop strength and add weight.

Last year was injuries and coaching, nothing more.
Click to expand...

I really don't agree with the above assertions AT ALL!

Iowa rotated guys on the DL with pretty great frequency. Both Binns and Daniels saw a lot of action ... and Daniel even saw a good bit of positional action too. Frankly, that is MORE substitution on the DL than we usually see.

As for coaching ... a lot of the coaching was pretty darn solid. The coaching was frankly one of the reasons why Iowa stayed in several of the games. That's not to say that mistakes weren't made ... however, when things go right, much of the credit goes to the players for their execution. When things DON'T go right ... much of the blame is also ATTRIBUTABLE TO THEM. It's a little thing called accountability.

Whenever you lose close games ... the outcomes could have hinged on any one of dozens of different things. One of the biggest things that hurt Iowa early in the season was absolutely terrible special teams play. As the season progressed ... it seemed that it was then largely injuries and emotional deflation that brought down the team.
 




lack of LBs in '10 put more pressure on the DL. Easier to be a real effective DL when you have quality cover guys behind you - that xtra second, xtra step, xtra confidence that the guys will make the plays will make all the difference in the world.

had nothing to do with being 'out of condition'.
 


imported_ankle23 said:
lack of LBs in '10 put more pressure on the DL. Easier to be a real effective DL when you have quality cover guys behind you - that xtra second, xtra step, xtra confidence that the guys will make the plays will make all the difference in the world.

had nothing to do with being 'out of condition'.
Click to expand...

Thank you! That's EXACTLY what I've been trying to tell a lot folks!
 


You must log in or register to reply here.


Latest posts

Share this page






Top