JonDMiller
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The Odds: Stanzi Much Better in 2010 | Hawkeye Nation
I don’t think there is any question that Rick Stanzi will be a better quarterback, statistically, in 2010 than he was in 2009. Whether or not that equates to Iowa matching this season’s win total is not a given, however. The Hawkeyes overcame so much adversity this year, through injuries and on field mistakes, that their 11-2, Orange Bowl winning final tally is nearly as remarkable as the 2004 team winning a Big Ten title and getting to 10 wins.
Why? Let’s dive in.
In 2004, Iowa had the second worst rushing attack in the nation. They were down to 5th string walk on Sam Brownlee. Albert Young, Jermelle Lewis, Marcus Schnoor and Marques Simmons were injured, the first three with ACL’s and Simmons with the dreaded high ankle sprain. Iowa had to totally retool and revamp their offensive strategy in early October and they went to the air. Tate would throw just four interceptions between Iowa’s loss at Michigan that evened their record at 2-2 and before the start of the regular season home finale against Wisconsin. He’d throw three picks in that game, two on the short side of the field, but the 2004 Iowa defense was the best of the Ferentz era and bailed him out, and the Hawks cruised to a win. Tate threw 20 touchdowns to 14 interceptions that season, five picks over Iowa’s final two games, on 375 passing attempts. That is one interceptions for every 26.7 passing attempts.
This season, Rick Stanzi threw 17 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions on 304 passing attempts, which is one for every 20.2 attempts. In a cursory scan of every starting quarterback playing for a BCS conference team, there was just one that had more interceptions than Stanzi; Jacory Harris of the Miami Hurricanes. He also threw 24 touchdowns and had 406 passing attempts, 102 more than Stanzi. That equates to an interception in every 23.8 passing attempts, and Harris also played two more games than did Stanzi.
Ben Chappell of Indiana also threw 17 TD’s to 15 INT’s, but had 428 attempts (1 in 28.5). T.J. Yates of North Carolina had 15 INT’s and just 14 TD’s, but that came in 355 attempts (1 in 223.6). Joe Cox of Georgia had 24 TD’s to 15 INT’s, but in 339 attempts.
You get the picture; Rick Stanzi was intercepted more than any other quarterback in the entire FBS level with regards to INT’s per pass attempt. Like Tate, Stanzi was also playing with a depleted deck at running back, as expected starter Jewel Hampton didn’t see a snap this year due to a knee injury. Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher combined for roughly 1400 yards and 13 touchdowns, which was substantially more than Tate had to work with in 2004. However, neither Robinson or Wegher was a picture of health, as A-Rob missed the Indiana and Northwestern games due to injury and Wegher missed the Ohio State contest.
Stanzi also completed just 56.2 percent of his passes while Tate was over 62 percent.
This isn’t to compare Stanzi to Tate; both are different quarterbacks with different skill sets. However, thus far I want to illustrated a couple of things…one being that the Iowa defense saved the day again this year, as it has done so often in the Kirk Ferentz/Norm Parker era. Second, I don’t think Stanzi will have a season like this next year, as I think this is the ‘worst’ he could play.
Now, when I say ‘worst’ that is not to mean I am being highly critical of Rick. The kid simply has that ‘IT’ factor; you either have ‘IT’ or you don’t. He does. No way does Iowa beat Michigan State without Stanzi’s ITness. No way does Iowa come back to beat Indiana without Stanzi’s ITness. While Iowa was put into some tricky spots because of some ill-advised Stanzi mistakes, they would not have won 11 games without his ability to flush those mistakes and get back on the saddle. I can’t recall another Iowa quarterback that had such an ability to forget the last play and make a phenomenal play the next time he touches the ball.
Stanzi also throws the best passes an Iowa quarterback has tossed since at least the Matt Rogers era, and we probably have to go back to the Chuck Hartlieb era. Chuck is a friend of mine and I don’t want to irritate good old #8, but I think Stanzi’s deep to medium range passes seem more effortless than even he threw. The closest comparison I have throwing the ball in my lifetime with regards to Stanzi would be Chuck Long. He’s no Chuck Long, but few quarterbacks in Big Ten history have approached that level of seemingly effortless excellence.
Which is one of the reasons why I cannot envision Stanzi having another season where he throws an interception every 20 times he tosses the pigskin. In 2008, Stanzi threw 254 passes and had nine interceptins, which is an INT for ever 28.2 tosses, and a completion percentage of 59.06. Did he regress this year?
Well, he didn’t have Shonn Greene, Rob Bruggeman or Seth Olsen. The sledding was more challenging as he was the focus of the offense. The bad news here is that he will certainly be the focus again next year along these lines, as Rafael Eubanks, Bryan Bulaga, Dace Richardson and Kyle Calloway will not be along the offensive line, and Tony Moeaki will not be there, either. That is a LOT of loss in the running game. Probably the most significant loss in that department since following the 2002 season. Robert Gallery was still around for 2003, and that was a big deal. Riley Reiff will still be around for Iowa next year, and I think he has a chance to be the best offensive linemen Iowa has had since Gallery, and that includes Bulaga. Julian Vandervelde will also return, as will Adam Gettis who made a few starts. Beyond that, it’s wide open and Stanzi and the running game will have to deal with that.
So on the face of things, Stanzi may feel more pressure next year and may not have as much protection as he did this season.
However, I just can’t see Stanzi having the worst interception to passing attempt ratio in college football for two years in a row. The odds suggest that simply cannot happen. Stanzi won’t have to place the world on his back next year, either, as Iowa will have the best defensive line in the nation and a defense that will probably be among the 15 best in the country for the third straight season. He will also have the top senior punter (according to Mel Kiper) and an experienced place kicker, plus a stable of running backs that might make Wisconsin blush.
Stanzi will have to improve, and I think he will. The kid spends an unreal amount of time in film study, and he has NFL skills. He might have the most desirable set of NFL skills an Iowa quarterback has had since Hartlieb and Long. In fact, I know that he does. And should he get injured, the player behind him (James Vandenberg) might have a better collection of raw skills than even Stanzi.
Which brings me to my final point in why I think Stanzi will have a much better 2010; competition.
I am not saying that Rick is clinging perilously to his job. There was no debate on who was going to start the Orange Bowl. It’s Rick’s job to lose, but Vandenberg has had a taste now and he knows he can go anywhere and beat anyone, relying on his experience from nearly beating Ohio State in The Shoe. He has a ways to go and is unpolished, but he has the skill set and can make throws I haven’t seen an Iowa quarterback make since Hartlieb. The across the body laser to Stross in the endzone on Iowa’s first drive against the Buckeyes is the first such play that stands out.
Vandenberg will push Stanzi, and Stanzi will be the better for it. I am not suggesting there will be any quarterback controversy; it’s Rick’s job and I think he will go to a new level. He’ll have to do that early as Iowa retools its offensive line.
If he does what I expect him to do, I think the Hawkeyes will roll into Ann Arbor on October 16th of next year 5-0, having had a bye week before facing the Wolverines, ranked in the Top Five and a chance to put National Championship discussions back on the menu if they can get past Michigan. After that game, it will be Wisconsin and Michigan State at home, then a pair of road games at Indiana and Northwestern. Then on November 22nd, Ohio State comes to Kinnick Stadium. There is a chance that game could have more than just Big Ten championship implications, if Stanzi makes the kind of improvement I am confident he can make.
I don’t think there is any question that Rick Stanzi will be a better quarterback, statistically, in 2010 than he was in 2009. Whether or not that equates to Iowa matching this season’s win total is not a given, however. The Hawkeyes overcame so much adversity this year, through injuries and on field mistakes, that their 11-2, Orange Bowl winning final tally is nearly as remarkable as the 2004 team winning a Big Ten title and getting to 10 wins.
Why? Let’s dive in.
In 2004, Iowa had the second worst rushing attack in the nation. They were down to 5th string walk on Sam Brownlee. Albert Young, Jermelle Lewis, Marcus Schnoor and Marques Simmons were injured, the first three with ACL’s and Simmons with the dreaded high ankle sprain. Iowa had to totally retool and revamp their offensive strategy in early October and they went to the air. Tate would throw just four interceptions between Iowa’s loss at Michigan that evened their record at 2-2 and before the start of the regular season home finale against Wisconsin. He’d throw three picks in that game, two on the short side of the field, but the 2004 Iowa defense was the best of the Ferentz era and bailed him out, and the Hawks cruised to a win. Tate threw 20 touchdowns to 14 interceptions that season, five picks over Iowa’s final two games, on 375 passing attempts. That is one interceptions for every 26.7 passing attempts.
This season, Rick Stanzi threw 17 touchdown passes and 15 interceptions on 304 passing attempts, which is one for every 20.2 attempts. In a cursory scan of every starting quarterback playing for a BCS conference team, there was just one that had more interceptions than Stanzi; Jacory Harris of the Miami Hurricanes. He also threw 24 touchdowns and had 406 passing attempts, 102 more than Stanzi. That equates to an interception in every 23.8 passing attempts, and Harris also played two more games than did Stanzi.
Ben Chappell of Indiana also threw 17 TD’s to 15 INT’s, but had 428 attempts (1 in 28.5). T.J. Yates of North Carolina had 15 INT’s and just 14 TD’s, but that came in 355 attempts (1 in 223.6). Joe Cox of Georgia had 24 TD’s to 15 INT’s, but in 339 attempts.
You get the picture; Rick Stanzi was intercepted more than any other quarterback in the entire FBS level with regards to INT’s per pass attempt. Like Tate, Stanzi was also playing with a depleted deck at running back, as expected starter Jewel Hampton didn’t see a snap this year due to a knee injury. Adam Robinson and Brandon Wegher combined for roughly 1400 yards and 13 touchdowns, which was substantially more than Tate had to work with in 2004. However, neither Robinson or Wegher was a picture of health, as A-Rob missed the Indiana and Northwestern games due to injury and Wegher missed the Ohio State contest.
Stanzi also completed just 56.2 percent of his passes while Tate was over 62 percent.
This isn’t to compare Stanzi to Tate; both are different quarterbacks with different skill sets. However, thus far I want to illustrated a couple of things…one being that the Iowa defense saved the day again this year, as it has done so often in the Kirk Ferentz/Norm Parker era. Second, I don’t think Stanzi will have a season like this next year, as I think this is the ‘worst’ he could play.
Now, when I say ‘worst’ that is not to mean I am being highly critical of Rick. The kid simply has that ‘IT’ factor; you either have ‘IT’ or you don’t. He does. No way does Iowa beat Michigan State without Stanzi’s ITness. No way does Iowa come back to beat Indiana without Stanzi’s ITness. While Iowa was put into some tricky spots because of some ill-advised Stanzi mistakes, they would not have won 11 games without his ability to flush those mistakes and get back on the saddle. I can’t recall another Iowa quarterback that had such an ability to forget the last play and make a phenomenal play the next time he touches the ball.
Stanzi also throws the best passes an Iowa quarterback has tossed since at least the Matt Rogers era, and we probably have to go back to the Chuck Hartlieb era. Chuck is a friend of mine and I don’t want to irritate good old #8, but I think Stanzi’s deep to medium range passes seem more effortless than even he threw. The closest comparison I have throwing the ball in my lifetime with regards to Stanzi would be Chuck Long. He’s no Chuck Long, but few quarterbacks in Big Ten history have approached that level of seemingly effortless excellence.
Which is one of the reasons why I cannot envision Stanzi having another season where he throws an interception every 20 times he tosses the pigskin. In 2008, Stanzi threw 254 passes and had nine interceptins, which is an INT for ever 28.2 tosses, and a completion percentage of 59.06. Did he regress this year?
Well, he didn’t have Shonn Greene, Rob Bruggeman or Seth Olsen. The sledding was more challenging as he was the focus of the offense. The bad news here is that he will certainly be the focus again next year along these lines, as Rafael Eubanks, Bryan Bulaga, Dace Richardson and Kyle Calloway will not be along the offensive line, and Tony Moeaki will not be there, either. That is a LOT of loss in the running game. Probably the most significant loss in that department since following the 2002 season. Robert Gallery was still around for 2003, and that was a big deal. Riley Reiff will still be around for Iowa next year, and I think he has a chance to be the best offensive linemen Iowa has had since Gallery, and that includes Bulaga. Julian Vandervelde will also return, as will Adam Gettis who made a few starts. Beyond that, it’s wide open and Stanzi and the running game will have to deal with that.
So on the face of things, Stanzi may feel more pressure next year and may not have as much protection as he did this season.
However, I just can’t see Stanzi having the worst interception to passing attempt ratio in college football for two years in a row. The odds suggest that simply cannot happen. Stanzi won’t have to place the world on his back next year, either, as Iowa will have the best defensive line in the nation and a defense that will probably be among the 15 best in the country for the third straight season. He will also have the top senior punter (according to Mel Kiper) and an experienced place kicker, plus a stable of running backs that might make Wisconsin blush.
Stanzi will have to improve, and I think he will. The kid spends an unreal amount of time in film study, and he has NFL skills. He might have the most desirable set of NFL skills an Iowa quarterback has had since Hartlieb and Long. In fact, I know that he does. And should he get injured, the player behind him (James Vandenberg) might have a better collection of raw skills than even Stanzi.
Which brings me to my final point in why I think Stanzi will have a much better 2010; competition.
I am not saying that Rick is clinging perilously to his job. There was no debate on who was going to start the Orange Bowl. It’s Rick’s job to lose, but Vandenberg has had a taste now and he knows he can go anywhere and beat anyone, relying on his experience from nearly beating Ohio State in The Shoe. He has a ways to go and is unpolished, but he has the skill set and can make throws I haven’t seen an Iowa quarterback make since Hartlieb. The across the body laser to Stross in the endzone on Iowa’s first drive against the Buckeyes is the first such play that stands out.
Vandenberg will push Stanzi, and Stanzi will be the better for it. I am not suggesting there will be any quarterback controversy; it’s Rick’s job and I think he will go to a new level. He’ll have to do that early as Iowa retools its offensive line.
If he does what I expect him to do, I think the Hawkeyes will roll into Ann Arbor on October 16th of next year 5-0, having had a bye week before facing the Wolverines, ranked in the Top Five and a chance to put National Championship discussions back on the menu if they can get past Michigan. After that game, it will be Wisconsin and Michigan State at home, then a pair of road games at Indiana and Northwestern. Then on November 22nd, Ohio State comes to Kinnick Stadium. There is a chance that game could have more than just Big Ten championship implications, if Stanzi makes the kind of improvement I am confident he can make.
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