The 2022/2023 Stretch Run Synopsis

eyekwah

eyekwah

Well-Known Member
Below is a glance at what lies ahead for teams competing for the top 4 slots in the B1G Tournament. Based on schedule difficulty it is most likely Purdue, Indiana, Maryland and Illinois will get the advantage of not playing on Thursday. Iowa could match Illinois but it can only afford one loss.

2023-02-12 7am Remaining Schedule Difficulty Rankings:
Revised Remaining Schedule 2023-02-17 8:30 AM
NW - @IL ,@MD ,PSU, @RU - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games
IN - @MSU, @PU, IA, MI - 4 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games
WI - IA, @MI, PU, @MN - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games
MI - @RU, WI, @IL, @IN - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games
IL - NW, @OSU, MI, @PU - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games
Purdue - IN, @WI, IL - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 1 road games
IA - @WI, MSU, @IN, NE - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games
MSU - MN, IN, @IA, @NE, OSU - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 4 road games
Rutgers - MI, @PSU, @MN, NW - 2 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games
MD - MN, NW, @OSU, @PSU - 2 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games

Northwestern probably has 5 ? losses out of it 5 remaining games. Finishes 10 & 10. 13 & 7
Indiana is playing really well and Purdue is their biggest challenge. Finishes 14 & 6. 13 & 7
Wisconsin is already below .500 and probably finishes at 9 & 11. 10 & 10
Michigan probably finished 11 & 9 and goes 3 & 3 the last 6 games.
Illinois will end up 13 & 7 12 & 8 with two losses to Indiana and Purdue.
Purdue has Illinois and Indiana at home and should be able to handle the rest. 18 & 2. 17 & 3 16 & 4
Iowa is not likely to beat Indiana on the road. @NW and @ WI will be a challenge. 11 & 9. At best 13 & 7.
MSU has 3 more losses and finishes 11 & 9.
Rutgers finishes 12 & 8. 11 & 9
Maryland finishes 13 & 7. Only remaining loss is Purdue and Nebraska. 12 & 8

Final Standings Guess:
Purdue
Indiana
Northwestern
Maryland
Illinois
Iowa
Rutgers
Michigan State
Michigan
Wisconsin
 
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Give me 12-8 for the Hawks. Basically, repeating what they did conference record wise last year. Will they get in the top 4 and get the double bye remains to be seen. Sweeping Rutgers was huge.
 
Illinois could very well lose at Penn State or at Ohio State. We own so many tie breakers head to head that I think 12-8 gets us a double bye.
 
Looks like Maryland is in the exact same boat as Illinois. We probably need them to finish 1-1 on the road against Penn State and Ohio State to tie them.
 
The Big 10 bracket simulator has us as the 6 seed, Maryland the 3 seed, and Rutgers the 2 seed. That's a pretty good path for us. The 6 seed plays the late game Thursday and Friday so I'd be pretty happy with a 12-8 record and the 6 seed.

If I go in and change the northwestern Iowa game to a win for us, it puts us in a 5 way tie for 3rd place and gives us the 3 seed. That's pretty darn good too. We would have to beat Illinois and Rutgers instead of Maryland then Rutgers. I think that's a bit tougher, but we also don't have to win Thursday. That's the scenario I'm rooting for. Giving Rutgers one more loss would make us the 2 seed which would also be sweet. As long as we finish 12-8 at worse we are looking pretty good. There is probably a scenario out there where we finish 12-8 and end up the 5 seed instead of the 6. That would probably be the worst thing that could happen.
 
PCHawk said:
Illinois could very well lose at Penn State or at Ohio State. We own so many tie breakers head to head that I think 12-8 gets us a double bye.
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6-1/5-2 down the stretch is what I am looking at, so they should get the double bye if they hold serve at home and pick off Northwestern or Wisconsin on the road.
 
It's unconceivable to me how people are sleeping on N'Western, as they've already scored roadie wins @ MSU @ IND @ WISC @ OSU and @ NEB. With the Purdon't win yesterday I believe they're in a great place to secure a second place finish.
eyekwah said:
Below is a glance at what lies ahead for teams competing for the top 4 slots in the B1G Tournament. Based on schedule difficulty it is most likely Purdue, Indiana, Maryland and Illinois will get the advantage of not playing on Thursday. Iowa could match Illinois but it can only afford one loss.

2023-02-12 7am Remaining Schedule Difficulty Rankings:

NW - PU,IN,IA,@IL,@MD,PSU,@RU - 6 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games
IN - @NW,IL,@MSU,@PU,IA,MI - 6 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games
WI - MI,RU,IA,@MI,PU,@MN - 5 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 2 road games
MI - @WI,MSU,@RU,WI,@IL,@IN - 4 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 4 road games
IL - @PSU,@IN,MN,NW,@OSU,MI,@PU - 4 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 4 road games
Purdue - @NW,@MD,OSU,IN,@WI,IL - 4 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games
IA - @MN,OSU,@NW,@WI,MSU,@IU,NE - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 4 road games
MSU - @OSU,MN,@MI,IN,@IA,@NE,OSU - 3 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 4 road games
Rutgers - NE,@WI,MI,@PSU,@MN,NW - 2 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games
MD - PU,@NE,MN,NW,@OSU,@PSU - 2 games vs teams over .500 in conference - 3 road games

Northwestern probably has 5 losses out of it 7 remaining games. Finishes 10 & 10.
Indiana is playing really well and Purdue is their biggest challenge. Finishes 14 & 6.
Wisconsin is already below .500 and probably finishes at 9 & 11.
Michigan probably finished 11 & 9 and goes 3 & 3 the last 6 games.
Illinois will end up 13 & 7 with two losses to Indiana and Purdue
Purdue has Illinois and Indiana at home and should be able to handle the rest. 18 & 2.
Iowa is not likely to beat Indiana on the road. @NW and @ WI will be a challenge. 11 & 9. At best 13 & 7.
MSU has 3 more losses and finishes 11 & 9.
Rutgers finishes 12 & 8.
Maryland finishes 13 & 7. Only remaining loss is Purdue.

Final Standings:
Purdue
Indiana
Maryland
Illinois
Rutgers
Iowa
Michigan State
Michigan
Northwestern
Wisconsin
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It's inconceivable to me how people are sleeping on N'Western, as they have already scored roadie wins @ MSU @ IND @ OSU @ WISC and @ NEB. With their win yesterday, I believe they have advantageously positioned themselves to secure a 2nd place finish in the B1G. Maryland is extremely overrated, and with this, they will not finish the league at 13-7. 11-9 seems more plausible for the Terps. Hawkeyes more than likely finish 11-9 with the tie-breaker over Maryland. I also have Illinios at 11-9 with the Hawkeyes getting the tie-breaker there, as well. Double byes ultimately go to Purdon't, NW, IND, and Rutgers. Iowa gets the #5 seed in the B1G tournament with the tie-breakers in cosideration.
 
PCHawk said:
Looks like Maryland is in the exact same boat as Illinois. We probably need them to finish 1-1 on the road against Penn State and Ohio State to tie them.
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Maryland goes 0-2 on the road here...PSU is extremely tough at home. Their only shot at a win is OSU, as the Buckeye may have mailed it in...
 
This thread was started before the NW/Purdue game??? Why would NW collapse as predicted in the OP??

I think Iowa gets 4 of the last 6. 3 at home and sneak Wisconsin maybe?

12-8 gets them the double bye and sniffing a 5-6 seed in the dance depending on the conference tourney.
 
NorthKCHawk said:
This thread was started before the NW/Purdue game??? Why would NW collapse as predicted in the OP??

I think Iowa gets 4 of the last 6. 3 at home and sneak Wisconsin maybe?

12-8 gets them the double bye and sniffing a 5-6 seed in the dance depending on the conference tourney.
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Yep, 12-8 should get them a double bye, which is determinant on them getting a sneaky roadie somewhere along the way. Bucky Badger probably is the best shot...
 
haydensly said:
The way we have been playing on the road for most of the season, I wouldn't pencil in any of these remaining road games as wins. I hope I am wrong because we're going to need one or two.
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If the Hawks hold serve at home, all they need is one roadie, because they have tie-breakers with Maryland, Illini, and Rutgers, which is huge!
 
Dadman said:

mred's Big 10 MBB Tournament Seeding Tiebreaker

Big 10 Conference Men's Basketball Tournament Seeding and Tiebreakers
bball.notnothing.net

have some fun. I played several scenarios. However, we need one of the road games between bucky and the not-so-mildcats (this year, anyway). I am pretty sure we are gonna get served at Indiana though.........
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Agree about the Hoosier game...that could get ugly. The sky might fall in on that one...literally. Watch out for falling scoreboards and such...
 
This really plays in our favor.
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PCHawk said:
Are any more of our home games quad 1?
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Michigan State has a solid chance to be

also 3 road game opportunities as well, but I would count all of these as loses.

@Northwestern
@Wisconsin - If they win tonight good chance
@Indiana

23-8- 3-4 Seed
22-9- 5 seed
21-10- 5-6 Seed
20-11- 6-7 seed
19-12- 7-9 seed
18-13- 8-10 seed
17-14- first four MAYYYYBE
16-15 Maybe Fran goes to Notre Dame
 
haydensly said:
The way we have been playing on the road for most of the season, I wouldn't pencil in any of these remaining road games as wins. I hope I am wrong because we're going to need one or two.
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6 games left - 3 on the road, 3 at home - if Iowa splits 3-3, they are 11-9 - easily in the dance - any road wins will just help our overall seed, which also would be great. It would take a meltdown of epic proportions for Iowa not to dance at this moment. So, need is debatable, but I sure would like it.
 
Going to be interesting for sure.

Iowa losses:

Purdue - Not a huge deal on the road
OSU - turning out to be a bigger deal, but Iowa struggles with big teams. Road games
PSU - turning into more of a big deal on road, but not easy place to play.
Nebby - Road game turning into a big deal
Wisky - Home game turning into a huge deal. Wisky plays big
MSU - tough place, turning into a bigger deal.

Minny...a win on the road but felt almost like a loss considering what the goofs were up against.

3 of the 6 losses on the road to bottom feeders.
ISU can't win on the road period.

IU on road, not expecting win given body of work on road
Wisky on road, over 50 percent chance a loss on road
NW hard to count this one a win given body of work on road.

MSU at home will take good effort. Key point....big team
OSU at home. Turmoil. Another big team
Nebby at home should be win. Not a small team. Keep thinking about football.

Given what we have seen, 3 losses on road. MSU key to being 1 over 500. OSU a lot goes into that one.

Observations. - Iowa early struggles against bottom feeders included PM playing significant minutes. Was it health? Is it over? No easy answers.

What is for sure Iowa's record with PS playing significant minutes is a very good thing correlating with wins. Last 2 games less minutes than significant. One big loss and one bad win against a bad team.

> PM = < PS

Does > PM have to = < PS? I don't think so.

High levels of CM over moderately high CM = less good outcomes if you look a the stats.

For FM, figure out which guard = better outcome. I would say > Perkins and < Ullis

PS = > Rebounds over CM. Slightly less assists with PS over CM

Against big teams Iowa has to have more weakside rebounds. That decidedly is PS.

My analysis.
 
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