My friends and I watch a ton of college bball as we go to Vegas every year for the first weekend of the NCAA tournament, and here are our thoughts as of right now...
Deep sleeper:
North Carolina Central - 18 game winning streak, 15-1 conference record. Lost to Cincy and Wichita St early in the year, beat a decent NC State team. I don't think they'll win their first round game (projected 14 seed) but hey its a deep sleeper...
Higher seeded underrated teams:
Arkansas - Just a scary team. Beat Kentucky twice in overtime, lost to Florida in OT. They have some bad road losses, but an 80 point average offense.
Oregon - High scoring, 82.5 a game. Beat Arizona at home, lost by 2 on the road. They put up points in a hurry.
Mid seed teams:
Cincinnati - Flat out dangerous team. Long and athletic. Likely a 4/5 seed so would play a 4/5 (MSU/OSU?) in the second game followed by a 1 seed. Upset potential there.
Michigan State - If healthy they are probably the #1 team in the country. If they put it together in the BTT they should be dangerous in the NCAA Tournament
Overrated:
Wisconsin - They can't seem to make it out of the sweet 16...ever. Lost to 12 seed Mississippi in '13, 12 seed Cornell in '10. They aren't a dangerous or "sexy" team, they just grind and navigate their way through their schedule. Unlike a team like Iowa who can really beat up on teams who haven't seen them before, Wisconsin always seems susceptible to teams they don't know.
VCU - From a pure Vegas standpoint their spreads will be better than they should be because of VCU's recent NCAA tournament history and Shaka Smart. Their moneylines won't pay as well so should probably be avoided.
Kentucky - Remember when they lost the first round of the NIT and then started this season ranked #1 in the country? They just aren't as good of a team as people think they should be.
SDSU - Great wins early in the season @Kansas and against Creighton. After that they beat up on a weak conference.
