SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Last week: 5-5
Overall: 26-27
Best bets: 3-2
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today and home team is in all CAPS.
Illinois +8 over PENN STATE
Illini have covered three straight in Happy Valley and Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Both teams have decent defenses, but I think Illinois has the better run game and in a battle of freshmen quarterbacks I’ll lean towards the one who can make plays running the ball. Penn State 20, Illinois 19
OHIO STATE -23.5 over Indiana
The Hoosiers have scored as many as 17 points in this series just twice since 1996, and they’re playing their first tough road game of the season coming off a draining and heartbreaking loss to Michigan a week ago. Ohio State has covered the last five in the series, and will be looking to make a statement after last week’s complacent effort at Illinois. Ohio State 45, Indiana 17
Minnesota +21 over WISCONSIN
Badgers have won the slab of bacon nine of last 11times in this rivalry, but Gophers have covered six of the last eight in this series including one of the last five played in Madison. The last three meetings have been decided by a total of 13 points. Wisconsin 38, Minnesota 21
Purdue-NORTHWESTERN under 50
The Boilermakers are beat up and terrible, but they’re coming off a bye week and Northwestern is a terrible favorite. Check out these numbers: failed to cover their last four, 4-15 in their last 19 as a favorite, and just 6-13 ATS at home since 2007. Combine those numbers with Purdue giving a quarterback his first start on the road and I expect a low-scoring game. Northwestern 26, Purdue 16
GEORGIA -11 over Tennessee
No trends here, just straight up that after four straight losses the ‘Dawgs are due to vent some frustration and a Tennessee team coming off a last-second meltdown loss at LSU that’s tough to get past is the perfect outlet. Georgia 27, Tennessee 10
SOUTH CAROLINA+7.5 over Alabama
Defending champs are facing their third straight ranked opponent, and this one is coming off a bye week. Steve Spurrier has won three straight as a home dog, and his Gamecocks also covered last year’s game in Tuscaloosa. South Carolina, coming off a bye week, has a good running game combined with some playmakers at receiver that will keep it close. Alabama 24, South Carolina 20
IOWA STATE +7.5 over Utah
Don’t buy this is a look-ahead game for the Cyclones with Oklahoma and Texas on deck, because realistically ISU knows it needs this one to get bowl eligible. Utah’s opponents are a combined 4-15 this season, and the Utes are just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite. Meanwhile, Cyclones have momentum coming off scoring their most points ever in a Big 12 game and have won seven straight night games at home. Iowa State 27, Utah 24
WAKE FOREST +5.5 over Navy
In the opening week I took Maryland as a home underdog against the Midshipmen for the same reason I’m taking Wake Forest; it’s a motivational edge for the BCS team that is an underdog at home to the non-AQ. Case in point: Navy is just 7-14 ATS as a favorite since 2007. Demon Deacons have lost three straight games and are more desperate for the win here. Wake Forest 34, Navy 28
MIAMI -6.5 over Florida State
This is the Hurricanes’ first home game since September 2nd, and it’s coming against their biggest rival should they should be sky-high for this one. The Seminoles have the more efficient quarterback and the offenses are about even, but Miami is dramatically superior on defense and that can really play to the home-field advantage. Miami 27, Florida State 17
TEXAS TECH -1 over Baylor
Last week the Bears put up huge points in a win and the Red Raiders put up huge numbers in a loss, so 2-2 Texas is favored over 4-1 Baylor in what is essentially a neutral site game? It simply comes down to the fact that Texas Tech needs this game more. Texas Tech 31, Baylor 27
MISSOURI -12.5 over Colorado
The Tigers have covered the last four in this series by an average of 15 points per game, and Colorado is just 5-14 ATS as a road underdog under Dan Hawkins. Colorado has lost nine straight Big 12 games, Missouri ranks in the top 20 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense and its had two weeks to prepare. Missouri 34, Colorado 17
STANFORD-7.5 over Southern California
The Trojans are giving up over 400 yards per game on defense, and their highest quality wins so far are Hawaii and Virginia. The Cardinal defense had been great the first few weeks until they ran into Oregon's spread offense, but should perform much better against USC's more conventional attack. USC is 1-8 ATS in its last nine on grass, 3-11 ATS in its last 14 conference games, and Stanford is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games. Stanford 31, USC 21
LSU-FLORIDA under 42
Two quality defenses, and two teams with questions on offense. It's youth for the Gators, ineffectiveness for the Tigers who still haven't settled on a quarterback since the 2007 national title season. Last week Florida outgained Alabama, and held the defending champs to less than 300 yards of offense, but its young offense kept getting in the way. 11 of the last 14 meetings in this series have gone under the total, as have the Tigers' last four games. Florida 21, LSU 13
COLTS -8.5 over Chiefs
Bye week came at the right time for Kansas City, who was playing well with a 3-0 start, but this is a tough spot for a young team facing Peyton Manning come off a loss. Indianapolis 34, Kansas State 20
MICHIGAN -5 over Michigan State
Given two straight losses in this series, the dynamic Denard Robinson, the newly configured Michigan Stadium, and the Wolverines 5-0 start get ready for what should be one of the most electric home atmospheres in Ann Arbor in quite some time. This one doesn’t take a lot of analysis, because the same emotional factors that led to me taking Michigan State at home against Wisconsin last week work in Michigan’s favor this week. The favorite has covered six of the last eight in this series, and Mark Dantonio is just 3-18 in his career on the road against teams that finished 6-6 or better. After taking the over last week I am now 4-0 ATS picking Michigan games this season. Michigan 38, Michigan State 27
Best Bet—Saints -7 over CARDINALS
The defending Super Bowl champs have yet to let loose this season and this week their blitz-happy defense is facing an undrafted rookie free agent at quarterback. ‘Nuff said. Saints 31, Cardinals 14
Overall: 26-27
Best bets: 3-2
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today and home team is in all CAPS.
Illinois +8 over PENN STATE
Illini have covered three straight in Happy Valley and Penn State is just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Both teams have decent defenses, but I think Illinois has the better run game and in a battle of freshmen quarterbacks I’ll lean towards the one who can make plays running the ball. Penn State 20, Illinois 19
OHIO STATE -23.5 over Indiana
The Hoosiers have scored as many as 17 points in this series just twice since 1996, and they’re playing their first tough road game of the season coming off a draining and heartbreaking loss to Michigan a week ago. Ohio State has covered the last five in the series, and will be looking to make a statement after last week’s complacent effort at Illinois. Ohio State 45, Indiana 17
Minnesota +21 over WISCONSIN
Badgers have won the slab of bacon nine of last 11times in this rivalry, but Gophers have covered six of the last eight in this series including one of the last five played in Madison. The last three meetings have been decided by a total of 13 points. Wisconsin 38, Minnesota 21
Purdue-NORTHWESTERN under 50
The Boilermakers are beat up and terrible, but they’re coming off a bye week and Northwestern is a terrible favorite. Check out these numbers: failed to cover their last four, 4-15 in their last 19 as a favorite, and just 6-13 ATS at home since 2007. Combine those numbers with Purdue giving a quarterback his first start on the road and I expect a low-scoring game. Northwestern 26, Purdue 16
GEORGIA -11 over Tennessee
No trends here, just straight up that after four straight losses the ‘Dawgs are due to vent some frustration and a Tennessee team coming off a last-second meltdown loss at LSU that’s tough to get past is the perfect outlet. Georgia 27, Tennessee 10
SOUTH CAROLINA+7.5 over Alabama
Defending champs are facing their third straight ranked opponent, and this one is coming off a bye week. Steve Spurrier has won three straight as a home dog, and his Gamecocks also covered last year’s game in Tuscaloosa. South Carolina, coming off a bye week, has a good running game combined with some playmakers at receiver that will keep it close. Alabama 24, South Carolina 20
IOWA STATE +7.5 over Utah
Don’t buy this is a look-ahead game for the Cyclones with Oklahoma and Texas on deck, because realistically ISU knows it needs this one to get bowl eligible. Utah’s opponents are a combined 4-15 this season, and the Utes are just 9-10 ATS in their last 19 as a favorite. Meanwhile, Cyclones have momentum coming off scoring their most points ever in a Big 12 game and have won seven straight night games at home. Iowa State 27, Utah 24
WAKE FOREST +5.5 over Navy
In the opening week I took Maryland as a home underdog against the Midshipmen for the same reason I’m taking Wake Forest; it’s a motivational edge for the BCS team that is an underdog at home to the non-AQ. Case in point: Navy is just 7-14 ATS as a favorite since 2007. Demon Deacons have lost three straight games and are more desperate for the win here. Wake Forest 34, Navy 28
MIAMI -6.5 over Florida State
This is the Hurricanes’ first home game since September 2nd, and it’s coming against their biggest rival should they should be sky-high for this one. The Seminoles have the more efficient quarterback and the offenses are about even, but Miami is dramatically superior on defense and that can really play to the home-field advantage. Miami 27, Florida State 17
TEXAS TECH -1 over Baylor
Last week the Bears put up huge points in a win and the Red Raiders put up huge numbers in a loss, so 2-2 Texas is favored over 4-1 Baylor in what is essentially a neutral site game? It simply comes down to the fact that Texas Tech needs this game more. Texas Tech 31, Baylor 27
MISSOURI -12.5 over Colorado
The Tigers have covered the last four in this series by an average of 15 points per game, and Colorado is just 5-14 ATS as a road underdog under Dan Hawkins. Colorado has lost nine straight Big 12 games, Missouri ranks in the top 20 nationally in both scoring offense and scoring defense and its had two weeks to prepare. Missouri 34, Colorado 17
STANFORD-7.5 over Southern California
The Trojans are giving up over 400 yards per game on defense, and their highest quality wins so far are Hawaii and Virginia. The Cardinal defense had been great the first few weeks until they ran into Oregon's spread offense, but should perform much better against USC's more conventional attack. USC is 1-8 ATS in its last nine on grass, 3-11 ATS in its last 14 conference games, and Stanford is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 home games. Stanford 31, USC 21
LSU-FLORIDA under 42
Two quality defenses, and two teams with questions on offense. It's youth for the Gators, ineffectiveness for the Tigers who still haven't settled on a quarterback since the 2007 national title season. Last week Florida outgained Alabama, and held the defending champs to less than 300 yards of offense, but its young offense kept getting in the way. 11 of the last 14 meetings in this series have gone under the total, as have the Tigers' last four games. Florida 21, LSU 13
COLTS -8.5 over Chiefs
Bye week came at the right time for Kansas City, who was playing well with a 3-0 start, but this is a tough spot for a young team facing Peyton Manning come off a loss. Indianapolis 34, Kansas State 20
MICHIGAN -5 over Michigan State
Given two straight losses in this series, the dynamic Denard Robinson, the newly configured Michigan Stadium, and the Wolverines 5-0 start get ready for what should be one of the most electric home atmospheres in Ann Arbor in quite some time. This one doesn’t take a lot of analysis, because the same emotional factors that led to me taking Michigan State at home against Wisconsin last week work in Michigan’s favor this week. The favorite has covered six of the last eight in this series, and Mark Dantonio is just 3-18 in his career on the road against teams that finished 6-6 or better. After taking the over last week I am now 4-0 ATS picking Michigan games this season. Michigan 38, Michigan State 27
Best Bet—Saints -7 over CARDINALS
The defending Super Bowl champs have yet to let loose this season and this week their blitz-happy defense is facing an undrafted rookie free agent at quarterback. ‘Nuff said. Saints 31, Cardinals 14
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