SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 3
Last Week: 8-3
Overall Record: 12-9 (57% winners)
Best Bets: 2-0 (100%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Alabama-ARKANSAS under 54
Look for the Razorbacks to play emotionally, inspired defense for a while in what is the first true road game for the Crimson Tide. On the other hand, Arkansas will be limited offensively because of the quarterback situation. Alabama 31, Arkansas 14
MICHIGAN-Massachusetts over 56
The Minutemen are allowing 41 points per game so far this season, and neither Indiana nor Connecticut is as explosive as Michigan can be offense. The Wolverines are second in the Big Ten in big plays, and should get several against UMASS. I also anticipate several youngsters to play on defense, which may allow UMASS the chance to score a garbage time touchdown or two. I am 2-0 so far ATS on Michigan games this season. Michigan 49, Massachusetts 14
FLORIDA STATE -24.5 over Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons have too many wins versus Florida State the past few years, including last year. I also think the Seminoles are itching to play a real opponent after two weeks of scrubs, and Wake Forest is coming off a big, emotional instate win over North Carolina last week. Florida State 45, Wake Forest 10
TENNESSEE -3 over Florida
Vols have lost 7 straight in this series, so they have the revenge factor and the home field. Meanwhile, Gators have some key injuries on defense, and are playing their second straight road. Plus, they still don’t have a quarterback and you can’t hide your quarterback in college football (especially on the road). Tennessee 27, Florida 17
Arizona State +7.5 over MISSOURI
This is a letdown spot for the Tigers, who have to be beat up after last week’s disappointing home loss to Georgia. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils come into the game healthy and confident after solid beatdown after Illinois. Missouri 34, Arizona State 31
OHIO STATE -14.5 over California
Early kickoffs on the road for West Coast teams in either the NFL or NCAA are usually a dicey proposition, but especially for a team that has covered just 2 of its last 10 road games, and gave up 31 points at home to Southern Utah last week. Ohio State 38, California 14
North Carolina +4 over LOUISVILLE
This spread stood out to me because it doesn’t make any sense. Louisville has looked really good its first two weeks, but is barely a field goal favorite at home against the Tar Heels, who lost at home to Wake Forest in a key conference game and should be on an emotional letdown here. This is one of those “somebody knows something I don’t know†games when it looks like they’re begging you to take the other side. North Carolina 24, Louisville 23
Southern California-STANFORD over 57
13 of the last 16 meetings in this series have gone over the total, so obviously that trend pre-dates former Stanford great Andrew Luck. USC obviously has a tremendous offense, but its defense is still sorting things out and lacks depth. USC 38, Stanford 27
Best Bet—MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 over Notre Dame
This might have been the most surprising spread of the week to me, so maybe I’ll end up looking foolish. But I can’t think of a single position on the field that you can definitely say the Irish are the better team here. Not a single one. The game is in East Lansing and MSU is playing for revenge. Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 14
Last Week: 8-3
Overall Record: 12-9 (57% winners)
Best Bets: 2-0 (100%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Alabama-ARKANSAS under 54
Look for the Razorbacks to play emotionally, inspired defense for a while in what is the first true road game for the Crimson Tide. On the other hand, Arkansas will be limited offensively because of the quarterback situation. Alabama 31, Arkansas 14
MICHIGAN-Massachusetts over 56
The Minutemen are allowing 41 points per game so far this season, and neither Indiana nor Connecticut is as explosive as Michigan can be offense. The Wolverines are second in the Big Ten in big plays, and should get several against UMASS. I also anticipate several youngsters to play on defense, which may allow UMASS the chance to score a garbage time touchdown or two. I am 2-0 so far ATS on Michigan games this season. Michigan 49, Massachusetts 14
FLORIDA STATE -24.5 over Wake Forest
The Demon Deacons have too many wins versus Florida State the past few years, including last year. I also think the Seminoles are itching to play a real opponent after two weeks of scrubs, and Wake Forest is coming off a big, emotional instate win over North Carolina last week. Florida State 45, Wake Forest 10
TENNESSEE -3 over Florida
Vols have lost 7 straight in this series, so they have the revenge factor and the home field. Meanwhile, Gators have some key injuries on defense, and are playing their second straight road. Plus, they still don’t have a quarterback and you can’t hide your quarterback in college football (especially on the road). Tennessee 27, Florida 17
Arizona State +7.5 over MISSOURI
This is a letdown spot for the Tigers, who have to be beat up after last week’s disappointing home loss to Georgia. Meanwhile, the Sun Devils come into the game healthy and confident after solid beatdown after Illinois. Missouri 34, Arizona State 31
OHIO STATE -14.5 over California
Early kickoffs on the road for West Coast teams in either the NFL or NCAA are usually a dicey proposition, but especially for a team that has covered just 2 of its last 10 road games, and gave up 31 points at home to Southern Utah last week. Ohio State 38, California 14
North Carolina +4 over LOUISVILLE
This spread stood out to me because it doesn’t make any sense. Louisville has looked really good its first two weeks, but is barely a field goal favorite at home against the Tar Heels, who lost at home to Wake Forest in a key conference game and should be on an emotional letdown here. This is one of those “somebody knows something I don’t know†games when it looks like they’re begging you to take the other side. North Carolina 24, Louisville 23
Southern California-STANFORD over 57
13 of the last 16 meetings in this series have gone over the total, so obviously that trend pre-dates former Stanford great Andrew Luck. USC obviously has a tremendous offense, but its defense is still sorting things out and lacks depth. USC 38, Stanford 27
Best Bet—MICHIGAN STATE -3.5 over Notre Dame
This might have been the most surprising spread of the week to me, so maybe I’ll end up looking foolish. But I can’t think of a single position on the field that you can definitely say the Irish are the better team here. Not a single one. The game is in East Lansing and MSU is playing for revenge. Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 14
We all get it, you don't like the Deacer.....but the fact is he is just posting college football picks, and you are such a freaking baby that you can't stand that? Plus what kind of hypocrite rat keeps going to JD, and crying for someone to be banned.....yet in another thread cries that JD better not ban people when others complain about them. 
