SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 11
Last week: 6-6
Overall: 61-42 (60% winners)
Best Bets: 6-4 (60% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
GEORGIA TECH-Virginia Tech under 50
It’s mid-November, and the only team with a winning record the Hokies have defeated is Wake Forest. Georgia Tech’s last five games have gone under the total, as have the last four in this series. Virginia Tech’s defense has also had two weeks to prepare for the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option attack. Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 20
Pittsburgh -3.5 over LOUISVILLE
This is a letdown spot for the Cardinals coming off their biggest road win in years at West Virginia. Louisville has only covered 4 of its last 14 games, and the Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus teams with winning records. Pittsburgh 27, Louisville 24
IOWA +3 over Michigan State
Sparty is averaging less than 9 points per game on the road this season, and is last in the Big Ten in rushing. Michigan State also hasn’t won in Iowa City since 1989. Iowa 24, Michigan State 21
CLEMSON -19.5 over Wake Forest
Tigers have had two weeks to stew over their loss at Georgia Tech, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. On the other hand, all the trends go against the Deacons here. They’re just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 game road games. Clemson 42, Wake Forest 14
TEXAS TECH +18 over Oklahoma State
Cowboys are in the rare position of being the hunted in November, and they struggled with at home last week to Kansas State. This is their highest national profile since World War II. Since their monumental upset of Oklahoma, the Red Raiders have been on a two-week letdown. They circle the wagons here. Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 31
ILLINOIS +3 over Michigan
The Illini have scored 145 points combined the last three years against the Wolverines, and are coming off a bye following a 3-game losing streak. This is a “backs against the wall†moment for their program, and Ron Zook’s teams usually play well for him in these situations. Until I see Denard Robinson execute consistently on the road versus anybody other than Notre Dame, I have a hard time justifying going with the good guys here. I am 6-3 picking Michigan games ATS so far this season. Illinois 24, Michigan 21
Texas A&M-KANSAS STATE over 64
67% of the Aggies last 52 road games have gone over the total. 71% of K-State’s last 57 conference games have gone over the total. I’m sensing a trend. Texas A&M 38, Kansas State 34
Wisconsin-MINNESOTA over 63.5
The last 11 meetings have all gone over the total. The last 10 Big Ten games Wisconsin has played in has gone over the total. 70% of Minnesota’s conference games have gone over the total since 2008. I’m sensing a trend here. Wisconsin 45, Minnesota 24
Alabama-MISSISSIPPI STATE under 43
The under is a 66% proposition in SEC games involving Alabama since 2009, and the under is 10-3 in the Bulldogs’ last 13 games. Alabama 27, Mississippi State 10
Best Bet—Oregon-STANFORD over 65.5
Neither defense is equipped to handle the other’s offense. 11 of the Cardinal’s last 14 games have gone over the total, as have 15 of the last 21 conference games for Oregon. The last time these two teams played under the total was 2004. Stanford 42, Oregon 38
Last week: 6-6
Overall: 61-42 (60% winners)
Best Bets: 6-4 (60% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
GEORGIA TECH-Virginia Tech under 50
It’s mid-November, and the only team with a winning record the Hokies have defeated is Wake Forest. Georgia Tech’s last five games have gone under the total, as have the last four in this series. Virginia Tech’s defense has also had two weeks to prepare for the Yellow Jackets’ triple-option attack. Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 20
Pittsburgh -3.5 over LOUISVILLE
This is a letdown spot for the Cardinals coming off their biggest road win in years at West Virginia. Louisville has only covered 4 of its last 14 games, and the Panthers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 versus teams with winning records. Pittsburgh 27, Louisville 24
IOWA +3 over Michigan State
Sparty is averaging less than 9 points per game on the road this season, and is last in the Big Ten in rushing. Michigan State also hasn’t won in Iowa City since 1989. Iowa 24, Michigan State 21
CLEMSON -19.5 over Wake Forest
Tigers have had two weeks to stew over their loss at Georgia Tech, and are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games. On the other hand, all the trends go against the Deacons here. They’re just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on grass, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 game road games. Clemson 42, Wake Forest 14
TEXAS TECH +18 over Oklahoma State
Cowboys are in the rare position of being the hunted in November, and they struggled with at home last week to Kansas State. This is their highest national profile since World War II. Since their monumental upset of Oklahoma, the Red Raiders have been on a two-week letdown. They circle the wagons here. Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 31
ILLINOIS +3 over Michigan
The Illini have scored 145 points combined the last three years against the Wolverines, and are coming off a bye following a 3-game losing streak. This is a “backs against the wall†moment for their program, and Ron Zook’s teams usually play well for him in these situations. Until I see Denard Robinson execute consistently on the road versus anybody other than Notre Dame, I have a hard time justifying going with the good guys here. I am 6-3 picking Michigan games ATS so far this season. Illinois 24, Michigan 21
Texas A&M-KANSAS STATE over 64
67% of the Aggies last 52 road games have gone over the total. 71% of K-State’s last 57 conference games have gone over the total. I’m sensing a trend. Texas A&M 38, Kansas State 34
Wisconsin-MINNESOTA over 63.5
The last 11 meetings have all gone over the total. The last 10 Big Ten games Wisconsin has played in has gone over the total. 70% of Minnesota’s conference games have gone over the total since 2008. I’m sensing a trend here. Wisconsin 45, Minnesota 24
Alabama-MISSISSIPPI STATE under 43
The under is a 66% proposition in SEC games involving Alabama since 2009, and the under is 10-3 in the Bulldogs’ last 13 games. Alabama 27, Mississippi State 10
Best Bet—Oregon-STANFORD over 65.5
Neither defense is equipped to handle the other’s offense. 11 of the Cardinal’s last 14 games have gone over the total, as have 15 of the last 21 conference games for Oregon. The last time these two teams played under the total was 2004. Stanford 42, Oregon 38
