Because little breaks fall the other way. The last few years we have played on the razor edge of the W/L column. Most of our games have been close. It doesn't take much to turn a 2 point win into a 1 point loss. Thus you can be a better team but have little things go the other way and turn your fortunes.
While that is by and large true ... you still have to look at some of the key reasons why some of those games were close. Then, after identifying why some of those games were close, you then also have to identify if many/any of those factors still exist.
- In 2008 Iowa had a ton of turnovers, largely due to fumbles made by a green QB. A QB "competition" played a role here as well.
- In 2008, while Greene helped power the Iowa running game, the Iowa passing game was still largely dependent on our TE play. The WR play was rather underwhelming that year.
- In 2008, Iowa's secondary was rather exploitable due to Sash's inexperience. Furthermore, the D featured SIX, yep, count 'em SIX first year starters on defense. I'd argue that Iowa's inexperience on D contributed to why games were unduly close early in the season.
- In 2009, injuries at RB, on the OL, and to Moeaki forced the entire burden of Iowa's O on the shoulders of one Mr. Ricky Stanzi. Obviously, our hero had to learn how to adjust to the new role. And yes ... it was a new role for him. Stanzi had the benefit of having Greene shoulder a huge amount of the leadership responsibility in 2008 ... he didn't enjoy the same luxury in 2009. Stanzi felt compelled to take A LOT of risks ... and he was also forced into making many mistakes too. Consequently, Stanzi himself averaged scoring over 2 points a game for our opponents ... and yet, all the same, he still won every game that he both started and completed! Stanzi's pick 6 to Arizona made that game closer than it should have been. Stanzi's pick 6 against Arkansas State transformed a would-be Iowa blow-out to a nailbiter. Stanzi's pick 6 against Michigan made that game closer than it should have been. Stanzi's INT and then injury to Northwestern transformed a would-be Iowa blow-out into a Northwestern victory. Stanzi's pick 6 against Georgia Tech made that game closer than it should have been.
- In 2009, despite playing poorly on O, Iowa still owned MSU. MSU needed to exploit Greenwood's injury at S and resort to a perfectly executed hook and lateral in order to take the lead. "Luck" benefitted BOTH Iowa and MSU in that game ... and yet Iowa still pulled out the victory.
- In 2009, Indiana's ability to exploit Iowa's misfortune ... that is exploiting the fact that Dace was out and that BOTH Wegher and Robinson were injured and that's in addition to Greenwood being out (which was arguably an even bigger injury considering IU's passing attack) ... was what gave them their initial lead and what led the game to be closer than the score indicated. However, Iowa then proceeded to play as they were capable of playing at the end of the game and somehow pulled out the victory. I'd argue that "luck" went both ways in this game ... not just to the benefit of the Hawks.
In BOTH 2008 and 2009, Iowa arguably was on the receiving end of having bounces not go their way in the great majority of the truly close games. As I've argued above, a few of the close games in 2009 were only artificially close ... the final score being closer than the game actually was.
Are many of the above scenarios still true? I'd argue that given Iowa's current depth in the secondary and at RB ... I think that some of the "injury issues" won't necessarily be quite as prevalent. Of course, if we get dinged on the OL ... it may end up having a somewhat larger impact on our O.
Also, Stanzi has already become used to his new role. Thus, just as he dramatically reduced his number of fumbles from 2008 to 2009 ... quite similarly, it's very likely that he'll improve his decision-making when passing the ball. In addition that, Stanzi will likely find himself not feeling forced to take quite as many risks ... because, in all likelihood, Iowa's running game will pose a much more tangible threat to opposing Ds.
Execution-issues impacted the Iowa O in many respects in 2009. While Iowa was supposedly experienced on the OL ... the OL still had to contend with 3 guys who missed substantial action during fall camp ... and that invariably had a negative impact on offensive execution. Furthermore, early injuries at WR and TE (to Moeaki, DJK, and Sandeman) forced McNutt and Reisner into more prominent roles early in the season than many of us would have expected. Thus, while those guys obviously elevated their games and were impressive ... their relative inexperience still had an impact on execution.
I'd say that if the 2010 OL can remain healthy and have the group make it successfully through fall camp ... then I think that the group could potentially have FEWER issues than the 2009 OL. And, by having fewer issues, the OL could perhaps execute a little bit better ... that is, after they gel. And, at the skill spots, the Iowa O has the potential to execute much better ... even early on in the season.
