Some interesting Iowa plays/points per play stats

[JonDMiller]

Here are some leftover stats I have from my Hawk Stock series...will probably continue this series and go deeper on offense and defense in the coming months and look at these things historically as well

Draw your own conclusions...in fact, I'd be curious about how you analyze this data.

 

[ICHawk24]

Jon, one thing that I've found strange about the Iowa philosophy is they seemingly CHOOSE to run few plays and let the opposition run a lot. It seems counter to the rest of their philosophy.

 

[PCHawk]

Jon, can you show the same thing for the defense? Also how many possessions per game and points scored and allowed per possession? I think those stats would tell a lot

 

[FML]

are these conference game only stats? Playing the cream puffs we do OOC well very much skew the stats.

 

[PCHawk]

Jon, one thing that I've found strange about the Iowa philosophy is they seemingly CHOOSE to run few plays and let the opposition run a lot. It seems counter to the rest of their philosophy.

I think our philosophy is set up to minimize the number of possessions per game. If I had to guess I would say our defense probably doesn't give up a high number of plays PER GAME. I think it just looks like that because we give up a lot of plays PER POSSESSION. But I'm also guessing our opponents have fewer possessions per game so it makes the plays per game average out. I don't have stats to back this up so I could be wrong but I asked jon to look them up. If I'm right and we have fewer possessions per game then most other teams, then that explains why our offensive stats look so bad and our defensive stats look so good. It also explains why we lose to double digit underdogs so often. The fewer possessions per game means fewer chances to pull away from the weaker team

 

[BALDIES7980]

Here are some leftover stats I have from my Hawk Stock series...will probably continue this series and go deeper on offense and defense in the coming months and look at these things historically as well

Draw your own conclusions...in fact, I'd be curious about how you analyze this data.

Well the first thing I get out of those numbers is there is alot of truth to the siginficance of each posession as there is an average of one posession difference between the teams.
Iowa should therefore work alot harder at setting up a great offensive scheme to keep the ball moving and not rely on the D to save you. Statistically the D isn't going to get it done, excluding TO's on the course of a year.
I'd be curious to see Wisc. #'s offense and defense as they were excellent at long drives and the long TD occasionally. They were very good in the 3rd and 4th down category I think too.

 

[koralakers]

I think our philosophy is set up to minimize the number of possessions per game. If I had to guess I would say our defense probably doesn't give up a high number of plays PER GAME. I think it just looks like that because we give up a lot of plays PER POSSESSION. But I'm also guessing our opponents have fewer possessions per game so it makes the plays per game average out. I don't have stats to back this up so I could be wrong but I asked jon to look them up. If I'm right and we have fewer possessions per game then most other teams, then that explains why our offensive stats look so bad and our defensive stats look so good. It also explains why we lose to double digit underdogs so often. The fewer possessions per game means fewer chances to pull away from the weaker team

+1. I would love to see the stat 'possessions per game'. I wud bet we are dead last on both sides. We are dead last in plays per possession on defense.

 

[ICHawk24]

are these conference game only stats? Playing the cream puffs we do OOC well very much skew the stats.

Why do Hawk fans complain about this every year? EVERY TEAM plays lower level teams in the OOC. If anything, our two BCS OOC games are a stiffer test than most of the conference.

 

[ICHawk24]

I think our philosophy is set up to minimize the number of possessions per game. If I had to guess I would say our defense probably doesn't give up a high number of plays PER GAME. I think it just looks like that because we give up a lot of plays PER POSSESSION. But I'm also guessing our opponents have fewer possessions per game so it makes the plays per game average out. I don't have stats to back this up so I could be wrong but I asked jon to look them up. If I'm right and we have fewer possessions per game then most other teams, then that explains why our offensive stats look so bad and our defensive stats look so good. It also explains why we lose to double digit underdogs so often. The fewer possessions per game means fewer chances to pull away from the weaker team

You have a good point that we limit the possessions for both sides. But even with the limited possessions, the opposition runs a fair number of plays more than Iowa. Jon has posted these numbers in the past, I believe.

 

[PCHawk]

are these conference game only stats? Playing the cream puffs we do OOC well very much skew the stats.

Since most teams play weak non conference schedules it wouldn't affect it any more then playing a weak conference schedule vs a tough one. It would be nice to somehow compare stats against RPI but that would be impossible to do

 

[BALDIES7980]

I think our philosophy is set up to minimize the number of possessions per game. If I had to guess I would say our defense probably doesn't give up a high number of plays PER GAME. I think it just looks like that because we give up a lot of plays PER POSSESSION. But I'm also guessing our opponents have fewer possessions per game so it makes the plays per game average out. I don't have stats to back this up so I could be wrong but I asked jon to look them up. If I'm right and we have fewer possessions per game then most other teams, then that explains why our offensive stats look so bad and our defensive stats look so good. It also explains why we lose to double digit underdogs so often. The fewer possessions per game means fewer chances to pull away from the weaker team

If a person wants to have a balanced team it doesn't make sense to play bend but don't break on D.
A defensive approach where you play bend but don't break but you throw a changeup and let them play the ball and blitz to create stops and turnovers. Give them something more to plan for.
Its really not that hard. If you struggle with a certain part of the game what ever it is watch what others do and see if you can make it work to fix your problem. Its called change,. Its not a bad thing just do it in small increments and it won't seem so hard or scary.

 

[WindyCityHawkI]

Iowa's plays per game would probably be about even with everyone else if we decided to actually try to score at the end of the 1st half instead of running the clock out every time. I think we leave points on the field every game and I just do not understand why the coaches continue to do that. It is costing us games. I can't even count how many times you see other teams go in and score right before the half, but we are so scared to make a mistake, we don't even try. This mentality rubs off on the players.

 

[PCHawk]

You have a good point that we limit the possessions for both sides. But even with the limited possessions, the opposition runs a fair number of plays more than Iowa. Jon has posted these numbers in the past, I believe.

Yea I definitely agree with that I was more so talking about how doing that actually does fit with our philosophy. I think our main defensive goal it to limit the yards given up per play. Doing that makes our opponents do long time consuming drives. It also allows them to run more plays then we do. We obviously can't purposely run more plays on offense because we can't control what the defense gives us. What we can do on offense is let the play clock run down before each snap. That also helps limit the number of possessions per game

 

[BALDIES7980]

Yea I definitely agree with that I was more so talking about how doing that actually does fit with our philosophy. I think our main defensive goal it to limit the yards given up per play. Doing that makes our opponents do long time consuming drives. It also allows them to run more plays then we do. We obviously can't purposely run more plays on offense because we can't control what the defense gives us. What we can do on offense is let the play clock run down before each snap. That also helps limit the number of possessions per game

KOK is so slow getting plays in we already use most of the clock. Not sure whats so hard about picking from 1-10 for which play to try but?
We could maybe run plays that may be a little more risky and keep drives moving. That would keep the opposition off the field.

 

[PCHawk]

I think Ferentz should use the stat of how many points per possession our opponents get and use that to decide whether us or them have a better chance of getting more points per possession. If it looks like they do or if its close then he can implement his normal game plan. If it looks like we have a decisive advantage we should implement a different game plan to try to maximize the number of possessions. Snap the ball 5 to 10 seconds earlier in the play clock. That alone should get at least one extra possession. Play more aggressive defense. Have the mentality "if you're gunna score you're gunna score quick". That would get us more possessions. Of course if doing that greatly increased the amount of points per possession given up, we would have to stop doing that. But usually we would be using this strategy against inept offensives so that probably wouldn't be the case
I think doing this would probably get us an average of 1 more win per year. Think about the stat of how many games we have lost with double digit spreads. If doing this makes that stat come down to the average we would get at least 1 more win a year since 2006

 

[PCHawk]

Iowa's plays per game would probably be about even with everyone else if we decided to actually try to score at the end of the 1st half instead of running the clock out every time. I think we leave points on the field every game and I just do not understand why the coaches continue to do that. It is costing us games. I can't even count how many times you see other teams go in and score right before the half, but we are so scared to make a mistake, we don't even try. This mentality rubs off on the players.

Yea that definitely hurts. In my opinion giving that possession away is almost as bad as a turnover

 

[CAARHawk]

In other words, Lick ball?

 

[Bigtenchamp]

Iowa's plays per game would probably be about even with everyone else if we decided to actually try to score at the end of the 1st half instead of running the clock out every time. I think we leave points on the field every game and I just do not understand why the coaches continue to do that. It is costing us games. I can't even count how many times you see other teams go in and score right before the half, but we are so scared to make a mistake, we don't even try. This mentality rubs off on the players.

This is the answer to those statistics - we purposefully limit our offensive possessions through passivity towards clock management.

 

[Cover3]

I too would like to see our defensive points allowed per play rank. I've never accused the defense of being bad, but I have said that our ball control offense and the bend-but-don't-break style decrease the numbers on both sides.

 

[spudhawk]

The defensive ppp# will be low- and Iowa will have an above average ranking. Iowa was still a good red zone defense this season, and didn't give up chunks of yards it was death by a thousand cuts. The three previous seasons Iowa ranked very high in ppp. For a defense a better metric is total scoring and points per yard as well as 3rd down %. Iowa will not rank highly on third downs this season.

Somthing has been troubling me as I pored over some Iowa stats. They only scored 69 points in the first quarter, which is not good when we got the ball first in nearly every game. whether it was a function of poor gameplanning, bad execution, or bad playcalling that number has to be much higher for Iowa to be successful.