rush, pass%

[olddude]

Ok so I was doing some research and if I am wrong please let me know, and last year Iowa did this:
Pass att. 357
Rush att. 449
Rushing
A-rob 203 att. yielding 941
Coker 114 att. yielding 622
Hampton 27 att. yielding 114

With a seasoned O line and Vandy coming in, do you think the percentage changes a whole lot? I could see around upper 4's in rushing att's this year. I dont think it goes much higher than that, based on the fact KF likes to run a balanced attack.

Some food for thought, in our side of the division, Iowa and Mich St. were the only two teams that did not have their qb in the top 3 for rushing stats.
Denard had 256 att yielding 1702!! Record, 7-6 (3-5)
Persa had 164 att yielding 519 Record, 7-6 (3-5)
T-mart had 162 att yielding 965 Record, 10-4 (6-2) 2-2 top 25
Adam Weber 52 att yielding 156 Record, 3-9 (2-6)

THOUGHTS????

 

[Jonesy86]

Rushing will be a little heavier this year, at least for the first half of the season until James can prove himself.

 

[spudhawk]

Iowa's run/pass stats are nearly always 50/50 since the 2002 season if you include sacks and scrambles on called passes. The exceptions 2008 with Greene and a new QB in Stanzi, and the inexplicable 2007 season that skewed towards the pass with a green offensive line, JC6 at QB and Young and Sims (and Greene) at TB. Even the 2004 season skewed toward the run.

 

[olddude]

Iowa's run/pass stats are nearly always 50/50 since the 2002 season if you include sacks and scrambles on called passes. The exceptions 2008 with Greene and a new QB in Stanzi, and the inexplicable 2006 season that skewed towards the pass with a green offensive line, JC6 at QB and Young and Sims (and Greene) at TB. Even the 2004 season skewed toward the run.

Yeah, I know. I was more crunching numbers than anything. Just in the little bit of work I have done on it this morning, I have come up with, You cant overlook Mich St. (havent been thru thier line yet). Nebraksa has a good runner in Rex (172 att. @ 951) But that was in a conf where they ran the spread AND defended against it. Coker comes in nicely with a 115 att. @622 and people know we run the ball, even with a vet qb. Also lets not over look Mich St again with a 107 att @605.
I also find it interesting in our side of the div teams that had a running qb did not do all that well. Not that we have alot to brag about from last year, but take back all the injuries we had and look again.

 

[olddude]

Ok, so does this sound logical?
Denard had 256 att's. a number the coaches are not happy with and know thats not acceptable, but their next best option is Smith who had 136 att's and gained 601. Not bad but certainly not great numbers. Just cant see Mich turning the corner this year. They need to cut Denards att's but just dont have a really good back to help carry the load. They could go airborn more and Denard is capable, but standing and delivering is not Denards strongest point. (happy feet)

Persa had 164 att's. Again I think thats a little high and puts the qb at to much risk, I think after last year they know that. Next best option Trumpy 116 att's and gained 530. Again not horrible, but not good either. Only option here is to stay with the same game plan and hope Persa stays healthy. No really good backs to help him out, he has to win with his arm/legs.

Weber is gone, but their numbers were so bad I didnt spend to much time on them.

T-mart had 163 att's. About the same as Northwestern, EXCEPT the next best option Rex 172 att's gained 951. Pretty good number. In the B10 I think his att's and yards go up but not equally. Also he is their only proven back and we know all to well that might not work out for them so well. I dont think Bo wants to risk T-mart, but I dont think he changes much. He might keep T-mart more protected (less att's) and give the ball to Rex more but all in all they ran the ball 360 times between two backs and passed only 282, so they rushed quite a bit without T-mart. T-mart is not known for his arm.

I dont even want to tell you what I came up with for Mich St.

Iowa, lets just say we have ALOT to prove. The O line is good, we have a few options at back, what we are going to need is for Vandy to be a total shocker and be way better than anyone expected (which I think he can be). It was hard to come up with a "number" on us because of our back situation last year and a new qb this year. You know our game plan wont change much and I expect Coker to put up over a thou easy. Again he's our horse, and you cant bet it all on one player. Although I think Iowa understands the importance of rb's more than Nebraska and will easy have more depth there.

I can see Mich St putting up pretty good points this year, followed by us, then Nebraska. It might get scewed a bit because in all reality we should be able to hang some good numbers this year on several of our opponents.

 

[treychase]

Iowa's run/pass stats are nearly always 50/50 since the 2002 season if you include sacks and scrambles on called passes. The exceptions 2008 with Greene and a new QB in Stanzi, and the inexplicable 2007 season that skewed towards the pass with a green offensive line, JC6 at QB and Young and Sims (and Greene) at TB. Even the 2004 season skewed toward the run.

Iowa wants a 60-40 run-pass balance, not 50-50.

 

[spudhawk]

Iowa wants a 60-40 run-pass balance, not 50-50.

The numbers over the last 10 years don't show that. If anything if you take away scrambles and sacks from the rushing attempts and add them passing attempts Iowa has been closer to 60/40 pass/ run. Iowa would love to never throw a pass in the 4th quarter but the facts are that Iowa is basically a balanced team.

 

[treychase]

The numbers over the last 10 years don't show that. If anything if you take away scrambles and sacks from the rushing attempts and add them passing attempts Iowa has been closer to 60/40 pass/ run. Iowa would love to never throw a pass in the 4th quarter but the facts are that Iowa is basically a balanced team.

Yes, the numbers do show that.
In fact, they show that the closer Iowa is to 50-50 the worse they are, with 2004 as the exception & even 2009 was an exception.
2002, Iowa ran over 63% of the time.
2008, with Greene Iowa ran over 61% of the time
2007, a "bad" year, Iowa ran 53% of the time.
This past season, which was disappointing...55.7% were runs.

This is the single most reliable stat in determining Iowa's success.
This isn't just reliable in total, its reliable even when its broken down to first 3 quarters.

 

[spudhawk]

Those stats can be significantly misleading- Iowa didn't call 63% of run plays- several were scrambles that went for solid gains- not called QB draws etc. Sacks also count against rushing attempts. The true ratio in nearly every season is 50%+ passes called. Also 2002 the yardage total for rushing and passing yardage was 40 yards apart 2734 passing/ 2784 rushing. That offense will never be equaled again and that year should be thrown out when looking at regular results/ expectations.

 

[treychase]

Those stats can be significantly misleading- Iowa didn't call 63% of run plays- several were scrambles that went for solid gains- not called QB draws etc. Sacks also count against rushing attempts. The true ratio in nearly every season is 50%+ passes called. Also 2002 the yardage total for rushing and passing yardage was 40 yards apart 2734 passing/ 2784 rushing. That offense will never be equaled again and that year should be thrown out when looking at regular results/ expectations.

Not talking about yardage totals.
I am talking about % of plays called/ran.
I do understand that game circumstances play a large part in this but if all things equal, Iowa wants a 60-40 run-pass balance. Pretty sure KOK has stated as much.

 

[olddude]

Yes, the numbers do show that.
In fact, they show that the closer Iowa is to 50-50 the worse they are, with 2004 as the exception & even 2009 was an exception.
2002, Iowa ran over 63% of the time.
2008, with Greene Iowa ran over 61% of the time
2007, a "bad" year, Iowa ran 53% of the time.
This past season, which was disappointing...55.7% were runs.

This is the single most reliable stat in determining Iowa's success.
This isn't just reliable in total, its reliable even when its broken down to first 3 quarters.

Is this true? As far as the past goes anyway.

 

[treychase]

Is this true? As far as the past goes anyway.

YES

Just go back to the last game they played & WON...mizzou...
First 3qts 28 runs & 17 passes (62.2% run)
Game total 37 runs & 21 passes (63.7% run)

Last game they lost...minny...
First 3qts 20 runs & 17 passes (54.1% run)
Game total 27 runs & 22 passes (55.1% run)

I believe Indiana was the only game Iowa won last season that this doesn't hold true. And we all know how close Iowa was to losing & the entire season would have held true to this.

 

[MoseSchrute]

Although I think Iowa understands the importance of rb's more than Nebraska and will easy have more depth there.

They will tell you they have 3 or 4 stars in waiting behind Burkhead.

 

[olddude]

YES

Just go back to the last game they played & WON...mizzou...
First 3qts 28 runs & 17 passes (62.2% run)
Game total 37 runs & 21 passes (63.7% run)

Last game they lost...minny...
First 3qts 20 runs & 17 passes (54.1% run)
Game total 27 runs & 22 passes (55.1% run)

I believe Indiana was the only game Iowa won last season that this doesn't hold true. And we all know how close Iowa was to losing & the entire season would have held true to this.

To be honest, my brain is strained the way it is and I still have 4 more teams to go. It's a very interesting thought and will keep it in mind from now on and see how it works out. Thanks. Some people dont get some of the numbers, but I agree, numbers do have a story to tell. There may not always be rhyme or reason behind what I have tried to post, but that is from lack of ability to express it, not because it is not broken down and weighed.

 

[olddude]

They will tell you they have 3 or 4 stars in waiting behind Burkhead.

Yeah you will find over here, we dont beleive in the "star" system to much.
I am not even sure how those people can get paid for that work. Kinda reminds me of the weatherman. Or did you mean "stars" as in studs?