Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now as

HaydenHawk56

HaydenHawk56

Well-Known Member
a 11-12 win range team comfortably (before Big Ten Tourney). They would be firmly in the NCAA tourney. Could be a 5-7 seed. Provided they stay healthy.

Already Won
Michigan St
at Purdue

Likely Wins
Nebraska
at Rutgers
Northwestern
Penn St
Minnesota
at Penn St
Wisconsin

I put a 90% win rate on the above teams. These are the must win games as they should be wins without having to depend on the game below to make it in. We probably lose 1 one of these. At Penn St could be the goat if I were to make a guess. 6 more wins

Toss Ups
Michigan
Purdue
at Illinois
Indiana

The toss ups look good as most of them are at home. I think Iowa gets 3 of these. 3 more wins.


Likely Losses
at Michigan St
at Indiana
at Ohio St
at Michigan
at Maryland

There is at least a win or two in there. Let's just say 1 more win.

Looks really good to get into the Big Dance and that looks like the floor at this point. They have come some ways from that D2 exhibition loss. Thought this team was headed for the NIT. Just keep improving and stay healthy and hungry.
 
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Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

Ohio State is not that great. They've already lost to some mediocre teams at home this year. I'd put that game in the toss-up category. At Michigan and at Indiana are also definitely winnable though likely loss is still probably the right category.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

KenPom is predicting 13-5 in the Big Ten for Iowa
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

12-6 in Big Ten puts Hawks at 21-9 overall pre BTT, one or two wins in BTT---4 seed
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

I said before the season that this was a NCAA team, this was never a "bubble team". They will match or exceed the 12 wins from last year, and be a better seed in the tourney as well, as the RPI is much, much better this year.

The Hawks have a real shot at winning the B1G this year, but I don't want to get too far down that rabbit hole yet, but if you look at Fran's teams since he got here, they have all (Sans the year his son was diagnosed with cancer) gotten better throughout the year. They have all gotten better from one year to the next as well, and this is Fran's best team to date. They are just rounding into form, and I think this team has shown they are better than they were early in the year. Iowa has found two key guys off the bench in Uhl and Baer, that have really rounded out this team.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

If Iowa wants to win the B1G, they can only afford at most 4 losses. Michigan State will be there with Valentine and no one it seems can freaking beat Maryland. We're going to have to win at least one game on the road against those teams to win the title.

I hope that Iowa can get a high enough seed to play in Des Moines in the dance.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

Iowa caught michigan state at the right time. That's for sure. Valentine plans on coming back for the Penn state game so he will probably still be slightly limited going into the iowa game. If iowa ever had dreams of sweeping a season series against the Spartans this would be the year. Sparty looked awful against the lowly gophers.

I'd like to see Fran actually win a BTT game for once in a few years
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

At Indiana, Ohio state and michigan are winnable. Kenpom had the purdue game as our toughest game remaining of the season, only gave us a 22 percent chance of winning.

We can win every game remaining (we scored 50 in a half on one of the top defenses in the country and out scored them by 24 in a half at their place) Iowa has dominated great teams at times. With these two wins I'd say they can compete for the title and getting a 5-7 seed would be disappointing. I this team could be a 3 or a 4 seed. Too bad they couldn't close out a couple more of those non con losses.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

bcl20 said:
At Indiana, Ohio state and michigan are winnable. Kenpom had the purdue game as our toughest game remaining of the season, only gave us a 22 percent chance of winning.

We can win every game remaining (we scored 50 in a half on one of the top defenses in the country and out scored them by 24 in a half at their place) Iowa has dominated great teams at times. With these two wins I'd say they can compete for the title and getting a 5-7 seed would be disappointing. I this team could be a 3 or a 4 seed. Too bad they couldn't close out a couple more of those non con losses.
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I was alluding to 5-7 seed (comfortably in the Tourney), 11-12 win range (pre BTT), as the floor at this point. The ceiling certainly can be higher.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

Two great resume wins yes. But way, way, way too early for such talk.
Lets get back together again in Feb.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

Agreed. But I like what I see so far...
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

deanvogs said:
I said before the season that this was a NCAA team, this was never a "bubble team". They will match or exceed the 12 wins from last year, and be a better seed in the tourney as well, as the RPI is much, much better this year.

The Hawks have a real shot at winning the B1G this year, but I don't want to get too far down that rabbit hole yet, but if you look at Fran's teams since he got here, they have all (Sans the year his son was diagnosed with cancer) gotten better throughout the year. They have all gotten better from one year to the next as well, and this is Fran's best team to date. They are just rounding into form, and I think this team has shown they are better than they were early in the year. Iowa has found two key guys off the bench in Uhl and Baer, that have really rounded out this team.
Click to expand...


I would add that this years team is also legitimately "tough." At MSU is going to be interesting to see if this teams mental toughness is a match for MSU's. Izzo basically called his team a bunch of wussies after we beat them. MSU then completely smothered Illinois.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

HawkAssassin said:
If Iowa wants to win the B1G, they can only afford at most 4 losses. Michigan State will be there with Valentine and no one it seems can freaking beat Maryland. We're going to have to win at least one game on the road against those teams to win the title.

I hope that Iowa can get a high enough seed to play in Des Moines in the dance.
Click to expand...

The thing I've noticed about MD is that they are streaky and that they don't necessarily play 40 minutes. I've watched several of their games and they don't seem like a lockdown defensive team for 40 minutes and if Iowa plays their best defense, we can stymie their offense. Having said that, Diamond Stone is a monster inside and they have shooters. I would count MD as a loss, but an upset is possible if we come to play.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

ArvadaHawk said:
I would add that this years team is also legitimately "tough." At MSU is going to be interesting to see if this teams mental toughness is a match for MSU's. Izzo basically called his team a bunch of wussies after we beat them. MSU then completely smothered Illinois.
Click to expand...

It will be interesting to see how Iowa does with such a long layoff, and heading to MSU. I actually expect Iowa to get spanked pretty good on Thursday. I just don't see that layoff as being a good thing for the team.

That said, I think Iowa can lose 4 games and win the B1G. I really don't want to start looking too hard at that though and our chances until we get about 1/2 way through the season.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

I have a feeling it's gonna get very frustrating the next few weeks and see Hawks losing 4, possibly 5 of the next 10 (at MSU, Purdue, at Maryland, other 1 or 2 losses between NwU, at Illannoy, at Indy). Add in other challenges - at OSU, at Michigan -- plus the 1 unacceptable loss that is an inherent obligation of being Iowa (at PSU?) and Iowa could quickly go from contender to 10 seed.

I'm impressed by the noticeable increase in intensity and toughness since conference play started and surprised at the level of consistency on offense. Yet, it's exactly these two factors that, historically, have been most tenuous for Iowa and lead me to expect a drop off at some point (cold shooting, Baer hitting the wall, Clemmons / Mikey getting flakey, Uthoff disappearing).

Fortunately, Hawks earned some gravy with MSU & Purdue W's and should win a minimum of 11 B14 games.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

ArvadaHawk said:
The thing I've noticed about MD is that they are streaky and that they don't necessarily play 40 minutes. I've watched several of their games and they don't seem like a lockdown defensive team for 40 minutes and if Iowa plays their best defense, we can stymie their offense. Having said that, Diamond Stone is a monster inside and they have shooters. I would count MD as a loss, but an upset is possible if we come to play.
Click to expand...
I don't think I could disagree anymore on the impact of Stone, but it's natural considering his hype that people would be high on him. I don't even think he's their best big man as I prefer Carter to Stone. Neither should really be a huge problem for Uthoff or Woody.

Take away Trimble's passing angles = In Heaven There Is No Beer.
 
Re: Quick glance at Big Ten schedule again, after these 2 wins I could see Iowa now a

As we all know, during the BIG conference games, you play 5 teams twice and 8 teams once.

AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, 6 of Iowa's 1-game opponents are in the bottom half of the conference. Another 1-game opponent, OSU, is currently in the top half, but I have a feeling that they are going to slide down.

Four of the 5 teams that they play twice are in the top half. And our 1 game against MD is on the road. Fortunately, it appears that this team has the mental toughness to handle this rough schedule.
 
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