Projecting Iowa's 2011 Offensive Stats

[JonDMiller]

by Patrick Webb
HN.com Contributor

I want to take a stab at the numbers Iowa will produce on offense as a team, the factors that are impacting my projections and what Ferentz era team I think this offense will most resemble. On the offensive side of the ball Iowa loses QB Ricky Stanzi coming off one of the best statistical seasons ever for an Iowa QB (Ferentz Era), most likely second only to Brad Banks 2002 season, OG Julian Vandervelde, WRs DJK, Paul Chaney and Colin Sandeman, TE Allen Reisner, and FB Brett Morse to graduation. Iowa will also be without Jewel Hampton and most likely Adam Robinson. You can see how I did last season at this link.

I am projecting Iowa to score 323 points on offense- that means 38 TDs with no missed XPs and 19 field goals. Iowa has the chance to put up 30+ points on against seven opponents this season- Tennessee Tech, ISU, Pittsburgh, Louisiana- Monroe, Indiana, Michigan, and Minnesota. Iowa could struggle against Penn State, Michigan State and Nebraska given their place on the schedule. PSU returns a lot of talent to the defensive side of the ball and will likely have a much better offense than the team Iowa faced last year. MSU and Nebraska both have solid defensive lines and will have had the entire season to gel and replace their losses on the defensive side of the ball.
Reasons for confidence: Offensive line returns talented returning starters at both tackles and center, also has depth at the guard positions with capable players MacMillan, Gettis and Bofelli battling for starting spots. Smooth QB transition from Stanzi to Vandenberg- JVB has some key playing experience and heads into the season knowing job is his. Talent at skill positions- Coker, McNutt, Davis and Herman all saw a lot of snaps last season and Iowa is loaded at the TE position.

Reasons for pessimism: Depth at key positions- QB, TB, FB, OT, and WR. I wasn’t impressed with Wienke in the spring, and felt that Derby should be neck and neck for the right to back up Vandenberg. Coker doesn’t have a clear cut back up and that will likely mean Iowa must trust a True Freshman with the ball early, something they have been reluctant to do- see Coker and Wegher- even Robinson (Red shirt) in the 2009 season. Iowa has no clear option at Tackle spots beyond Reiff and Zusevics. The second team struggled with the outside edge in the spring day and although they have options (moving MacMillan outside or improved play by the second unit) this could be problematic given the issues Iowa had after injuries to both Gettis and MacMillan at guard last season. And finally receiving corps- there is certainly talent at this position but someone needs to emerge at the 3rd and 4th positions in case of injury to either McNutt or Davis. Sandeman didn’t catch a ton of balls in his career but had several key 3rd down conversions over the last 2 seasons and shined in the last two bowl games. KMM, Shumpert, Staggs, or a relatively unknown will have to step up in case of injuries and on third downs.

One last reason for pessimism- nearly all of Iowa’s effective offensive teams have had a strong defense- Two exceptions 2002 and 2006. That 2002 offense was once in a generation, possibly a complete fluke. It was KOK’s and Ferentz’s wet dream as far as balance goes- 2734 passing yards with 27 passing TDs and 2784 yards rushing with 24 rushing TDs. 2006’s offensive unit was plagued by turnovers, lack of quality receivers and key injuries along the offensive line as well as a defense that struggled in key spots giving up 30+ points over 3 games. Iowa is also replacing an incredible punter and struggled with special teams throughout the season last year. Iowa must have an improved special team units and a consistent kicker to match these numbers.

Now for the Meat:

(Click on the link below to see the stat projections, as they did not line up correctly pasting them here on the boards)

Projection: 2011 Offensive Stats | Hawkeye Nation

 

[spudhawk]

Here is the link from last season: Early Picks: Iowa’s 2010 Stats | Hawkeye Nation

 

[olddude]

I like it!!!. Very good and well thought out. I will however give one more stat, you can throw it in the reason for hope part.
"Iowa is coming off a 31-30 loss to Wisconsin, it marked only the fourth time that Iowa has lost under Kirk Ferentz when scoring 30 or more points. Prior to Saturday, the last loss when scoring 30+ points was against Iowa State in 2002, ending a streak of 41 consecutive victories when scoring 30+ points. Since 1999, Iowa is 47-4 when scoring 30+ points"

 

[trj]

I just skimmed through the projections didn't read everything thoroughly. Just a couple of quick thoughts:


McNutt won't get a 1000 yds. receiving. Wasn't Kasper the last guy to do it? He caught a trillion bubble screen passes to do it.


I think the offense will be ran similar to '08 and the Insight bowl. Passing attempts per game in the low 20's and the season passing yardage in the low 2000's.
I think 2012 will be JVB's year statistically.

Coker's numbers are about right I feel. He might even break the 1600 yd. barrier.

 

[Ronco]

I wouldn't be surprised to see McNutt eclipse 1000 yards receiving.
Davis coming in at 600+ is a bit optimistic. Anything around 500 would be sweet.
Coker getting 1500+ also seems a bit optimistic. Anything over 1200 would be gravy.
I hope we find a capable number two at RB that can finish with ~500.
JVB getting 17-7 seems about right. Some reason I can see 20-10 here.
I hope his yards rushing are ~-25. Means he's running some. Positive yards would be awesome.
I wonder if Staggs doesn't settle in as the number three. Maybe KVM, but I doubt it.
My guess is Staggs will return punts or ends up there. Need to stick with our tradition of tall, white PR A good punt return is one that doesn't end in a fumble or penalty.
I would love to see CJF or any TE go for 15+ a reception.
Love to see Rogers healthy and getting a few touches a game.

 

[trj]

I wouldn't be surprised to see McNutt eclipse 1000 yards receiving.
Davis coming in at 600+ is a bit optimistic. Anything around 500 would be sweet.
Coker getting 1500+ also seems a bit optimistic. Anything over 1200 would be gravy.
I hope we find a capable number two at RB that can finish with ~500.
JVB getting 17-7 seems about right. Some reason I can see 20-10 here.
I hope his yards rushing are ~-25. Means he's running some. Positive yards would be awesome.
I wonder if Staggs doesn't settle in as the number three. Maybe KVM, but I doubt it.
My guess is Staggs will return punts or ends up there. Need to stick with our tradition of tall, white PR A good punt return is one that doesn't end in a fumble or penalty.
I would love to see CJF or any TE go for 15+ a reception.
Love to see Rogers healthy and getting a few touches a game.

Mcnutt won't get 1000 yds. receiving. Only 2 guys have done it at Iowa, Kasper out of necessity and Kieth(not Dave) Chappelle. I probably should look this up before I hit submit, but oh well.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Mcnutt won't get 1000 yds. receiving. Only 2 guys have done it at Iowa, Kasper out of necessity and Kieth(not Dave) Chappelle. I probably should look this up before I hit submit, but oh well.

I think that you can only look so much into past precedent under DIFFERENT coaches. Under Ferentz, we've had:

Kasper ('00) - 1010 yards
Hill ('01) - 841
Brown ('02) - 966
Solomon ('04) - 905
McNutt ('10) - 861

We obviously had a bit of a "slide" at the WR spot from '06 to '08. However, a big part of that slide is attributable to massive attrition and/or injury at the WR position. Young WRs are only so reliable.

Aside from that slide ... I think that Iowa fans should actually be pleasantly surprised that we've had a good number of WRs who've been awful close to being 1000 yard contributers.

I think that Iowa has a pretty decent group of WRs now. Furthermore, the group is now benefitting from the tutelage of Soup. Although it's only my opinion ... but I think that it's only a matter of time until Iowa starts to produce 1000+ yard WRs on a more consistent basis. And FWIW, I think that McNutt and Keenan Davis are going to be guys who very well will "kick-off" the new precedent for us!

 

[trj]

I think that you can only look so much into past precedent under DIFFERENT coaches. Under Ferentz, we've had:

Kasper ('00) - 1010 yards
Hill ('01) - 841
Brown ('02) - 966
Solomon ('04) - 905
McNutt ('10) - 861

We obviously had a bit of a "slide" at the WR spot from '06 to '08. However, a big part of that slide is attributable to massive attrition and/or injury at the WR position. Young WRs are only so reliable.

Aside from that slide ... I think that Iowa fans should actually be pleasantly surprised that we've had a good number of WRs who've been awful close to being 1000 yard contributers.

I think that Iowa has a pretty decent group of WRs now. Furthermore, the group is now benefitting from the tutelage of Soup. Although it's only my opinion ... but I think that it's only a matter of time until Iowa starts to produce 1000+ yard WRs on a more consistent basis. And FWIW, I think that McNutt and Keenan Davis are going to be guys who very well will "kick-off" the new precedent for us!

You might be right, but it won't be Mcnutt and it won't be 2011. I have a hard time seeing McNutt catching 70+ passes this year. He might have a nice ypc, but it will not be enough to push him past the 1000 yd. barrier. Double digit TD(s)? Yes. Big plays? Absolutely. The routine stuff is where I have issues, route running, make tough catches in traffic will prevent him from getting a 1000 yds. Imo, he is still not a polished wr .....he is just a guy getting by because of his athletic ability.

 

[Ronco]

I know history is against McNutt eclipsing 1000. 70+ catches is also a bit aggressive. I would think more realistic numbers, after 2nd thought, would be 60ish for 900. However if McNutt becomes our only reliable receiver and/or JVB only looks his way (QB can be prone to this), then those numbers could happen.

 

[WinOneThisCentury]

You might be right, but it won't be Mcnutt and it won't be 2011. I have a hard time seeing McNutt catching 70+ passes this year. He might have a nice ypc, but it will not be enough to push him past the 1000 yd. barrier. Double digit TD(s)? Yes. Big plays? Absolutely. The routine stuff is where I have issues, route running, make tough catches in traffic will prevent him from getting a 1000 yds. Imo, he is still not a polished wr .....he is just a guy getting by because of his athletic ability.

I'm not sure what you were watching at the end of the year, but McNutt is pretty solid in all phases and can make the big play when it presents itself. This is a big body with great hands...and the fact that JVB is much more accurate on the timing patterns and stop routes, I honestly don't think 70 is out of the question.

My take on Iowa's offense is that you will see ball control, and a short, accurate, move the chains passing game that will be much more effective than 2010. When defenses adjust, we will stretch the field.

Two reasons that McNutt has a shot at 70 catches...DJk is gone and JVB is more accurate and will throw the out routes better than Stanzi. I think we can live on that capability. Everyone keeps talking about whether he can throw over the linebackers and in front of the safeties...well, I'm not sure he will have to do that very much. With CJ and Herman, and what I would call two huge, big body receivers, you will see short, body position routes to move the chains. We are going to wear teams down IMO as their D will be on the field a lot longer.

This team could average 32 points a game if we stay healthy. JVB is much more polished and knows the offense better than Stanzi did in 2008. He will give KOK many more options than Stanzi did in his first year starting. I'm excited to see how good this team can be offensively.

 

[tm3308]

I'm not sure what you were watching at the end of the year, but McNutt is pretty solid in all phases and can make the big play when it presents itself. This is a big body with great hands...and the fact that JVB is much more accurate on the timing patterns and stop routes, I honestly don't think 70 is out of the question.

My take on Iowa's offense is that you will see ball control, and a short, accurate, move the chains passing game that will be much more effective than 2010. When defenses adjust, we will stretch the field.

Two reasons that McNutt has a shot at 70 catches...DJk is gone and JVB is more accurate and will throw the out routes better than Stanzi. I think we can live on that capability. Everyone keeps talking about whether he can throw over the linebackers and in front of the safeties...well, I'm not sure he will have to do that very much. With CJ and Herman, and what I would call two huge, big body receivers, you will see short, body position routes to move the chains. We are going to wear teams down IMO as their D will be on the field a lot longer.

This team could average 32 points a game if we stay healthy. JVB is much more polished and knows the offense better than Stanzi did in 2008. He will give KOK many more options than Stanzi did in his first year starting. I'm excited to see how good this team can be offensively.

I'm with trj regarding McNutt right now. He's got terrific hands, and makes the big plays. But I'm not sure about his route-running and ability over the middle. Now it's not like we sent DJK over the middle a lot, either. So that may not be as big of an issue. But DJK was one of the best route runners that we've had under Ferentz. That had an awful lot to do with his ability to get open. Watching him run a double move was a thing of beauty. I'm not sure that McNutt has that yet. If/when he does get there, he will skyrocket.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

You might be right, but it won't be Mcnutt and it won't be 2011. I have a hard time seeing McNutt catching 70+ passes this year. He might have a nice ypc, but it will not be enough to push him past the 1000 yd. barrier. Double digit TD(s)? Yes. Big plays? Absolutely. The routine stuff is where I have issues, route running, make tough catches in traffic will prevent him from getting a 1000 yds. Imo, he is still not a polished wr .....he is just a guy getting by because of his athletic ability.

Iowa's O isn't built off the NEED to get a single WR that many touches. Rather, most of our big play WRs who have had the impressive production are guys who exploited the success of our running game. The play-action pass opens up the opportunity for our big-play WRs to have VERY HIGH yards per reception. With just a 17 yard per reception average, McNutt would be able to hit 1000 yards on just 59 receptions.

Anyhow, I agree that McNutt isn't yet a polished WR. However, isn't that the exciting part? You don't think that he'll put in the work to make continued improvement? From everything I've ever heard about Marvin, he's a guy who has A LOT of leadership characteristics .... and furthermore, he's not a guy who is afraid to work.

 

[spudhawk]

The reasons I project McNutt to have so many catches is his size, Vandenberg's arm, and how successful I think the running game will be. When Iowa was rolling last season they had a ton of 3rd and 3-5 yard conversion attempts. McNutt is an ideal box out target, is better with the ball than many realize and Iowa will be facing many, many short corners. If Iowa's TEs are as dangerous as I expect, Vandenberg, Coker and the line stay relatively healthy and Iowa works on the passing game early in the season he could easily exceed these numbers.

McNutts avg. last season was 16.2 and his career is 17.6. I could see him having less explosive plays and more 5-10 yard catches. From what I have seen of Vandenberg he reads the defense very quick (possibly as fast as Tate), has the arm strength and the accuracy on the outside to throw in tight windows, and has the ball skills to be nearly as effective as Stanzi on P/A.

I really didn't expect McNutt's numbers to be controversial for this article. McNutt had 861 yards last season on 53 catches. He had only 4 catches in the first two games last season. I expect him to nearly double that production as I think Iowa will emphasize the passing game in the first game and could exploit ISU for big gains in the passing game via playaction. McNutt's stretch vs. the Big 10 was 41 catches for 616 yards. DJK and Reisner were far more productive in the OOC compared to McNutt. I also expect improvement from McNutt in this off season. If McNutt plays all 13 games there should be little doubt he will exceed 1000 yards this season.

 

[trj]

The reasons I project McNutt to have so many catches is his size, Vandenberg's arm, and how successful I think the running game will be. When Iowa was rolling last season they had a ton of 3rd and 3-5 yard conversion attempts. McNutt is an ideal box out target, is better with the ball than many realize and Iowa will be facing many, many short corners. If Iowa's TEs are as dangerous as I expect, Vandenberg, Coker and the line stay relatively healthy and Iowa works on the passing game early in the season he could easily exceed these numbers.

McNutts avg. last season was 16.2 and his career is 17.6. I could see him having less explosive plays and more 5-10 yard catches. From what I have seen of Vandenberg he reads the defense very quick (possibly as fast as Tate), has the arm strength and the accuracy on the outside to throw in tight windows, and has the ball skills to be nearly as effective as Stanzi on P/A.

I really didn't expect McNutt's numbers to be controversial for this article. McNutt had 861 yards last season on 53 catches. He had only 4 catches in the first two games last season. I expect him to nearly double that production as I think Iowa will emphasize the passing game in the first game and could exploit ISU for big gains in the passing game via playaction. McNutt's stretch vs. the Big 10 was 41 catches for 616 yards. DJK and Reisner were far more productive in the OOC compared to McNutt. I also expect improvement from McNutt in this off season. If McNutt plays all 13 games there should be little doubt he will exceed 1000 yards this season.

A few thoughts here:

It's May and the Cubs are already done and I am pretty much tapped out with the greatest music video/song threads so I do not mind engaging in this debate.


Unless you are in a pass happy, chuck the ball all over the field type of offense 70+ catches and 1000 yds. is a big number, a very big number for collegiate wr. McNutt is more than capable of putting up that production, but if Coker is getting 25+ carries a game and Herman, Davis, CJ all step up the opportunities just won't be there.

Everyone's big assumption that JVB won't have any growing pains.

2 of the 4 OCC games McNutt will be forced to shut it down early because of the score. Against Pitt and ISU I am on the complete opposite page I see a whole lot of Marcus Coker, JVB's attempts in the low 20's, which means Mcnutt will catch a total of 8 or 9 passes in those two games.

Instead of 4 occ catches it goes up to 10 maybe 12, if your assumption is correct if he is catching more of the 5-10 yds. type stuff then his numbers are not going to go up that much.

 

[trj]

Iowa's O isn't built off the NEED to get a single WR that many touches. Rather, most of our big play WRs who have had the impressive production are guys who exploited the success of our running game. The play-action pass opens up the opportunity for our big-play WRs to have VERY HIGH yards per reception. With just a 17 yard per reception average, McNutt would be able to hit 1000 yards on just 59 receptions.

Anyhow, I agree that McNutt isn't yet a polished WR. However, isn't that the exciting part? You don't think that he'll put in the work to make continued improvement? From everything I've ever heard about Marvin, he's a guy who has A LOT of leadership characteristics .... and furthermore, he's not a guy who is afraid to work.

Not questioning the work ethic or the talent, basing it on what my eyeballs tell me and 11 years of precedent set by KOK/KF. One receiver getting that many touches in this offense I just don't see it.

 

[trj]

I'm not sure what you were watching at the end of the year, but McNutt is pretty solid in all phases and can make the big play when it presents itself. This is a big body with great hands...and the fact that JVB is much more accurate on the timing patterns and stop routes, I honestly don't think 70 is out of the question.

My take on Iowa's offense is that you will see ball control, and a short, accurate, move the chains passing game that will be much more effective than 2010. When defenses adjust, we will stretch the field.

Two reasons that McNutt has a shot at 70 catches...DJk is gone and JVB is more accurate and will throw the out routes better than Stanzi. I think we can live on that capability. Everyone keeps talking about whether he can throw over the linebackers and in front of the safeties...well, I'm not sure he will have to do that very much. With CJ and Herman, and what I would call two huge, big body receivers, you will see short, body position routes to move the chains. We are going to wear teams down IMO as their D will be on the field a lot longer.

This team could average 32 points a game if we stay healthy. JVB is much more polished and knows the offense better than Stanzi did in 2008. He will give KOK many more options than Stanzi did in his first year starting. I'm excited to see how good this team can be offensively.

Double digit TD(s): yes.
Big Plays: If healthy a given.

I get McNutt is 6'4 215 lbs. and has meat hooks for hands, but I need to see more consistency not just assume it will happen.

I love JVB's upside, but there will be growing pains. It is a little worrisome that everyone thinks the transition from Stanzi to JVB will automatically be a smooth one.

I apologize to everyone I will figure out how to respond to multiple posts/qotes in a single post later on this summer.