Probability

J

Jonesy86

Well-Known Member
So what do you suppose the probability is of this team surprising EVERYONE, overcoming the difficulty of so much coaching attrition and going 12-0 and winning the Champ game?

I don't really think this will happen, but it's nice to dream about it. Personally I think the odds are about 1/100. But about 1/50 in winning the champ game but not having a perfect record. And maybe 1/20 in even getting to the champ game.
 
We aren't going 12-0

But I think a 2-3 loss season, Champ Game appearance, BCS Bowl is a real possibility.
 
Yeah, I dont think we are going to win out, but I do think we are in for a better treat than just a dilly bar next you
 
Jonesy86 said:
So what do you suppose the probability is of this team surprising EVERYONE, overcoming the difficulty of so much coaching attrition and going 12-0 and winning the Champ game?

I don't really think this will happen, but it's nice to dream about it. Personally I think the odds are about 1/100. But about 1/50 in winning the champ game but not having a perfect record. And maybe 1/20 in even getting to the champ game.
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I don't know if you are talking about the B1G championship game or the National Championship. They would be 13-0 and win the B1G champ or 14-0 and win the National Title.
I don't think it matters which one you are talking about, because it's virtually a lock to happen.
 
slim to none. Closer to none.

however, the new life we could have by changing up things on offense may cause some problems on preping for us.
 
Jonesy86 said:
So what do you suppose the probability is of this team surprising EVERYONE, overcoming the difficulty of so much coaching attrition and going 12-0 and winning the Champ game?

I don't really think this will happen, but it's nice to dream about it. Personally I think the odds are about 1/100. But about 1/50 in winning the champ game but not having a perfect record. And maybe 1/20 in even getting to the champ game.
Click to expand...

OP are you talking National Champ game? Odds of going 12-0 and winning National Champ game next season, wow I bet vegas gives those more at 1 in 10,000 odds.

Iowa hasnt had a perfect season since 1920 or so.

I think our coaching staff is better now but we are totally rebuilding the defensive line and we have zero proven running backs coming back.

How can you say 1-50 or 1 in a 100?
 
Igothawked said:
I don't know if you are talking about the B1G championship game or the National Championship. They would be 13-0 and win the B1G champ or 14-0 and win the National Title.
I don't think it matters which one you are talking about, because it's virtually a lock to happen.
Click to expand...

You have the hawks as even money to virtually lock in a national champ game win? WOW!!!
 
I'm lazy and didn't feel like typing B1G Champ game, so that is what I meant. Because even if we go 13-0 there's no guarantee we'd go to the national championship game. So I was taking the bowl game out of the equation..

I don't think 1/20 in going to B1G Champ game is totally crazy, I mean there's essentially a 1/6 assuming all teams have an equal chance.. But let's face it I was just throwing out some numbers. I don't think it'll happen. I'm not that optimistic about the coming season. And I don't think my numbers are especially optimistic.
 
Plus it's meant as some fun to wonder what if all expectations are completely off. It happens. We didn't know who would run the ball in '08 and Greene broke like 3 records that year and was fun to watch. And '09 had some questions but we started 9-0 so unexpected things can happen.
 
Jonesy86 said:
So what do you suppose the probability is of this team surprising EVERYONE, overcoming the difficulty of so much coaching attrition and going 12-0 and winning the Champ game?

I don't really think this will happen, but it's nice to dream about it. Personally I think the odds are about 1/100. But about 1/50 in winning the champ game but not having a perfect record. And maybe 1/20 in even getting to the champ game.
Click to expand...

Way worse than 1/20 in getting to the championship game. The whole, "the defensive line needs to be built up" statement from basically the entire coaching staff should tell you enough. There would have to be an unprecedented development happening there to make the Hawks competitive for the conference championship.
 
Jonesy86 said:
So what do you suppose the probability is of this team surprising EVERYONE, overcoming the difficulty of so much coaching attrition and going 12-0 and winning the Champ game?

I don't really think this will happen, but it's nice to dream about it. Personally I think the odds are about 1/100. But about 1/50 in winning the champ game but not having a perfect record. And maybe 1/20 in even getting to the champ game.
Click to expand...

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PR_rzF8ofw]cocaine - YouTube[/ame]
 
Less than one in 10,000.

I'll be thrilled if we pull of 8 wins next year. Honestly, I'm not even sure I can so much about wins/losses right now but it'll be great if the team and coaches come out with new-found fire and passion. That's what I'm hoping for.
 
Jonesy86 said:
Plus it's meant as some fun to wonder what if all expectations are completely off. It happens. We didn't know who would run the ball in '08 and Greene broke like 3 records that year and was fun to watch. And '09 had some questions but we started 9-0 so unexpected things can happen.
Click to expand...

OK, I can see odds of 1-20 or 1-30 of winning the B1G champ game but not being undefeated.

There might be and I hope a possibility that the offense might score about 7 more points per game this year. That could offset some defensive liabiliites .

And I think our dline might be OK to above avg.
 
uihawk82 said:
\

And I think our dline might be OK to above avg.
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I upset people because I base my thoughts off of observable data and kind of expect others to do the same. With that thinking, can you name me a recent Big Ten defensive line that has been average to above average that could be compared to Iowa's line this coming year based on experience, age, and prior performance?

Because I can't come up with one.
 
CAARHawk said:
I upset people because I base my thoughts off of observable data and kind of expect others to do the same. With that thinking, can you name me a recent Big Ten defensive line that has been average to above average that could be compared to Iowa's line this coming year based on experience, age, and prior performance?

Because I can't come up with one.
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We will probably not have Alvis so Bigach is about the only one with experience. But unlike king and kroul when they were put in there as freshmen we have some RS and true freshman that have some size and I hope based on some ratings the athletic ability to plug holes, shed blockers to make tackles, and occuply blockers to keep them off the linebkrs. If Davis cant make much progress that will hurt as I was hoping for him last year to be a big body in the middle.
 
I think it's more likely that we go 0-12 than 12-0. My expectations are very low for the upcoming football season.
 
Without any kind of a playoff, even a +1 system even if Iowa would run the table during the regular season I could easily see us get hosed just like Oregon did when Nebraska last played in the MNC game. An SEC team in the title game at this point and time is nearly a given. The BCS would do everything it had to in order to have a hot Big 12 or PAC 12 glamour team in the other slot.

As I see it for Iowa to have a realistic shot at a MNC we'd really have to 10 and 11 win seasons on a more regular basis and really be a serious contender for the B1G year in and year out.
 
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