I think you're being unnecessarily gloomy. I hadn't seen Iowa play yet this year, and I came away with a ton of positives.
1. Cook is better than I thought he would be, and the offense in general is better than I thought it would be. This is very good IMO, because outside of Cook, I think this is generally a jump shooting team. If Cook didn't have the skill he does with his back to the basket I think Iowa would be pretty easy to defend.
2. Anybody with eyeballs can say the defense was bad. However, defense can be schemed, and the switching defenses looked like it worked really well. SH was an experienced team and it still confounded them, so against less experienced teams it will work really well. IMO offense doesn't get demonstrably better during the season, but I think defense can.
3. There was some talk about Pemsl and J-Bo being overwhelmed and that was obvious. I said it in another thread but Monte Morris was absolutely overmatched in his first game against real competition at BYU his freshman year. Almost lost us the game and I was completely uncomfortable with him even taking the inbounds pass when he was playing due to foul trouble. Don't project careers based on this game.
If I had to guess, I think Iowa will lose to VA, beat Memphis, beat ISU and UNI, and then lose to ND. If that happens I think Iowa ending up at the end of the noncon w/ 3 losses. I think they are still in a position to make a run at the tourney at that point. I do think Iowa has to win 3 of these games though, because the Big 10 conference unbalanced conference schedule doesn't give Iowa as many opportunities for good wins as in the past.