Percent of Victory Calculation

[WhitUp]

I love stats and i love predictions, so I Thought i'd put together my own combination of the two and try to predict the Hawkeye's win total.

Ok I'm going to use round numbers and round to the nearest(just fyi I don't think it's 100 percent Iowa beats EIU, but combined with 95 percent Iowa beats Ball state i think it's accurate)

So what I'm going to predict is percent of victory added up times 12.

Eastern Illinois 100%
Iowa State 80%
@Arizona 65%
Ball State 95%
Penn State 65%
@Michigan 65%
Wisconisn 60%
Michigan State 75%
@Indiana 80%
@Northwestern 70%
Ohio State 45%
@Minnesota 80%

So adding this up and dividing by twelve gives my prediction

880/1200=
.733%
X
12
=
8.8 Wins

I'm curious if other Hawkeye(or Cyclones) fans apply the same math with their own calculations How this will end up.

Just to test this theory further I also calculated Iowa States winning percentage.

NIU 60%
@Iowa 20%
Kansas St @ arrowhead 45%
UNI 95%
TexasTech 35%
Utah 35%
@Oky 10%
@Texas 15%
Kansas 50%
Nebereska 25%
@colorado 35%
Mizzouri 40%

465/1200=
.3875%
x 12
=

4.65 vicotorys

 

[jameskalina]

An interesting method. However, from a statistical standpoint I doubt this is accurate. Maybe a statistics major can elaborate.

The 95% against UNI seems high. I would go with 65%. UNI generally gives ISU fits when they play.

 

[Hawke]

An interesting method. However, from a statistical standpoint I doubt this is accurate. Maybe a statistics major can elaborate.

The 95% against UNI seems high. I would go with 65%. UNI generally gives ISU fits when they play.

I thought the same thing. UNI was a missed last second field goal away from beating ISU two years in a row.

 

[WhitUp]

I thought the same thing. UNI was a missed last second field goal away from beating ISU two years in a row.

This is far from being mathematically accurate, but 65% chance of ISU beating UNI based on 2 last second field goals against Iowa last year seems very unrealistic. You can't base ISU chances of beating UNI on UNI almost beating Iowa. Judging by UNI giving ISU fits as the measure???? If that's the measure and Iowa played UNI and we based it on UNI giving Iowa fits we'd base it just as high.

 

[Hawke]

This is far from being mathematically accurate, but 65% chance of ISU beating UNI based on 2 last second field goals against Iowa last year seems very unrealistic. You can't base ISU chances of beating UNI on UNI almost beating Iowa.

I wasn't. UNI missed a last second field goal at Ames to lose the game. The following year UNI beat ISU in Cedar Falls. Hence my claim that UNI was a missed field goal away from beating ISU two years in a row.

 

[jameskalina]

I wasn't. UNI missed a last second field goal at Ames to lose the game. The following year UNI beat ISU in Cedar Falls. Hence my claim that UNI was a missed field goal away from beating ISU two years in a row.

To clear something up ISU didn't play UNI in Cedar Falls. The games were played in Ames.