I get what he is saying here, but there are some points that he completely dismisses. The strong teams in the conference haven't always been that strong. When the league was formed the strength was in the North and has shifted to the South. With the loss of Nebraska, this should give another team the opportunity to move up a bowl spot in the near future which should help recruiting and hopefully give some teams the upstart that is needed to become a power team. Second, I really don't think the Big12 will stay at 10 teams for long. If the next round of TV contracts go as well as what Beebe thinks they will, it should give the Big12 a good enough offer to go after some other teams like BYU and Arkansas. I don't think that there is another team out there that can match losing Nebraska football by themselves, but it is conceivable to find two schools that can replace Nebraska and Colorado without much of a difference.
Also, the Southern reporters only see football when discussing this. I know that basketball isn't nearly the income generator that football is, but this conference actually got a lot stronger in basketball and with a double round robin schedule the TV contract for that should increase.
All in all, the next TV contract will determine this conference's fate. If they can pull in a lot more money like they expect, I can see the Big12 expanding again and surviving. If not, then we're in the same boat that we were in last summer and there would be no promises left to keep schools like A&M around.
While I agree that Nebraska leaving will create an opening for some teams to move up, it is very, very likely that those teams will be from the South (most likely OSU and Texas Tech).
Texas and OK will secure themselves at the top, and the fight will be for #3-5. The Southern schools have a serious advantage, as they already have more resources and better recruiting grounds. Their schedule will stay about the same in difficulty (perhaps get a tad bit easier), while the Northern schools schedules will get a bit tougher.
IMO, it is the schools like ISU that lose the most from this. By going to 9 conf games and playing everyone, you are gaining another 1-2 "automatic" losses each year, while losing a non-con game (that could be scheduled for an easy win). Losing 2-3 (more likely) wins each year will make it much harder to get to bowl games, and improve the program overall.
*IF* (and that is a huge "if") TV contracts go as well as Beebe has indicated they might, the conference would be more attractive for some other schools. I'm not sure which schools that might be, though. I don't think they will be able to compete with a BigTen, Pac10, or SEC TV deal. I would think their deal would be fairly comparable to the Big East or ACC deals. That pretty much puts them where they are now, recruiting from the non-AQ conferences. If they can't find non-AQ teams that they like now, what is going to change to make them more attractive in the next year or two?
It also seems likely that, with the way the Big12 divides money, the top 4 or 5 schools will actually be collecting an even greater share under the new format (since they will be the ones on TV all the time). They might fight against adding new schools - especially since there are few schools out there that would add much to the pocket book.
It will be interesting how things end up, but, if I were a betting man, I don't think I would be betting on the long term success of the Big12. I think it is far more likely that the Big12 schools will be scrambling, looking for new conferences, in a few years...
