Objective observations concerning the ISU vs NIU game

H

homerHAWKeye777

Well-Known Member
OBSERVATIONS

- ISU is now much more capable in the passing game. Arnaud is back to the form he was in when he picked apart our secondary in '08.

- While Arnaud is back to his prior form (in a good way for ISU fans), he still clearly can be forced into making poor decisions (which is good for Iowa fans).

- BOTH ISU and NIU had missed scoring opportunities in the game. This included 2 missed field goals for NIU. Furthermore, they were in 2 situations where they should have gotten TDs, but instead they missed a FG on one occasion and made a FG on the other. In other words, NIU settled for 3 points instead of 14 points. That could have made a HUGE impact in that game.

- NIU had TWO extremely costly roughing the passer penalties (and they were good calls by the refs too). As I recall, both occurred on 3rd down ... and, on both occasions, they had made the stop. Quite frankly, those two penalties were enought to make a significant difference in the game too.

- Apart from one or two big plays, NIU's D was able to really slow ISU's running game.

- ISU's D was flowing to the ball REALLY well.

- NIU's O was, for all intents and purposes, pretty 1-dimensional. That made things a little easier on the ISU D.

- ISU's D played really aggressively and often stacked the box on first down in order to put NIU in tougher spots in terms of down and distance.

- Williams remains clutch for ISU's O ... and Franklin is a legit threat at TE.

- By selling out to stop the run-game, ISU's pass D was still rather exploitable.

IMPLICATIONS:

- Iowa's pass D will be tested big-time
- ISU will likely come out sharper in the running game ... they won't be pleased with how they fared against NIU's run D
- Iowa will not go into the game cocky. ISU gave them good tape to prepare from.
- ISU's D is seriously exploitable if Iowa can remain balanced.
 
First off, objective observations from HomerHawkeye, love the irony.

Anyways, NIU was much better competition than EIU; Iowa State is going to be a test, that TE especially. Throw in motivations and it will equal a tougher than normal game for Iowa. ISU was succeptible to running up the middle and much like that FSN announcer said, why not run the RB more, it was working? Robinson, Hampton > NIU back.
 
homerHAWKeye777 said:
OBSERVATIONS

- ISU is now much more capable in the passing game. Arnaud is back to the form he was in when he picked apart our secondary in '08.
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Err... I didn't see it. I guess I've never looked at Arnaud as a huge threat rather that ISU had some/a good receivers (Blythe). That said he didn't look good against NIU... his passes lacked touch, and as you said was forced into making bad decisions. Given our D-Line I feel pretty good about getting pressure on him given what NIU was able to do (they didn't sack him much, but they were at least creating pressure). Also, if he does try to run... he looked as slow as ever last week... IMHO.
 
Considering ISU was "stacking the box" and focused on the run...and I agree with you that they were...they only surrendered 93 yards through the air. So with a defense focused on stopping the run, ISU allowed 14-29 passing for 93 yards total offense...and picked off 3 passes. Granted the NIU QB was not very good, but I'm not sure what part of that implies ISU's pass D is "vulnerable".

On the contrary, Homer, I'd say the primary vulnerability is against the run...and in particular, running up the middle of the defense. NIU's running back seemed unstoppable at times and there were some, unfortunately, nice holes for him to run through.

I DO agree with you that balance is the key to taking apart ISU's defense...or really...any defense. ISU's D is better than its been, but is probably just good enough to seriously slow down offenses that are one dimensional. If Iowa comes out determined to run the ball...ISU will handle that pretty well. However, if Iowa pulls up and throws a good bit of play action into that mix...the ISU defense is not going to be able to handle that very well at all. ISU is well coached on defense but limited in terms of athleticism...especially along the front four. So, if allowed to anticipate a run...or a pass...with some certainty, Wally Burnham will counter fairly effectively. If Iowa becomes a bit more unpredictable...ISU simply isn't going to have the athleticism to react and counter it. Iowa's TE's, in particular, scare the hell out of me...and that fullback is very good at sneaking out of the backfield for a play action pass play...very hard to defense.


When ISU has the ball...everything is going to boil down to Arnaud. It will help him tremendously if Arob is running the ball well behind what is a pretty good OL. But the bottom line is, he cannot be a turnover machine...if he is, this game turns into another blowout. If Arnaud plays under control, as he did most of the 1st half last week, he can be formidable...and the ISU Offense will give Iowa fits.

So I believe ISU can play tough against Iowa...but the margin of error for the Cyclones is very thin. Mistakes by Arnaud could easily begin a death spiral, as happened last year. Also, if Iowa's offense shows some unpredictability...the ISU defense will be in big trouble. That said, I'm counting on O'Keefe to keep it pretty vanilla. At least, I'm hoping and praying he does...he's not really known for his innovation so there is "some" reason for optimism on that count! A Stanzi pick six play would also be helpful...and ISU cannot win this game, IMO, without winning the turnover battle by at least a +2.
 
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Mesaclone said:
Considering ISU was "stacking the box" and focused on the run...and I agree with you that they were...they only surrendered 93 yards through the air. So with a defense focused on stopping the run, ISU allowed 14-29 passing for 93 yards total offense...and picked off 3 passes. Granted the NIU QB was not very good, but I'm not sure what part of that implies ISU's pass D is "vulnerable".
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Thats the understatement of the century...he was possibly the most inept passing QB I have ever seen at the D-1 level. He made Jake Christenson look like Peyton Manning
 
I thought ISUs D looked very disciplined and well coached but also slow. The vulnerability in the passing game was shown by several totally blown coverages downfield..NIUs QB was just unable to hit some really wide open receivers 20+ yards downfield behind the safeties. I hope they try to step up their safeties into the box against us.
 
Agreed bus. I was thinking about that this weekend. I don't know that I've ever seen a QB from a D1 team that bad in my life. It was like they took their backup RB and made him QB right before the game. ISU is in for a VERY rude awakening. Especially their suddenly hyped LB's.
 
Mesaclone said:
Considering ISU was "stacking the box" and focused on the run...and I agree with you that they were...they only surrendered 93 yards through the air. So with a defense focused on stopping the run, ISU allowed 14-29 passing for 93 yards total offense...and picked off 3 passes. Granted the NIU QB was not very good, but I'm not sure what part of that implies ISU's pass D is "vulnerable".

On the contrary, Homer, I'd say the primary vulnerability is against the run...and in particular, running up the middle of the defense. NIU's running back seemed unstoppable at times and there were some, unfortunately, nice holes for him to run through.
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Mesa -

Here you really need look no further than Vandenberg's game against the Gophers last year. The Gophs stacked the box and did what they could to put heat on the QB ... and the result was poor production through the air and reduced production in the running game.

Vandenberg had plenty of opportunities to hit open guys, however, the pressure rattled him and he missed on way too many passes. Similarly, Grady had TONS of opportunities to burn the ISU secondary. That is what I was looking at. Heck, with his mobility, he was able to avert a lot of the pressure that ISU was throwing at him. However, Grady simply failed to consistently exploit how open his targets were.

You can definitely examine the stats and observe that NIU's passing production was poor. However, you have to look at the game again and notice WHY there was poor production.

As for run-D, if you look at ISU against NIU, the team really pursued the ball well. Furthermore, they have A LOT of great film to work off of in order to help the guys improve their positioning. Furthermore, young guys tend to fare better against the run than against BOTH the run and the pass.

While ISU will definitely be better with Sims back in. However, all the same, ISU will have to stack the box in order to stop Iowa's running game ... just as they had to do against NIU's O. However, a key difference is that Stanzi can actually pass the ball ... and that will undermine the strategy of stacking the box. If ISU stacks the box, as I anticipate that they will ... they're going to need to get pressure on Stanzi fast ... or else he will make them pay for it. Of course, Iowa's blockers are going to have to do a better job of picking up the blitzes.
 
Using relative math to predict how future opponents two opponents doesn't work that well but.... Here's my take.

Last week Iowa dominated and was able to substitute freely. The competitive nature of ISU's game dictated their actions.
Comparing Iowa's offense vs ISU's offense or defense vs defense is a waste of time. They will never play against each other.

Iowa's defense is going to cause problems for ISU's offense. ISU has a mobile QB. That is always an x factor. Arnaut's mobility hasn't been a factor in this series. ISU had trouble running against NIU. Take out the one long run and Robinson's numbers are bad. The lack of a consistant running game last week caused problems, this week its a killer. ISU has excellent recievers. But getting the ball to them consistantly will be a problem. Under duress AA has a tendency to make bad decisions. He will be under duress a lot.

ISU's defense will cause Iowa's offense problems. Historically teams improve the most from week one to week two. Iowa's O'line will need to improve. Last week Iowa produced good consistant runs, but they also left a lot on the field. The yards will be tougher this week. Stanzi has a tendency early in a game to push certain throws, make INT's. But he when he settles down he can pick a defense apart.

Overall while ISU's defense will cause Iowa's offense problems, Iowa will find some opportunities. ISU's offense is up against a much tougher defense. They will be hard pressed to find opportunities.
Special teams. Iowa should have no problems, ISU should have their major problems fixed.
 
I will never understand the perception that Iowa runs a vanilla offense. Just because we don't run the spread or do the statue of liberty does not mean we run a vanilla offense. Its pretty complex with alot of looks and a ton of options within the formations.
 
HawkeyeDenis -

Yeah, I'm forever perplexed why folks insist on comparing O to O and D to D. It's all really about match-ups, motivation, and intangibles (for example, experience and leadership, and home field advantage are all examples of intangibles).

Fortunately, while ISU's strength will be their O ... Iowa's strength is its D. And, while Iowa's O vs ISU's D is a weakness vs weakness sort of match-up ... Iowa's O is, overall, more experienced than ISU's D.

As heuristic math goes ... I'd say that Iowa's D vs ISU's O is, at an absolute worst, a push. And, mind you, that is including the assumption of Tarp and Prater remaining out (which may not be the case).

And the match-up of ISU's D vs Iowa's O is, at an absolute worst, favors Iowa. And, that already assumes that Gettis will remain out.

Iowa's special teams gives it an added advantage. Donahue is an absolute weapon ... and Meyer has already made a positive impact with regard to helping Iowa is the field-position battle.

One key difference between the squads is that ISU generated quite a number of turnovers against NIU, whereas Iowa didn't generate ANY turnovers against EIU. That is an important advantage that ISU seems to currently possess.

Lastly, while Iowa didn't play all that great at Kinnick last year AND ISU almost always seems to come out of the gate well at Kinnick ... Iowa still hasn't lost to ISU at Kinnick since 2002. That leads me to believe that Kinnick provides Iowa with a legit home-field advantage against the Clones.

While I think that ISU has a good squad and very good coaches ... I have a hard time seeing Iowa NOT win this one. In fact, while I could definitely see the game being a close one ... I also wouldn't be surprised if Iowa wins by a comfortable margin.
 
hawkinn3 said:
I will never understand the perception that Iowa runs a vanilla offense. Just because we don't run the spread or do the statue of liberty does not mean we run a vanilla offense. Its pretty complex with alot of looks and a ton of options within the formations.
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several years after the USC OB game, Carroll was interviewed about all his success at USC, etc. one of the questions was about the most difficult games, opponents, etc. and one of his responses was that Iowa was the most difficult offense to prepare for. I wish i had that youtubed because i'd respond with it each and every time this sophomoric commentary comes up.
 
hawkinn3 said:
I will never understand the perception that Iowa runs a vanilla offense. Just because we don't run the spread or do the statue of liberty does not mean we run a vanilla offense. Its pretty complex with alot of looks and a ton of options within the formations.
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hawkinn -

That is because there are plenty of ignorant folks out there. It's also because Iowa's O can look pretty pedestrian when they're not executing well. It also gets compounded by the fact that the Iowa coaches really value balance on O ... and they're also not afraid of placing emphasis on improving upon deficiencies. Thus, the Hawks aren't always a squad that wins by ridiculously large margins.
 
imported_ankle23 said:
several years after the USC OB game, Carroll was interviewed about all his success at USC, etc. one of the questions was about the most difficult games, opponents, etc. and one of his responses was that Iowa was the most difficult offense to prepare for. I wish i had that youtubed because i'd respond with it each and every time this sophomoric commentary comes up.
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Iowa really is "multiple" on O. Iowa uses the I-formation, the power-I, the off-set I, the pro-set (or variants), ACE set, 2 and 3 TE sets, and shot-gun sets (with 3 and 4 wide).

That is enough to give opposing Ds plenty to prepare for.

Of course, out of most sets, Iowa likes to use play-action and also to roll out the QB.
 
Homer,
thats pretty much my conclusion. Iowa's O will fare much better against ISU's D than ISU's O against Iowa's D.

There are no weak spots on Iowa's D line.They will harrass Arnaut all day. He may be mobile but he makes mistakes on the run. Their running game had trouble against NIU. Against Iowa, it may be non-existant. ISU, lot of 3 and outs. Iowa's D line compensates for any inexperiance(there isn't much) at LB and secondary. Iowa's D will create a opportunities and limit ISU's time of possession.

ISU D. They are active but to get pressure they will need to blitz. Rick can work a blitz. Iowa rolls out often. Iowa's O'line made mistakes last week, but they will improve this week. The running game will have a solid one-two punch. ISU's D will cause problems but Iowa will make first downs.

I predicted earlier that if ISU is scores more than 10 points then Iowa's D isn't the top 10 D they are supposed to be. Which may be a problem in Arizona.
Also if the final score is closer than one TD that may mean that this is probably not a championship year for Iowa. My prediction is Iowa by 14.
 
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HawkeyeDenis -

I think that ISU has a better O than you're giving them credit. However, that said, if Iowa can regularly force ISU's O to face a long field ... then ISU will still have to work pretty hard to score points.

Also, I think that Iowa is going to need to have better personnel continuity among the back 7 before we can declare them as being a top 10 D. Thus, I wouldn't be as shocked if ISU scores more than 10 points. However, I would be surprised if they scored more than 20 points.

In my opinion, the 2010 ISU O is better than the 2009 Michigan O ... and the Michigan O managed to score 21 points on us.

I don't think that we'll truly see Iowa play like a top 10 D until we start getting into the Big 10 schedule. I think that the OOC schedule will really help give the D plenty of tape it help them improve upon. We're going to face plenty of quality skill players against ISU, Arizona, and even Ball State (they have some VERY good RBs and a great TE ... I'm assuming that he got a hardship waiver).
 
The only thing I have to say is Iowa's defense would have KILLED NIU and their pulseless QB...Thats all.
 
Ya I may be shortchanging ISU's O. But on the best of days ISU's O consists of Arnaut, and Robinson. Slow down those two and the job is easier.
If the running game is produces then Arnaut's job is easier.
If Arnaut has a good day passing then the WR's, TE's have a good day.

If Iowa's defense dominates.
The ISU running game will have problems. Their running game wasn't good against NIU. Iowa is not NIU. ISU will have to counter the D line pressure. Screen passes against an experianced D line is risky. Double teams leaves the other linemen open.
Arnaut will be scrambling. If he scrambles..he can run..or he can throw.

ISU's offense is not better than MSU, OSU, Wisc etc. If Iowa's D doesn't dominate ISU O then almost every game beyond Saturday is in question.
 
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