My Look at 2012 Iowa schedule from Confidence Points Index

Posted this is the other thread but I think you're being very conservative on some of these. As someone pointed out in the comments, do you really think UNI and NIU would beat Iowa 1/4 times?

Good read none the less, thanks.
 
DexterMorgan said:
Posted this is the other thread but I think you're being very conservative on some of these. As someone pointed out in the comments, do you really think UNI and NIU would beat Iowa 1/4 times?

Good read none the less, thanks.
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Thanks for the write up Jon, really enjoyed it.

Like Dexter said, some of those percentages are pretty conservative. I highly doubt UNI has a better chance to win in Iowa City than Iowa has at Michigan.
 
I have to think we are better than 55% against ISU. No way Jantz plays like he did in Ames. JVB at home...their defense being rebuilt and considered weak everywhere but LB.

We should be able to outscore them at the very least.
 
While some call it conservative, I just don't think this defense is going to give Iowa much of a chance. Iowa will have to average 30ppg to win 7 or 8 games, IMO.

This is a 5-6/6-6 team on talent, but a potential 8-4/9-3 with that schedule. I would guess this is the most favorable schedule of the Ferentz era.
 
JonDMiller said:
While some call it conservative, I just don't think this defense is going to give Iowa much of a chance. Iowa will have to average 30ppg to win 7 or 8 games, IMO.

This is a 5-6/6-6 team on talent, but a potential 8-4/9-3 with that schedule. I would guess this is the most favorable schedule of the Ferentz era.
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Put down the bong JD.

Yes we have a horrendous D-Line at least at the start of the season.

Yes, games are won in the trenches.

But our LB's and DB's are going to be top third(ish) units. No, we're not going to set any defensive records this year, but at least there is talent in 7 of the 11 players, 2 of 3 groups.

Now let's move over to the offense.

We have a top quarter(ish) offensive line which will obviously help a ton.

We have two receivers who had horrendous case of the dropsies last year.

Our best receiver is a TE

We have NO RUNNING BACK with any experience. Our leading rusher will be a true freshman.

And we have a QB who is still being lauded for a game he played in three ******* years ago, which by the way, I believe we still lost.

In baseball terms, I would classify our offense as having "Warning Track Power." At least on defense we have some skill players who can make things happen.

We have as much of a chance of scoring 30 points a game as Cougar Mellancamp has of having me open for his sorry ***.
 
I still think 9 to 10 wins is very possible. We have one of the easiest schedules in the country
 
JonDMiller said:
Boss, where are we disagreeing?
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Well, we're not in our overall prediction on proposed record which is ultimately what matters...

But I think if this defensive line was average going into the season, this would be a salty defense. Is there a chance that the defensive line develops into an average unit this season? Probably not.

But to suggest that the offense will need to score 30+ PPG this season to give the team to win, and then to suggest that we can win 8-9 games due to our schedule has me scratching my head.

Our best receiver is a TE
Our first string RB as of now barely got a carry last year.
Our QB was 1-5 on the road last year.

Those are indisputable facts, and if we are going to score 30+ PPG this season, than JVB is going to have to be UNSTOPPABLY good... like Drew Tate of 2004 good, or Brad Banks good. I'm sorry, I don't think he has that in him.

This isn't all on him, it's just that he has very little weaponry to fight with, so he's going to have to be it all basically.

And I think it is more likely that our defensive line ends up average than I do JVB has that kind of jump.

I think 7-8 wins is likely this year, but I think the defense could surprise and the offense could be painful to watch.
 
How many power running teams do we play? I feel like our D is well suited to play against the short passing spread teams with the size at LB. If we ran into Wisconsin they'd hang 50 on us.
 
I think I said that 8-4/9-3 is possible given the weak schedule. I think this team, in most years with a usual schedule, is a 6-6 team.

IF Iowa is going to break through the glass ceiling this year and get to 8 or 9 wins, I think the offense is going to have to really deliver because I have little belief the defense will. I think the line is what it is.

Now, I don't think it will take that to win 7...I need to amend that
 
BlackandGold81 said:
Jon do you think that the defense is going to struggle due to poor players or poor coaching?
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To me, Iowa is in a situation where they have mostly unknown's on the DL, other than Alvis. Bigach did OK last year, but that was playing next to Mike Daniels. Pretty much every unknown is going to have to come through...and I don't like the odds of that happening in any situation, where every 'hope' is realized...things don't typically work that way.

I think Iowa is going to be a lot more aggressive on defense, which will put more pressure on the back end...good thing there are not a lot of great throwers on Iowa's schedule, however.
 
This is a 5-6/6-6 team on talent

Jon this may be what you meant, but I don't think this team is a 6-6 talent team. I think it is loaded with talent, but it is young talent. I do agree though that it may be 6-6 experienced team. Too many young guys being counted on for production.

Sorry for nit picking.
 
vosov said:
This is a 5-6/6-6 team on talent

Jon this may be what you meant, but I don't think this team is a 6-6 talent team. I think it is loaded with talent, but it is young talent. I do agree though that it may be 6-6 experienced team. Too many young guys being counted on for production.

Sorry for nit picking.
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While we can't say for certain that young talent = great talent, I concur with the premise. Iowa is going to need soooooo many question marks answered in the affirmative, all over the place...and the odds of that happening, everywhere...just too long of odds for me.
 
It's definitely nice that we start out with 5 games where we're not going to be facing world beaters on the O line and at QB. 5 Games is a steep learning curve, but that could serve to be extremely helpful in the confidence and development of our young D Linemen.

EDIT: Oh and a Bye week after those first 5 games.
 
Hope I'm wrong, but I don't see more than 6 wins on that schedule.

Sometimes if I squint I get to 7 wins, but never 8.
 
Hmmm...I must have black and gold colored glasses because I think we are very solid in the back seven...provided Law can play the way everyone thinks he can. He's got veterans to help him who have plenty of experience.

It all boils down to what happens on the DL in my opinion on whether we are below or above average on D. If Alvis and Bigach are what they are with the normal improvement year or year, then we need two or three guys to step up. That's not out of the ordinary in a given year. I think it can happen.

My guess is that we give up 21 or 22 points a game. We have to average 4 touchdowns a game IMO to go 8-3.
 
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