JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The term 'Final Early Look' is a bit much, I know. That said, I've reshuffled my early Big Ten Power rankings for next winter's basketball season a few times based on early entry decisions into the NBA draft. With the final deadline now having come and gone, here is my final, early look.
1. Michigan State: The Spartans are the clear cut favorite for next year. I believe they are a bigger preseason favorite for 2013-2014 than Indiana was for 2012-2013. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris chose to remain in East Lansing. They'll come back to play alongside point guard Keith Appling, who will be better than he was a year ago. Derrick Nix is all they lose and while he was a solid player, both figuratively and literally, the Spartans are loaded and are a national title contender with two 1st team All Big Tenner's in their starting lineup, possibly three. Iowa will likely play them twice next year. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top Four
2. Ohio State: This is where plenty of people will differ. Some will choose Michigan here instead of the Buckeyes but I think Ohio State will be the better team in November and December, possibly even all year. Michigan may have a shot to overtake Ohio State later in the year depending on their point guard play, but that's where Aaron Craft steps in for the Buckeyes and gives them the edge. Ohio State was arguably the best defensive team in the league last year and will be better next year. Deshaun Thomas scored a lot of points but they will replace those and he was a hindrance on defense at times. LaQuinton Ross is a budding star and Shannon Scott is a player. By the way, the Buckeyes are in their best run of success on the hardcourt of my lifetime. I realize they have won titles before, but Thad Matta is setting a pace that has seldom, if ever, been seen in Columbus. Nothing but reloading for the Buckeyes now. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top 10
3. Michigan: They lose Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr from a team that played for the national title. Had those two stuck around, the Big Ten would have three teams who would be final four contenders. Glen Robinson III and Mitch McGary would have been first round picks but decided to stay and become sure-fire Lottery Picks next year, although that is not a given based on how talented the incoming freshman class will be and the expectation that most will turn pro after one year in college. Nic Stauskas was actually the third leading scorer for Michigan and he returns. The three players I have listed are likely three of the Top 15 in the league. Point guard will be their early issue, however. But they have talent on campus. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top 15, possibly Top 10.
4. Iowa: I think there is a decent chance that Iowa will be ranked in the preseason for the first time in more than a decade and their first ranking, period, since 2006. Iowa has two of the top 15 players in the league in Dev Marble and Aaron White. Marble really took his game to a new level in the NIT and that level was consistency. No, I don't expect him to average 20 points per game next year but he showed he has even more offensive upside to his game. He will be a senior but a young senior as he won't turn 21 until September. I think he has more room to grow physically as well as offensively. White has a lot of room to grow in both of those areas and will need to add something to his half court game on offense, as his scoring contributions can't be counted on because they mostly come from effort plays (transition baskets, offensive putbacks and getting to the line) and less from jump shots. I am not knocking his production and I love watching him play. It's just that he will need to stick that short corner jumper from time to time to draw defenders out when he has the ball. Iowa returns everyone but Eric May. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top 25
5. Purdue: This is a real hard choice and I'd rather put Indiana and Purdue in a tie here. But I look at Indiana's lineup and most of their raw talent will be unproven newcomers and this league is still going to be a grinder in 2013-2014. I love the fact that the Boilermakers have their point guard and center as their two best players and they return.
6. Indiana: I am likely making a foolish mistake by not putting Wisconsin here...history would say that I am making a stupid mistake by not having Wisconsin in the Top Four, given that's what Bo Ryan does. I think think Indiana will figure things out in late February and Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey will help the youngsters through the tough spots.
7. Wisconsin: The Badgers look like a doughnut to me...they have some substance around the outside but not much in the middle. Sure, Sam Dekker is a great player and fun to watch but he's about all they have inside and he will have to change up to more of a power role in the absence of Ryan Evans, Mike Bruesewitz and Jared Berggren, three of the team's top rebounders and scorers. Then again, I'm sure Bo Ryan will turn Frank Kaminsky into something brilliant and Nigel Hayes will come in and be a force as a freshman. That's just what Bo does...OR, the loss of Jarrod Uthoff, who was slated to be coming into his own at this juncture for the Badgers, could come back to haunt them in more ways than one?
THE REST:
8. Penn State: Newbill and Frazier in the backcourt? Spoiler.
9. Northwestern
10. Illinois
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
1. Michigan State: The Spartans are the clear cut favorite for next year. I believe they are a bigger preseason favorite for 2013-2014 than Indiana was for 2012-2013. Adreian Payne and Gary Harris chose to remain in East Lansing. They'll come back to play alongside point guard Keith Appling, who will be better than he was a year ago. Derrick Nix is all they lose and while he was a solid player, both figuratively and literally, the Spartans are loaded and are a national title contender with two 1st team All Big Tenner's in their starting lineup, possibly three. Iowa will likely play them twice next year. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top Four
2. Ohio State: This is where plenty of people will differ. Some will choose Michigan here instead of the Buckeyes but I think Ohio State will be the better team in November and December, possibly even all year. Michigan may have a shot to overtake Ohio State later in the year depending on their point guard play, but that's where Aaron Craft steps in for the Buckeyes and gives them the edge. Ohio State was arguably the best defensive team in the league last year and will be better next year. Deshaun Thomas scored a lot of points but they will replace those and he was a hindrance on defense at times. LaQuinton Ross is a budding star and Shannon Scott is a player. By the way, the Buckeyes are in their best run of success on the hardcourt of my lifetime. I realize they have won titles before, but Thad Matta is setting a pace that has seldom, if ever, been seen in Columbus. Nothing but reloading for the Buckeyes now. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top 10
3. Michigan: They lose Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr from a team that played for the national title. Had those two stuck around, the Big Ten would have three teams who would be final four contenders. Glen Robinson III and Mitch McGary would have been first round picks but decided to stay and become sure-fire Lottery Picks next year, although that is not a given based on how talented the incoming freshman class will be and the expectation that most will turn pro after one year in college. Nic Stauskas was actually the third leading scorer for Michigan and he returns. The three players I have listed are likely three of the Top 15 in the league. Point guard will be their early issue, however. But they have talent on campus. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top 15, possibly Top 10.
4. Iowa: I think there is a decent chance that Iowa will be ranked in the preseason for the first time in more than a decade and their first ranking, period, since 2006. Iowa has two of the top 15 players in the league in Dev Marble and Aaron White. Marble really took his game to a new level in the NIT and that level was consistency. No, I don't expect him to average 20 points per game next year but he showed he has even more offensive upside to his game. He will be a senior but a young senior as he won't turn 21 until September. I think he has more room to grow physically as well as offensively. White has a lot of room to grow in both of those areas and will need to add something to his half court game on offense, as his scoring contributions can't be counted on because they mostly come from effort plays (transition baskets, offensive putbacks and getting to the line) and less from jump shots. I am not knocking his production and I love watching him play. It's just that he will need to stick that short corner jumper from time to time to draw defenders out when he has the ball. Iowa returns everyone but Eric May. PRESEASON RANKING EXPECTATION: Top 25
5. Purdue: This is a real hard choice and I'd rather put Indiana and Purdue in a tie here. But I look at Indiana's lineup and most of their raw talent will be unproven newcomers and this league is still going to be a grinder in 2013-2014. I love the fact that the Boilermakers have their point guard and center as their two best players and they return.
6. Indiana: I am likely making a foolish mistake by not putting Wisconsin here...history would say that I am making a stupid mistake by not having Wisconsin in the Top Four, given that's what Bo Ryan does. I think think Indiana will figure things out in late February and Yogi Ferrell and Will Sheehey will help the youngsters through the tough spots.
7. Wisconsin: The Badgers look like a doughnut to me...they have some substance around the outside but not much in the middle. Sure, Sam Dekker is a great player and fun to watch but he's about all they have inside and he will have to change up to more of a power role in the absence of Ryan Evans, Mike Bruesewitz and Jared Berggren, three of the team's top rebounders and scorers. Then again, I'm sure Bo Ryan will turn Frank Kaminsky into something brilliant and Nigel Hayes will come in and be a force as a freshman. That's just what Bo does...OR, the loss of Jarrod Uthoff, who was slated to be coming into his own at this juncture for the Badgers, could come back to haunt them in more ways than one?
THE REST:
8. Penn State: Newbill and Frazier in the backcourt? Spoiler.
9. Northwestern
10. Illinois
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
