Miller: Dollars and Sense of Big 10 Expansion

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated has penned an excellent article that looks at the resumes of possible Big Ten invitees and their ramifications to the new Big Ten, including financial aspects, linked here.

In his article, he links to another excellent piece that focuses on the economic impact a school like Missouri could add to the Big Ten, linked here.

And in today’s Detroit News, Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo says he sees Notre Dame joining a 16-team Big Ten, linked here. DiNardo is not some Notre Dame outlander; he was an All American for the Irish in the 1970’s and was part of a national championship team.

I know that we have spent a lot of time focusing on this topic, and we will continue to do so as new or fresh items come across my desk.

We spend a lot of time discussing the possible new schools related to the Big Ten, and we talk somewhat nebulously about their financial impact to the league, which is why I have felt all along and dating back to the early years of this decade that Rutgers would be a part of future Big Ten expansion. It’s the same reason why I think Missouri will be a part of that expansion, and obviously why Notre Dame would be a great addition.

Take a look at these numbers:

There are 2.2 million cable households in Missouri, according the second article linked above. The Big Ten Network gets approximately $.70 cents per every cable subscriber withing the Big Ten footprint, because the network is on the basic tier package. Outside the footprint, the network is on a sports tier that is an additional cost, so the network averages around $.10 cents per cable subscriber in those areas.

In Missouri, the Big Ten gets around $220,000 per month from cable subscription revenues. If Mizzou were added to the Big Ten, and the Big Ten Network went from the sports tier package to the basic cable package, cable subscription revenues for the league could increase to $1.54 million dollars per month. On an annual basis, you are looking at going from $2,640,000 to $18,480,000. Last year, every Big Ten team was paid roughly $21,000,000 dollars from television revenues the league earned via the Big Ten Network, ESPN, CBS and ABC. So Missouri would nearly be paying its own freight into the league on increased cable subscription revenues alone.

Apply this same aspect to Rutgers and their 3.1 million cable subscribers on Cablevision; $3,720,000 subscription revenue per year to $26,040,000.

As of late, Andy Katz of ESPN reported Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Maryland as possible Big Ten additions.

Maryland is the only one of those three that seems to fit geographically, especially if you add Rutgers. You also then add the state of Maryland and their cable TV households, plus the District of Columbia, plus northeast Virginia and cities like Arlington. Maryland’s campus is northeast of the Mall in DC, where Arlington is just SW of the Mall. Its campus is a DC suburb, basically. You are talking a lot of people.

So I did some digging for TV households in Maryland…and I found a discussion on a Boston College website that was talking about the future of the Big East if teams like Rutgers and Syracuse left, and whom they might look to add. One of them was Maryland, a state whose population is on par with Wisconsin and Missouri. Here is the link to that.

I am not saying this is ‘the word’ on Maryland TV households, but they estimated that there are roughly 3.6 million TV households…so you would be talking about money akin to Rutgers, if not greater if you add in DC and NE Virginia.

Then of course, there is Notre Dame. You cannot add their home state of Indiana, because they are already in the Big Ten footprint. But when you factor in the Catholic connection, you can start picking off cable companies around the nation. Notre Dame has strong ties in Texas, Southern California and New York, through historic Irish-Catholic connections.

When you start to factor in the kind of money the Big Ten Network could earn from such cable companies adding the BTN to the basic cable tier with Notre Dame’s involvement, the numbers are hard to grasp but also potentially mind blowing. You likely get New York City, you might get Miami, as the southeast coast of Florida is an east coast retiree haven.

It seems not a matter of if, rather, a matter of when the Big Ten expands to 16 teams and the athletic departments in the league start depositing north or $35 million dollars per year on TV revenues alone from the Big Ten Network.

This link takes you to athletic department revenues from the end of the 2008 fiscal year: LINK

There are 118 Division I teams listed there…and schools 65-118 earned less than $35,000,000 per year from their entire athletic department revenue streams.

Iowa State was 63rd on the list, and they generated less than $39 million.

How in the world can schools like that compete with schools in the Big Ten in athletics when the financial playing field is so unbalanced? And we haven’t even factored in ADVERTISING revenues from the expanded network, just cable subscription revenues.

The answer is simple; they won’t be able to.

We are heading towards a future where there will be four or so superconferences made up of 64 or so teams. That will be your new Division I. This will also change the bowl landscape, and perhaps pave a way for a playoff system; the money will match the demand for it, even though I am not interested in a playoff.

Schools like Iowa State will likely find their way into one of the superconferences and they will reap in revenue sharing, but likely nothing like the Big Ten or SEC.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick said weeks ago that the Irish would likely have to take a long hard look at joining a conference if there was going to be a seismic shift in college football.

Get ready Jack, the big one is coming. Because if you are not presently in the Big Ten or SEC, or one of the teams that will be, your house is built on sand, with few exceptions. Perhaps you are one of those exceptions..then again, if you don’t have Big Ten schools to play on NBC, you might not be.
 
Wow, thanks for posting this article. You are talking some serious $$ if you join the Big Ten, and I really think if they are going to expand, they are going to do it now and go to 16 teams.
 
Thanks for breaking it all out Jon. Seems to be a big fork in the road for some of these universities and they better pick the right path or they could be on the wrong side looking up at everyone else. Thank God I am Hawk fan and the only thing we have to worry about is who is going to be on our schedule in a few years.
 
Teddy Greenstein breaks down the TV household numbers in todays Chicago Trib also. Talks about Rutgers adding 12 million tvs to the BTN in NY/NJ/Philly markets.
Talks about the 3.6 million for Maryland.
I am starting to think that Maryland needs to be considered.
Rutgers,Md,ND,Neb,Mo....on my ever-evolving list, this looks like it could be the biggest boon financially. And Md. is a very fertile recruiting area for football(Coker) and bb. Md is a great bb school, and decent in football.
Now, I have always felt that the Big Ten has to threatened the very existance of Big East football to leverage ND into the fold, so ,from that aspect, Cuse,Pitt or UConn might ace out Md...ND is the big kahuna,so whatever it takes.

Now, Brian Kelly is out there making strong statements of his love of their independence in football,but that could be posturing.
They just announced a series with Miami starting in 2012,in Solder Field, adding to their series of off campus games in recent years...so they could be prepping to go it alone without traditional big ten non-conference opponents like Mich,MSU and PU.

Teddy also talked about going to 9 conference games(more programming for BTN) and expanding into other nites(thursday nite this year for OSU before labor day weekend), to fill the BTN with highly demanded content.

As Teddy says, when Delaney told the Des Moines Register back in 2007 that the BTN is going to end up being bigger than anyone imagined and the driver behind expansion...he was prescient. BTN is going to be a monster,challenging ESPN in the fall and winter.
 
The interesting thing about this make-up is that there is no guarantee that ND will bring extra basic cable money. Will they really end up adding markets, or is it an empty promise? When I see this list of places where there are 'reportedly' a lot of Catholics, I think, "yeah, but are these Catholics going to sway a cable company to switch the BTN to basic, or will these areas count on the committed Catholics to move up to premium?"

I bet the latter has more chance of succeeding than the former. Also, there are Catholics in Texas, but we might question how many are watching soccer and how many are watching football? I grew up in So Cal and lived in No Cal. Sure there are Domer fans, but not even close to as many USC, UCLA, Cal, and Stanford fans.

I just think it is a bit more of a gamble to expect ND to add more basic customers. Now, that being said, I would expect them to increase national advertising revenue. Because I would expect a national bump in viewership. However, if you want a bump in basic cable customers, Maryland and Virginia seem to promise more immediate impact.
 
The thing that I found most interesting about these articles wasn't necessarily the money, we all know BTN is profitable, it was the amount of games shown on either the BTN or it's website.

86 of 88 (97%) of B10 Football Games televised nationally
94% of MBB Games broadcast on TV or the Net

It's no wonder the B10 wants to get into the NY/NJ market. That kind of exposure makes recruiting much easier.
 
I think going to 16 teams and one of them not being ND would shock me, also from the SI article the thought of the SEC getting Texas and Okie would be crazy good for the SEC and would trump anything the Big Ten could do including getting ND and whoever else at least as far as football goes.
 
I think going to 16 teams and one of them not being ND would shock me, also from the SI article the thought of the SEC getting Texas and Okie would be crazy good for the SEC and would trump anything the Big Ten could do including getting ND and whoever else at least as far as football goes.

If Texas and Oklahoma go the the SEC the Big 12 is done. But I don't think that it would trump what the Big 10 would do because the B10 would be the first domino in the realignment of College Sports. The B10 is going to show the way, everyone else is going to be playing catch-up. In my mind that trumps everything else.
 
The athletic $ is impressive, but likely a drop in the bucket
compared to potential grant $ and such.

I'm wondering if say a rutgers delivers athletically, does it
always deliver academically?
Or does a school like vandy actually deliver potentially
so much more in terms of grant $ that these athletic revenue numbers
really don't matter much if at all?

I don't know the answers and would love
to sit next to delany & the university presidents
as they discuss expansion. I'm probably not alone.

In fact delany should have a camera crew
follow him 24/7 thru this process then make a
documentary and put it on the B10N.
I guarantee we'd all watch it.
 
In fact delany should have a camera crew
follow him 24/7 thru this process then make a
documentary and put it on the B10N.
I guarantee we'd all watch it.

Could we call it Survivor?

"Maryland the tribe has spoken, it's time to leave expansion"
 
Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated has penned an excellent article that looks at the resumes of possible Big Ten invitees and their ramifications to the new Big Ten, including financial aspects, linked here.

In his article, he links to another excellent piece that focuses on the economic impact a school like Missouri could add to the Big Ten, linked here.

And in today’s Detroit News, Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo says he sees Notre Dame joining a 16-team Big Ten, linked here. DiNardo is not some Notre Dame outlander; he was an All American for the Irish in the 1970’s and was part of a national championship team.

I know that we have spent a lot of time focusing on this topic, and we will continue to do so as new or fresh items come across my desk.

We spend a lot of time discussing the possible new schools related to the Big Ten, and we talk somewhat nebulously about their financial impact to the league, which is why I have felt all along and dating back to the early years of this decade that Rutgers would be a part of future Big Ten expansion. It’s the same reason why I think Missouri will be a part of that expansion, and obviously why Notre Dame would be a great addition.

Take a look at these numbers:

There are 2.2 million cable households in Missouri, according the second article linked above. The Big Ten Network gets approximately $.70 cents per every cable subscriber withing the Big Ten footprint, because the network is on the basic tier package. Outside the footprint, the network is on a sports tier that is an additional cost, so the network averages around $.10 cents per cable subscriber in those areas.

In Missouri, the Big Ten gets around $220,000 per month from cable subscription revenues. If Mizzou were added to the Big Ten, and the Big Ten Network went from the sports tier package to the basic cable package, cable subscription revenues for the league could increase to $1.54 million dollars per month. On an annual basis, you are looking at going from $2,640,000 to $18,480,000. Last year, every Big Ten team was paid roughly $21,000,000 dollars from television revenues the league earned via the Big Ten Network, ESPN, CBS and ABC. So Missouri would nearly be paying its own freight into the league on increased cable subscription revenues alone.

Apply this same aspect to Rutgers and their 3.1 million cable subscribers on Cablevision; $3,720,000 subscription revenue per year to $26,040,000.

As of late, Andy Katz of ESPN reported Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Maryland as possible Big Ten additions.

Maryland is the only one of those three that seems to fit geographically, especially if you add Rutgers. You also then add the state of Maryland and their cable TV households, plus the District of Columbia, plus northeast Virginia and cities like Arlington. Maryland’s campus is northeast of the Mall in DC, where Arlington is just SW of the Mall. Its campus is a DC suburb, basically. You are talking a lot of people.

So I did some digging for TV households in Maryland…and I found a discussion on a Boston College website that was talking about the future of the Big East if teams like Rutgers and Syracuse left, and whom they might look to add. One of them was Maryland, a state whose population is on par with Wisconsin and Missouri. Here is the link to that.

I am not saying this is ‘the word’ on Maryland TV households, but they estimated that there are roughly 3.6 million TV households…so you would be talking about money akin to Rutgers, if not greater if you add in DC and NE Virginia.

Then of course, there is Notre Dame. You cannot add their home state of Indiana, because they are already in the Big Ten footprint. But when you factor in the Catholic connection, you can start picking off cable companies around the nation. Notre Dame has strong ties in Texas, Southern California and New York, through historic Irish-Catholic connections.

When you start to factor in the kind of money the Big Ten Network could earn from such cable companies adding the BTN to the basic cable tier with Notre Dame’s involvement, the numbers are hard to grasp but also potentially mind blowing. You likely get New York City, you might get Miami, as the southeast coast of Florida is an east coast retiree haven.

It seems not a matter of if, rather, a matter of when the Big Ten expands to 16 teams and the athletic departments in the league start depositing north or $35 million dollars per year on TV revenues alone from the Big Ten Network.

This link takes you to athletic department revenues from the end of the 2008 fiscal year: LINK

There are 118 Division I teams listed there…and schools 65-118 earned less than $35,000,000 per year from their entire athletic department revenue streams.

Iowa State was 63rd on the list, and they generated less than $39 million.

How in the world can schools like that compete with schools in the Big Ten in athletics when the financial playing field is so unbalanced? And we haven’t even factored in ADVERTISING revenues from the expanded network, just cable subscription revenues.

The answer is simple; they won’t be able to.

We are heading towards a future where there will be four or so superconferences made up of 64 or so teams. That will be your new Division I. This will also change the bowl landscape, and perhaps pave a way for a playoff system; the money will match the demand for it, even though I am not interested in a playoff.

Schools like Iowa State will likely find their way into one of the superconferences and they will reap in revenue sharing, but likely nothing like the Big Ten or SEC.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick said weeks ago that the Irish would likely have to take a long hard look at joining a conference if there was going to be a seismic shift in college football.

Get ready Jack, the big one is coming. Because if you are not presently in the Big Ten or SEC, or one of the teams that will be, your house is built on sand, with few exceptions. Perhaps you are one of those exceptions..then again, if you don’t have Big Ten schools to play on NBC, you might not be.

Bravo Jon, you missed your calling you should write a column for the Register. The St. Louis Post has a great article today about the future of the Big !2, worth reading,

I still think it is amazing that a small private catholic university like Notre Dame can change the entire landscape of college sports. I still think it is 50/50 whether they join. If the Big ten refuses to play them in nonconference football games it may be the straw that finally breaks the camel's back.

I still think 12 teams is better than 16 but money will win out in the end.
 
Then of course, there is Notre Dame. You cannot add their home state of Indiana, because they are already in the Big Ten footprint. But when you factor in the Catholic connection, you can start picking off cable companies around the nation. Notre Dame has strong ties in Texas, Southern California and New York, through historic Irish-Catholic connections.

When you start to factor in the kind of money the Big Ten Network could earn from such cable companies adding the BTN to the basic cable tier with Notre Dame’s involvement, the numbers are hard to grasp but also potentially mind blowing. You likely get New York City, you might get Miami, as the southeast coast of Florida is an east coast retiree haven.

But I thought Notre Dame was irrelevant? I thought they were going the way of Army, Navy or Minnesota? What a joke.
 
Get ready Jack, the big one is coming. Because if you are not presently in the Big Ten or SEC, or one of the teams that will be, your house is built on sand, with few exceptions. Perhaps you are one of those exceptions..then again, if you don’t have Big Ten schools to play on NBC, you might not be.

10-4 Jon, they will just resume irrelevant rivalries with Miami, Florida State and Tennesee. Take your Big 10 ball and go home.

Notre Dame-Miami rivalry to resume in 2012, source says - NCAA Football - SI.com
 
Andy Staples of Sports Illustrated has penned an excellent article that looks at the resumes of possible Big Ten invitees and their ramifications to the new Big Ten, including financial aspects, linked here.

In his article, he links to another excellent piece that focuses on the economic impact a school like Missouri could add to the Big Ten, linked here.

And in today’s Detroit News, Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo says he sees Notre Dame joining a 16-team Big Ten, linked here. DiNardo is not some Notre Dame outlander; he was an All American for the Irish in the 1970’s and was part of a national championship team.

I know that we have spent a lot of time focusing on this topic, and we will continue to do so as new or fresh items come across my desk.

We spend a lot of time discussing the possible new schools related to the Big Ten, and we talk somewhat nebulously about their financial impact to the league, which is why I have felt all along and dating back to the early years of this decade that Rutgers would be a part of future Big Ten expansion. It’s the same reason why I think Missouri will be a part of that expansion, and obviously why Notre Dame would be a great addition.

Take a look at these numbers:

There are 2.2 million cable households in Missouri, according the second article linked above. The Big Ten Network gets approximately $.70 cents per every cable subscriber withing the Big Ten footprint, because the network is on the basic tier package. Outside the footprint, the network is on a sports tier that is an additional cost, so the network averages around $.10 cents per cable subscriber in those areas.

In Missouri, the Big Ten gets around $220,000 per month from cable subscription revenues. If Mizzou were added to the Big Ten, and the Big Ten Network went from the sports tier package to the basic cable package, cable subscription revenues for the league could increase to $1.54 million dollars per month. On an annual basis, you are looking at going from $2,640,000 to $18,480,000. Last year, every Big Ten team was paid roughly $21,000,000 dollars from television revenues the league earned via the Big Ten Network, ESPN, CBS and ABC. So Missouri would nearly be paying its own freight into the league on increased cable subscription revenues alone.

Apply this same aspect to Rutgers and their 3.1 million cable subscribers on Cablevision; $3,720,000 subscription revenue per year to $26,040,000.

As of late, Andy Katz of ESPN reported Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and Maryland as possible Big Ten additions.

Maryland is the only one of those three that seems to fit geographically, especially if you add Rutgers. You also then add the state of Maryland and their cable TV households, plus the District of Columbia, plus northeast Virginia and cities like Arlington. Maryland’s campus is northeast of the Mall in DC, where Arlington is just SW of the Mall. Its campus is a DC suburb, basically. You are talking a lot of people.

So I did some digging for TV households in Maryland…and I found a discussion on a Boston College website that was talking about the future of the Big East if teams like Rutgers and Syracuse left, and whom they might look to add. One of them was Maryland, a state whose population is on par with Wisconsin and Missouri. Here is the link to that.

I am not saying this is ‘the word’ on Maryland TV households, but they estimated that there are roughly 3.6 million TV households…so you would be talking about money akin to Rutgers, if not greater if you add in DC and NE Virginia.

Then of course, there is Notre Dame. You cannot add their home state of Indiana, because they are already in the Big Ten footprint. But when you factor in the Catholic connection, you can start picking off cable companies around the nation. Notre Dame has strong ties in Texas, Southern California and New York, through historic Irish-Catholic connections.

When you start to factor in the kind of money the Big Ten Network could earn from such cable companies adding the BTN to the basic cable tier with Notre Dame’s involvement, the numbers are hard to grasp but also potentially mind blowing. You likely get New York City, you might get Miami, as the southeast coast of Florida is an east coast retiree haven.

It seems not a matter of if, rather, a matter of when the Big Ten expands to 16 teams and the athletic departments in the league start depositing north or $35 million dollars per year on TV revenues alone from the Big Ten Network.

This link takes you to athletic department revenues from the end of the 2008 fiscal year: LINK

There are 118 Division I teams listed there…and schools 65-118 earned less than $35,000,000 per year from their entire athletic department revenue streams.

Iowa State was 63rd on the list, and they generated less than $39 million.

How in the world can schools like that compete with schools in the Big Ten in athletics when the financial playing field is so unbalanced? And we haven’t even factored in ADVERTISING revenues from the expanded network, just cable subscription revenues.

The answer is simple; they won’t be able to.

We are heading towards a future where there will be four or so superconferences made up of 64 or so teams. That will be your new Division I. This will also change the bowl landscape, and perhaps pave a way for a playoff system; the money will match the demand for it, even though I am not interested in a playoff.

Schools like Iowa State will likely find their way into one of the superconferences and they will reap in revenue sharing, but likely nothing like the Big Ten or SEC.

Notre Dame AD Jack Swarbrick said weeks ago that the Irish would likely have to take a long hard look at joining a conference if there was going to be a seismic shift in college football.

Get ready Jack, the big one is coming. Because if you are not presently in the Big Ten or SEC, or one of the teams that will be, your house is built on sand, with few exceptions. Perhaps you are one of those exceptions..then again, if you don’t have Big Ten schools to play on NBC, you might not be.

Just to be clear, when this does happen, the Big Ten will cease to exist. Let's not pretend otherwise.

I'm on the edge of my seat for the Iowa-Rutgers rivalry to begin! (or whatever other marketed rivalry I'm told I'll need to get fired up about)
 
I'm on the edge of my seat for the Iowa-Rutgers rivalry to begin! (or whatever other marketed rivalry I'm told I'll need to get fired up about)

Um, that would be Nebby. It will be kind of like the PSU rivalry that has developed with Iowa, but they will be right next door.

But nice job trying the throw the Rutgers red-herring out there.
 
Why would I want to write for the Register when more Iowa fans can read what I write here each month? Plus I don't have deadlines to worry about :)
 
This may add up $$$ wise, but if 5 teams are added to the Big 10, enjoy this year, Nebraska will swallow up all the success Iowa has built over the last 4 years. Expansion favors Iowa in the wallet, but kills them in wins and losses on the field and on the recruiting trail.
 
This may add up $$$ wise, but if 5 teams are added to the Big 10, enjoy this year, Nebraska will swallow up all the success Iowa has built over the last 4 years. Expansion favors Iowa in the wallet, but kills them in wins and losses on the field and on the recruiting trail.

Your argument is invalid because your user name is ISU4LYF. ;)

Nebraska is not the team that it once was and neither is Iowa. As a whole I think the Iowa/Nebby rivalry will be evenly matched.
 
So what happens to the schools that join which don't have a FB program?
 
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