JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
Can Iowa Bounce Back? | Hawkeye Nation
We’ve made it to Friday. Seemed like it took a long time to get here this week, which is typically the case after Iowa loses a football game.
At least for me. It feels like it takes forever before the Hawks get the chance to wash away that feeling.
This week, they’ll step on the Kinnick Stadium turf as underdogs. It’s the first time this season that Iowa has been an opening line underdog, which is what I expected last January when I gave my first hard and fast look at this season. I felt that the Ohio State game would be the only game Iowa would not be favored in this season.
Yet here the Hawks sit at 7-3.
We’ve been over this ground, we’ve tried coming up with reasons or explanations to make us, the fans, feel better. It’s a normal human reaction and for some, an outright requirement. Some folks sleep better once they have exacted their pound of flesh from he who should be blamed.
It’s Friday, so the crows have picked over the carrion. No one is pleased with 7-3, least of all the players. Yet, they have to strap the helmets back on tomorrow (Saturday) and take on the #9 team in the nation, a program that Iowa has beaten just three times since I was born in 1971.
Can they do it?
I think they can and if they do beat Ohio State, I won’t feel like it’s all that big of an upset.
Call me crazy or call this whatever you want, but I firmly believe Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa is a more effective quarterback to exploit Iowa’s soft spots on defense than is Terrelle Pryor.
Pryor is the better athlete, but Persa is the better passer and the Northwestern offense dovetails the Iowa defense; it’s strengths can hurt Iowa.
So can a power running game, which the Buckeyes used in last year’s 27-24 win the Shoe. I don’t expect a repeat of that in Kinnick.
Back to Pryor. I realize is 5th rated passer in the NCAA, just two spots behind Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi. I realize he has 22 touchdown passes this year, the same number as Stanzi. I realize that at 6-6, 240 he can run like the wind blows. But he is not as frenetic as Persa, who has a lot of Drew Tate in him.
I recently listened to former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson talking about how to defend Michael Vick. He said that you want to have a controlled pass rush; you don’t want to get too far upfield because the last thing a defensive lineman should do against Vick is get behind him, because that opens up his eyes for the run.
For years, Iowa has been so disciplined in this area and we have seen it several times this season. We saw a controlled rush against Denard Robinson. We saw it last week against Persa, too…the road to the quarterback may look clean and clear, but the players are taught to stay in their lanes and converge as a unit. I felt the Iowa pass rush on Dan Persa was as good as we have seen it all year; the kid is just a player and the Hawks were on the field for 50 plays in the second half in part because the offense could not consistently convert third downs.
I realize Pryor is completing over 67% of his passes this year, which is about where Stanzi is. I know that he has completed 10 straight passes on three different occasions this year, including a school record 16 straight against Ohio.
Yet, Ohio State has played one of the easiest schedules of any team in the Big Ten (the 85th best according to Sagarin.) Wisconsin is #83, Michigan State #63 and Iowa #48.
Here are Pryor’s numbers against decent competition:
Penn State: 8-13, 139 yards, 2TD 1INT
@Wisconsin: 14-28 156 yards 0TD, 1INT
@Illinois: 9-16, 76 yards 2TD, 1INT
Miami (FL): 12-27, 233 yards 1TD, 1 INT
In those four games, he is 43-84 (51%) with 5TD and 4INT. He did run for more than 100 yards in the Miami and Illinois games, however, and he has that ability.
But I just don’t see him running wild on Iowa this week. He is going to have to go to the air. He is on record this week as saying this game plan the coaches have put in for the Hawkeyes is his favorite since arriving at Ohio State, better than the game plan for Oregon where they turned him loose.
Perhaps the Ohio State coaches are going to try to increase the play calling tempo and run the Iowa defense ragged. However, they don’t do this on a regular basis, and Pryor is not Persa. Pryor has had a lot of home run throws this year, but Iowa rarely gives those up. Perhaps they are going to try the dink and dunk route, but that is not his game and I hope that is what they try to do.
Of course, the Iowa offense has to come to play and the Ohio State defense is its usual stingy self. I have few ideas as to what has been plaguing the Iowa offense in the past two games.
Through the eight game mark, which was the 37-6 win over Michigan State, Iowa had been averaging 34.1 points per game and converting 51% of their third down attempts.
In the past two games, they have scored a combined 35 points and are just 7 of 26 on third downs, which is a 2007-like 27%. Can having your third string right guard starting in those two games make THAT much difference? I just don’t have the answers.
Yet for 80% of this season, the Iowa offense had been executing at a level rarely seen in the Ken O’Keefe era. Is it crazy to think that kind of efficiency could return as inexplicably as it left? Perhaps not.
I think Iowa is going to give Ohio State everything it has. If they execute the way they have for the majority of this season AND win the turnover battle, I think they’ll win the game.
However, as much as I hope that level of offensive execution returns, it seems folly to assume it will come back from the nether regions it has disappeared to.
So my head lean towards picking OSU to win this game, while my heart is pulling for the black and gold.
Then again, my head picked Iowa to go 12-0 this year…so that may be an encouraging notion.
We’ve made it to Friday. Seemed like it took a long time to get here this week, which is typically the case after Iowa loses a football game.
At least for me. It feels like it takes forever before the Hawks get the chance to wash away that feeling.
This week, they’ll step on the Kinnick Stadium turf as underdogs. It’s the first time this season that Iowa has been an opening line underdog, which is what I expected last January when I gave my first hard and fast look at this season. I felt that the Ohio State game would be the only game Iowa would not be favored in this season.
Yet here the Hawks sit at 7-3.
We’ve been over this ground, we’ve tried coming up with reasons or explanations to make us, the fans, feel better. It’s a normal human reaction and for some, an outright requirement. Some folks sleep better once they have exacted their pound of flesh from he who should be blamed.
It’s Friday, so the crows have picked over the carrion. No one is pleased with 7-3, least of all the players. Yet, they have to strap the helmets back on tomorrow (Saturday) and take on the #9 team in the nation, a program that Iowa has beaten just three times since I was born in 1971.
Can they do it?
I think they can and if they do beat Ohio State, I won’t feel like it’s all that big of an upset.
Call me crazy or call this whatever you want, but I firmly believe Northwestern quarterback Dan Persa is a more effective quarterback to exploit Iowa’s soft spots on defense than is Terrelle Pryor.
Pryor is the better athlete, but Persa is the better passer and the Northwestern offense dovetails the Iowa defense; it’s strengths can hurt Iowa.
So can a power running game, which the Buckeyes used in last year’s 27-24 win the Shoe. I don’t expect a repeat of that in Kinnick.
Back to Pryor. I realize is 5th rated passer in the NCAA, just two spots behind Iowa’s Ricky Stanzi. I realize he has 22 touchdown passes this year, the same number as Stanzi. I realize that at 6-6, 240 he can run like the wind blows. But he is not as frenetic as Persa, who has a lot of Drew Tate in him.
I recently listened to former Cowboys coach Jimmy Johnson talking about how to defend Michael Vick. He said that you want to have a controlled pass rush; you don’t want to get too far upfield because the last thing a defensive lineman should do against Vick is get behind him, because that opens up his eyes for the run.
For years, Iowa has been so disciplined in this area and we have seen it several times this season. We saw a controlled rush against Denard Robinson. We saw it last week against Persa, too…the road to the quarterback may look clean and clear, but the players are taught to stay in their lanes and converge as a unit. I felt the Iowa pass rush on Dan Persa was as good as we have seen it all year; the kid is just a player and the Hawks were on the field for 50 plays in the second half in part because the offense could not consistently convert third downs.
I realize Pryor is completing over 67% of his passes this year, which is about where Stanzi is. I know that he has completed 10 straight passes on three different occasions this year, including a school record 16 straight against Ohio.
Yet, Ohio State has played one of the easiest schedules of any team in the Big Ten (the 85th best according to Sagarin.) Wisconsin is #83, Michigan State #63 and Iowa #48.
Here are Pryor’s numbers against decent competition:
Penn State: 8-13, 139 yards, 2TD 1INT
@Wisconsin: 14-28 156 yards 0TD, 1INT
@Illinois: 9-16, 76 yards 2TD, 1INT
Miami (FL): 12-27, 233 yards 1TD, 1 INT
In those four games, he is 43-84 (51%) with 5TD and 4INT. He did run for more than 100 yards in the Miami and Illinois games, however, and he has that ability.
But I just don’t see him running wild on Iowa this week. He is going to have to go to the air. He is on record this week as saying this game plan the coaches have put in for the Hawkeyes is his favorite since arriving at Ohio State, better than the game plan for Oregon where they turned him loose.
Perhaps the Ohio State coaches are going to try to increase the play calling tempo and run the Iowa defense ragged. However, they don’t do this on a regular basis, and Pryor is not Persa. Pryor has had a lot of home run throws this year, but Iowa rarely gives those up. Perhaps they are going to try the dink and dunk route, but that is not his game and I hope that is what they try to do.
Of course, the Iowa offense has to come to play and the Ohio State defense is its usual stingy self. I have few ideas as to what has been plaguing the Iowa offense in the past two games.
Through the eight game mark, which was the 37-6 win over Michigan State, Iowa had been averaging 34.1 points per game and converting 51% of their third down attempts.
In the past two games, they have scored a combined 35 points and are just 7 of 26 on third downs, which is a 2007-like 27%. Can having your third string right guard starting in those two games make THAT much difference? I just don’t have the answers.
Yet for 80% of this season, the Iowa offense had been executing at a level rarely seen in the Ken O’Keefe era. Is it crazy to think that kind of efficiency could return as inexplicably as it left? Perhaps not.
I think Iowa is going to give Ohio State everything it has. If they execute the way they have for the majority of this season AND win the turnover battle, I think they’ll win the game.
However, as much as I hope that level of offensive execution returns, it seems folly to assume it will come back from the nether regions it has disappeared to.
So my head lean towards picking OSU to win this game, while my heart is pulling for the black and gold.
Then again, my head picked Iowa to go 12-0 this year…so that may be an encouraging notion.
