Mandel: BT expansion will not make money

PJHawk

Well-Known Member
Based on his numbers it seems to be a valid point - a BT championship game would not make enough money to cover the loss of each school's TV/Bowl shared revenue that would go to the new 12th school.

Expanding to 12 teams could hurt Big Ten in BCS, pocketbook - Stewart Mandel - SI.com

"Contrary to what many assume, a Big Ten championship game would not necessarily be a cash cow. The SEC's event -- by far the most successful of its kind -- generated $14.3 million in shared revenue last season ($1.2 million per team). The ACC's, which has been a disappointing disaster, hovers closer to $5 million. Even if we assume the Big Ten's loot comes in closer to the SEC's, that's still a drop in the bucket compared to the league's two biggest revenue generators: regular-season television deals and BCS/bowl payouts.

The Big Ten does not publicly release revenue-sharing figures, but it's been reported that its rights deals with ABC/ESPN and the Big Ten Network generate about $212 million annually. (That's in addition to the league's direct profits from its jointly owned network.) Add in this season's two BCS berths ($22.3 million) and five other bowl berths (about $14 million), and we're talking a minimally estimated $248.3 million in shared revenue, or $22.6 million per team.

Therefore, any potential 12th team would have to add $22.6 million in "value" to renegotiated TV and bowl deals to prevent the others from losing money. With all due respect to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Rutgers (the most commonly discussed candidates), there's only one viable school that could guarantee that kind of gold mine: Notre Dame. The Irish rejected the Big Ten's last invitation in 1999, and the school has given no indication it's willing to reconsider."
 
I think Nebraska would be accretive to the B10, Mizzou could be close to a break even and the others (besides ND) would be dilutive.
 
Based on his numbers it seems to be a valid point - a BT championship game would not make enough money to cover the loss of each school's TV/Bowl shared revenue that would go to the new 12th school.

Expanding to 12 teams could hurt Big Ten in BCS, pocketbook - Stewart Mandel - SI.com

"Contrary to what many assume, a Big Ten championship game would not necessarily be a cash cow. The SEC's event -- by far the most successful of its kind -- generated $14.3 million in shared revenue last season ($1.2 million per team). The ACC's, which has been a disappointing disaster, hovers closer to $5 million. Even if we assume the Big Ten's loot comes in closer to the SEC's, that's still a drop in the bucket compared to the league's two biggest revenue generators: regular-season television deals and BCS/bowl payouts.

The Big Ten does not publicly release revenue-sharing figures, but it's been reported that its rights deals with ABC/ESPN and the Big Ten Network generate about $212 million annually. (That's in addition to the league's direct profits from its jointly owned network.) Add in this season's two BCS berths ($22.3 million) and five other bowl berths (about $14 million), and we're talking a minimally estimated $248.3 million in shared revenue, or $22.6 million per team.

Therefore, any potential 12th team would have to add $22.6 million in "value" to renegotiated TV and bowl deals to prevent the others from losing money. With all due respect to Missouri, Pittsburgh, Syracuse and Rutgers (the most commonly discussed candidates), there's only one viable school that could guarantee that kind of gold mine: Notre Dame. The Irish rejected the Big Ten's last invitation in 1999, and the school has given no indication it's willing to reconsider."


Here's how you get to $22M:

1. A championship game will add $15M to the pot, easy. If the SEC is doing that, then the Big 10, with MANY more TVs should eclipse that.

2. An additional bowl game (going from 7 to 8) would be another $2M.

3. A 12th team means more games, which means more TV games, which means more TV revenue. I'd have to believe that it's be worth more than $5M per year.

4. In addition, I'd have to believe that the 12th member would bring a significant TV market (St.Louis/KC for Missouri, NY/NJ for Rutgers, etc). Just having more TV sets alone would be reason enough to renegotiate a TV contract higher.

So I don't know what Mandel's talking about here. It seems pretty easy to get to $22M to me.
 
Here's how you get to $22M:

So I don't know what Mandel's talking about here. It seems pretty easy to get to $22M to me.

Pretty easy? ya I guess so, especially when you just make up hypothetical increases in tv and bowl revenues to get that total.
 

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