Lunardi & MTSU/Southern Miss Hypocrisy

1977Hawkeye

Well-Known Member
Edit: This is not Joe Lunardi, but rather Eamonn Brennan, as someone else pointed out.

Middle Tennessee [28-5 (19-1), RPI: 29, SOS: 135] As I mentioned in the introduction, after its loss to FIU (Richard Pitino strikes!) in the semifinals of the Sun Belt conference tournament Sunday, Middle Tennessee now becomes one of the most interesting bubble cases in recent memory. On the one hand, MTSU is obviously a good basketball team. You can watch them play -- YouTube is a wonderful thing -- or you can delve into their efficiency statistics; as of this writing, Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency ranks hold Middle up as the 31st-best team in the country. The Blue Raiders went 19-1 in their league, which is admittedly a very bad league, but still -- 19-1. And they pushed themselves, Long Beach State-style, in their scheduling, ending up with a top-10 nonconference SOS and a top 25 RPI for their troubles. Oh, also, one more thing: It would be a real bummer to see this team miss the tournament for the second year in a row. It deserves to go, and conference tournament automatic qualifiers are profoundly stupid. (Why the Sun Belt would prefer to send the winner of a weekend-long crapshoot as opposed to its 19-1 regular-season champ, I'll never know.) But the unfortunate "having said that" part of all this is as follows: Middle has beaten zero top-50 opponents and just two teams in the top 100. All of their other 26 wins came against teams ranked outside the top 100. Yes, you read that right: Of Middle Tennessee's 28 wins, 26 came against teams ranked below the RPI top 100. I utterly loathe the chorus of "who have they beaten, they'd be the 10th-worst team in BCS Conference X herp derp" bleating that comes from fans of high-major bubble schools this time of year. It's gross. But if a Kentucky fan were to ask that about Middle Tennessee, could you really form a cohesive defense? A 3-point home win over Ole Miss is your best shot, and I have no idea whether that will be enough to convince the committee.

Southern Miss [23-8 (12-4), RPI: 36, SOS: 76] Southern Miss! With all due respect to the Golden Eagles, who are a well-coached outfit under first-year man Donnie Tyndall, I kind of can't believe Southern Miss is on the bubble. That win over Denver is really good and only looking better by the day (Joe Scott's boys are a top-30 efficiency squad), but other than that Southern Miss hasn't beaten anyone. Their inclusion in the field would be based solely off some decent computer numbers and the Golden Eagles' willingness to go out and play people in the nonconference (at Arizona, at La. Tech, Wichita State in Wichita). That is an admirable trait, but you have to beat somebody along the way, right?


Seems to me like Lunardi is talking out both sides of his mouth on this one.. In MTSU's case, he talks about how they "pushed themselves" with their schedule, despite 26 of their 28 wins coming from outside the RPI Top 100, and then dismisses (or actually ridicules) the "they haven't beaten anybody" comments that people use against them.

Then in the next paragraph, he turns around and blasts Southern Miss because they haven't beaten anybody. The same argument he is using for MTSU he is essentially using against Southern Miss. Too funny.

Go figure. Regardless, it seems this guy has a love affair with MTSU.. He seems jilted that they didn't get the automatic bid and have to depend on an at-large and feels bad for them because they were left out last year, too.

To steal his own "if they were that good" words he used in reference to Iowa: If MTSU was that good, how come they couldn't win the conference tournament in such a bad league?
 
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The author of this piece wants them in but their resume doesn't support it. The committee will look at their resume IMO. I think the author even realizes they won't make it...but doesn't like it.
 
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maybe i misinterpreted his terrible writing style, but i dont think he is saying that MTSU should be in.
 
maybe i misinterpreted his terrible writing style, but i dont think he is saying that MTSU should be in.

This quote from him makes me think otherwise:

Oh, also, one more thing: It would be a real bummer to see this team miss the tournament for the second year in a row. It deserves to go, and conference tournament automatic qualifiers are profoundly stupid.

But he may think that they actually will not get in, in reality. And yeah, like Windsor said, he seems pretty peeved about it. MTSU and Southern Miss may not actually get in though despite their RPI's.. I looked it up, and I think Missouri State was left out back in what, 2007, with an RPI of 21?
 
This is the 1st time I've seen someone admit that some of these "bubble" teams are really just teams they want to make the tournament rather than teams that actually will make the tournament.
 
RPI is pretty much the only thing propping these teams up.

-Ole Miss is MTSU's ONLY top 100 win! Their overall SOS is pretty bad.
-Southern Miss has about 4 top 100 wins, but they are all 90+, so that could change.

St. Mary's is another team that is probably in, but I don't think their resume supports it.
 
How do these teams get such high RPI's with such bad SOS's? It sure seems like beating top 100 teams count for nothing while beating 300+ teams count for everything.
 
This quote from him makes me think otherwise:

Oh, also, one more thing: It would be a real bummer to see this team miss the tournament for the second year in a row. It deserves to go, and conference tournament automatic qualifiers are profoundly stupid.

But he may think that they actually will not get in, in reality. And yeah, like Windsor said, he seems pretty peeved about it. MTSU and Southern Miss may not actually get in though despite their RPI's.. I looked it up, and I think Missouri State was left out back in what, 2007, with an RPI of 21?

Interesting that everyone was crying about the latter part of this quote just the other day. It's amazing how you can both disagree and agree with these writers in the same sentence.
 
How do these teams get such high RPI's with such bad SOS's? It sure seems like beating top 100 teams count for nothing while beating 300+ teams count for everything.

It's because of a common misconception about the RPI. All wins count the EXACT SAME in the W-L portion of the RPI formula.

There is no extra weight to a win against Indiana, or punishment for a loss to Stony Brook. Now, good teams obviously bump up the SOS part, but it is the same bump whether you win or lose.

If Iowa went 0-31 or 31-0, 75% of their RPI score would be exactly the same.

If they were 1-31, their RPI would be the exact same whether the lone win was at home to Indiana or at home to S Carolina St.

Only 25% of the RPI score has to do with wins and losses and 0% of that is who you beat.
 
It's because of a common misconception about the RPI. All wins count the EXACT SAME in the W-L portion of the RPI formula.

There is no extra weight to a win against Indiana, or punishment for a loss to Stony Brook. Now, good teams obviously bump up the SOS part, but it is the same bump whether you win or lose.

If Iowa went 0-31 or 31-0, 75% of their RPI score would be exactly the same.

If they were 1-31, their RPI would be the exact same whether the lone win was at home to Indiana or at home to S Carolina St.

Only 25% of the RPI score has to do with wins and losses and 0% of that is who you beat.


Thanks I didn't know that. So a team that has a lot of wins against bad teams can build a good RPI and a team with no more wins then us can build a good RPI with a great SOS. Seems like the RPI rewards mediocracy in 2 different ways. You can rack up a bunch of lousy wins or lose to a bunch of good teams.
 
How can a system that "thinks far enough ahead" to factor in opponents opponents, not think its important how you play against the teams you play. They just as well use an abacus to calculate who should make the tourney if they are going to use such a dated method.
 
Thanks I didn't know that. So a team that has a lot of wins against bad teams can build a good RPI and a team with no more wins then us can build a good RPI with a great SOS. Seems like the RPI rewards mediocracy in 2 different ways. You can rack up a bunch of lousy wins or lose to a bunch of good teams.

Yeah, pretty much.

If you avoid losses at home, and schedule some gimmes on the road out of conference, you can soup up your RPI without being very good.
 
Maybe I just don't know enough about the other ranking systems but can they be manipulated also? Seems bad for the game to be able to manipulate the main ranking system for the tournament. Could cause serious scheduling problems down the road.
 
I wouldn't worry about Mid Tenn or So. Miss. They are doing some hard NIT time.

I don't think they both will get into the NCAA. But I'm not convinced MTSU isn't getting in, but we'll see.. Missouri St. had an RPI of 21 a few years back and was left out. I hope you're right.
 
Maybe I just don't know enough about the other ranking systems but can they be manipulated also? Seems bad for the game to be able to manipulate the main ranking system for the tournament. Could cause serious scheduling problems down the road.

Pretty sure any system could be manipulated, but the RPI is by far the one that can be manipulated the greatest. Simply play on the road and your manipulating it, hence the mid majors having such high RPI's yet beating no real good teams. Put it this way if Iowa played the same OOC but with half on the road, our RPI would be in the 40's somewhere but the same SOS, go figure...
 

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