Not quite that easy when the Moneylines will have Duke and UK/Wisky (if MSU beats Duke) as strong favorites. I think I saw that Duke ML is -235. MSU vs Kentucky would be at least that and MSU vs Wisky would probably be somewhere in the -175 neighborhood.
Is a casino really sweating a $1,000,000 payout? I really doubt it. That particular sportsbook manager might be, but overall that's a blip on a casino's bottom line, when the overall profit/loss from March Madness is probably still in the black.