I've got a project for data-miners out there (does Iowa play better with "nothing to lose"?)

C

CP87

Well-Known Member
I have a general sense that the Hawks have played much better in recent seasons once they no longer have anything to play for. That is, it seems like once they are essentially eliminated from B1G West championship contender (if not mathematically, at least by overwhelming probability), they loosen up and start slinging. Before that point, they play like they are trying to turn a lump of coal up their butt into a diamond.

This year they got to the "nothing to lose" point sooner than usual after the 0-2 start. The last 2 weeks have looked pretty good.

Last year I would say they got there after starting 1-2 following losses to Mich and PSU. 5-1 thereafter with close 2-pt loss to Wisc.

In 2018 it took 3 straight losses to PSU, Purdue, and NW to eliminate hope because Wisky was so far down. They stunk it up through that stretch, and then closed out by beating Illinois (63-0) and Neb (31-28), and beating Miss St in a bowl.

2016 was kind of all over the place. They were eliminated after starting 1-3 in the B1G, then they beat Minn and crushed OSU, then they got humiliated against Wisky and Purdue, and then trounced Nebraska and won a bowl.

I think it would be interesting to see an opponent-adjusted yards per play, both offensively and defensively, from before elimination to after elimination over the past 3+ years. I doubt anyone has both the data and interest to pull that off, but I wonder if I am just deceiving myself with this, or if it is legit.

Based upon this theory (entirely unproven, backed up by no statistical evidence), bet the mortgage on Iowa this Saturday.
 
This is above my pay grade. I will let the smart people nerd out on the research and the statistical data. Imo, KF is just slow to make adjustments, it often takes multiple games or even years for him to adjust.

I wouldn't bet the mortgage on Iowa this Saturday. Despite the 0-4 record it looks like they haven't quit on Franklin, so the game is going to be close. I wouldn't touch this game.
 
I think it's a really interesting question, but I have a suspicion it's more down to other factors leading towards Iowa finishing stronger than they start. First and foremost, the program being geared towards defense and a conservative, run heavy offense - all of which suits cold weather play. Iowa also seems to put execution (i.e. consistently perfect execution) ahead of talent. It stands to reason that, as the year goes on and the reps add up, that Iowa's execution-based philosophy pulls them closer to/even with/ahead of more talented teams.
 
trj said:
This is above my pay grade. I will let the smart people nerd out on the research and the statistical data. Imo, KF is just slow to make adjustments, it often takes multiple games or even years for him to adjust.

I wouldn't bet the mortgage on Iowa this Saturday. Despite the 0-4 record it looks like they haven't quit on Franklin, so the game is going to be close. I wouldn't touch this game.
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Yeah I agree with you that the hawks are in the perfect situation to lose this game. The hawks are or were slightly favored but on the road against a wounded team that "HAS" to win a game. Kirk many times loses a game like this but I think the team is going to be relaxed and perform well and win. No Barkley and no McSorley throwing up prayers that only his teammates catch.
 
trj said:
This is above my pay grade. I will let the smart people nerd out on the research and the statistical data. Imo, KF is just slow to make adjustments, it often takes multiple games or even years for him to adjust.

I wouldn't bet the mortgage on Iowa this Saturday. Despite the 0-4 record it looks like they haven't quit on Franklin, so the game is going to be close. I wouldn't touch this game.
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Um, as a math teacher, I can speak for all of us "nerds" that we are not nerds and we are deeply offended by being called nerds.







We're geeks. Get it right.
 
I have pondered this myself and there are a lot of factors to consider.

Does Iowa simply get better later in the season?

Does Iowa just simply finish the season against bad teams and play the better teams early?

I think rhe real mystery is why does Iowa lose to Purdue, NW, Wiscy and PSU so much? Especially NW and Purdue. If they would just beat NW and Purdue every year, Iowa would be a top-15 team every year.
 
Maybe the title to this thread shouldn't be "does Iowa play better with nothing to lose"

Maybe it should've been called, "why does Iowa football play not to lose". It's not so much the players, as it is some of our staff. We've seen it over and over. We're running the ball very well, so why pass? Or visa versa.
 
The other spin on this would be...

In a year where IOWA loses early and is therefore "playing with nothing to lose" they are likely to be a young team or one that's struggling. As such there's more room for improvement than with a team that is already playing well. So it could appear that they're playing better with "nothing to lose" when the reality is... they just took longer to find their rhythm and are hitting stride later in the season.

Secondly, you could postulate that an opponent might not come in as focused, fired-up, whatever, for a .500 team as they would for an undefeated team. So that enhances IOWA's chances of winning as well.

Both things that can't really be measure in W/L without extended theorems.

Either way, we need a decisive W on Saturday.
 
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After thinking Kurt could work black magic from mid October on back in 2002-2004, I have seen enough Iowa football to know that there is very little correlation between games where Iowa has "nothing to lose" and games with something on the line. There have been plenty of just absolutely awful ends to seasons even when there is nothing to play for. 2006 ended on a horrible losing streak. 2007 we lost to Western Michigan on senior day. 2008 we got better but that was on the line gelling (with Shonn Greene toting the rock) and Stnazi slowly improving. 2009 was a wash. 2010 was an epic turd. 2011-2014 meh. 2015 we played well with things on the line until the last drive against Sparty. I blocked out 2016. 2017 the team kind of disappeared after the miracle OSU win, putting up like 60 some yards against Wisconsin the next week and later losing to Purdouche when the pressure was off. 2018 had a bad 3 game losing streak and only turned around because we played Illinois and Nebraska to close it out.
 
Stanley wasn't good under pressure for much of his time at Iowa. I think he did eventually improve on that later on, but still was pretty inconsistent under pressure. That in itself, may account for any tendency to not play well with something on the line.
 
okeefe4prez said:
After thinking Kurt could work black magic from mid October on back in 2002-2004, I have seen enough Iowa football to know that there is very little correlation between games where Iowa has "nothing to lose" and games with something on the line. There have been plenty of just absolutely awful ends to seasons even when there is nothing to play for. 2006 ended on a horrible losing streak. 2007 we lost to Western Michigan on senior day. 2008 we got better but that was on the line gelling (with Shonn Greene toting the rock) and Stnazi slowly improving. 2009 was a wash. 2010 was an epic turd. 2011-2014 meh. 2015 we played well with things on the line until the last drive against Sparty. I blocked out 2016. 2017 the team kind of disappeared after the miracle OSU win, putting up like 60 some yards against Wisconsin the next week and later losing to Purdouche when the pressure was off. 2018 had a bad 3 game losing streak and only turned around because we played Illinois and Nebraska to close it out.
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We beat Barry Alvarez the last four times he played us. And they were top ten in the country one of those years and it was Barry's last game at Camp Randell another time. All four of those games were in November.

Boy has that worm ever turned.

Kirk' and his agent parlayed "black magic" from 2002-2004 into numerous real and perceived job offers-and a sucession of contract extensions that continue to this day
 
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